Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
AAPL

AAPL Research brief

Apple Inc.

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$344.63(−1.23%)

Sagehood’s view on AAPL

Apple Inc. · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

57Neutral50 is balancedScore change −5 since 2026-10-29, from 62 to 57; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 49 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30In the current Top-7 book

Dated research brief

WhyApple's cash engine and intact uptrend support a neutral view, because $136,683 million of free cash flow and a 2.2% lower share count offset soft growth. The unresolved risk is valuation, since the $143.3 base fair value sits 58% below the $344.63 close.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is that the uptrend and cash engine could keep winning. Price holds $339.79 support with the 1-year channel up 34.2% per year, and $136,683 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow funds a 2.2% lower share count.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$77.90
Base
$143.30
Bull
$252.00

Base case −58% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-27. Peer-implied median $207.72 from 3 peer-median multiples. Those medians include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The market price implies more growth or higher margins than this model assumes, so its base case sits far below the close. The valuation specialist weighs that gap; it is not a forecast that the price will fall.

Against peers

Information Technology
MultipleAAPLGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)39.52×29.89×62nd
P/S10.93×6.59×67th
P/B47.47×8.30×92nd
FCF yield2.68%2.54%56th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$344.63 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−1.23%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run62 on 2026-10-29 → 57 on 2026-10-30 (−5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set27 names in Information Technology, listed with how they were chosen under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $344.63

+25.4% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

AAPL adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. AAPL adjusted close. Continuous series. $344.63 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3057Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2962Neutral70Method 4
2026-10-2853Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2758Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2656Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2357Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2256Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2157Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-1660Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-0958Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0758Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-0254Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0156Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-3056Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-2956Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2855Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2557Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective54Neutral68Method 4
2026-09-2357Neutral68Method 4
2026-09-1858Neutral72Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective59Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective55Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-0453Neutral75Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective58Neutral65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2857Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1455Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1354Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0755Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0655Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0455Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3151Neutral78Method 1
2026-07-2356Neutral57Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

AAPL research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bullish

Apple earns a 33.2% operating margin and converts 1.06 of net income into free cash flow, with $136,683 million trailing-twelve-month free cash flow and a 2.2% lower share count; growth of 14.2% trails the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $466,823 million with 14.2% growth, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $136,683 million, and the facts' period ends 2026-06-27 predate the 10-Q filed on 2026-07-31.

Why it matters now

High-margin hardware plus strong cash conversion funds a shrinking share count, which supports per-share earnings even when revenue growth trails peers.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-Q filed on 2026-07-31 is not yet reflected in these facts, so the newest quarter could change the growth and margin read. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
65
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.16
Weighted contribution
10.66
Business driver
Apple earns a 33.2% operating margin and converts 1.06 of net income into free cash flow, with $136,683 million trailing-twelve-month free cash flow and a 2.2% lower share count; growth of 14.2% trails the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median.
Mechanism
High-margin hardware plus strong cash conversion funds a shrinking share count, which supports per-share earnings even when revenue growth trails peers.
Countercase
The 10-Q filed on 2026-07-31 is not yet reflected in these facts, so the newest quarter could change the growth and margin read.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bullish

Score
65
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
10.66

Risk specialist

Bullish

Score
66
Evidence confidence
75
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
7.14

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
72
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
8.04

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.49

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.46

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Score
68
Evidence confidence
75
Weight in the score
0.27
Weighted contribution
18.38

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
22
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
2.85

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
53
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.20

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

AAPL: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

57

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 65Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Apple earns a 33.2% operating margin and converts 1.06 of net income into free cash flow, with $136,683 million trailing-twelve-month free cash flow and a 2.2% lower share count; growth of 14.2% trails the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median.

Why it matters

High-margin hardware plus strong cash conversion funds a shrinking share count, which supports per-share earnings even when revenue growth trails peers.

What argues against it

The 10-Q filed on 2026-07-31 is not yet reflected in these facts, so the newest quarter could change the growth and margin read.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 57.22. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.22. 62 on 2026-10-29 → 57 on 2026-10-30 (−5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    1-year log-channel +34.2%/yr (fit R² 0.71), +16.3% over 200-day average; holding $339.79 support (1 touch); wave-5 advance in primary impulse; 14-week RSI 65.2; view breaks below $330.52.

  3. Valuation specialist

    Base fair value of $143.3 sits 58% below the $344.63 close, and the bear case at $77.9 is 77% below it. The peer-implied median of $207.72 is 39.7% below the close, so comps contradict the price.

    This view cites the peer-implied figure, whose sector median this page flags. See Valuation & peers.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

AAPL: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $466,823 million with 14.2% growth, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $136,683 million, and the facts' period ends 2026-06-27 predate the 10-Q filed on 2026-07-31.

Valuation model

The base case pairs 5.9% revenue growth with a 29.3% FCF margin for a fair value of $143.3, 58% below the $344.63 close, while the peer-implied median of $207.72 rests on 3 implied prices and sits 39.7% below the close.

This analysis cites the peer-implied figure, whose sector median this page flags. See Valuation & peers.

Potential upside

  • Apple earns a 33.2% operating margin and converts 1.06 of net income into free cash flow, with $136,683 million trailing-twelve-month free cash flow and a 2.2% lower share count; growth of 14.2% trails the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median.

Potential downside

  • Base fair value of $143.3 sits 58% below the $344.63 close, and the bear case at $77.9 is 77% below it. The peer-implied median of $207.72 is 39.7% below the close, so comps contradict the price.

See the note under Key figures above.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month FCF margin above the 37.3% grid column would break the claim that the base case's 29.3% margin caps fair value near $143.3.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $344.63 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-27.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$77.90−77% vs close
Base
$143.30−58% vs close
Bull
$252.00−27% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $207.72 (−39.7% vs close)

Peers: the 27 Liquid 100 names in Information Technology that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The 27 names

AMD, APH, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, GEN, GLW, HPE, HPQ, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NOW, NVDA, ON, ORCL, PLTR, QCOM, SMCI, SNDK, WDC.

Multiples against the peer group

Information Technology · 27 companies in the group

Sector median includes AVGO, whose per-share figure failed the share-basis check in this research.

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)39.52×

    Peer median 29.89× · middle half 19.24× to 49.15× · 62nd percentile of the group

  • Price to sales10.93×

    Peer median 6.59× · middle half 4.55× to 12.88× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Price to book47.47×

    Peer median 8.30× · middle half 6.41× to 15.04× · 92nd percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield2.68%

    Peer median 2.54% · middle half 1.33% to 5.43% · 56th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 5 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) research | Sagehood