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AES

AES Research brief

AES Corporation

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$14.83(−1.46%)

Sagehood’s view on AES

AES Corporation · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

48Neutral50 is balancedScore change +3 since 2026-10-29, from 45 to 48; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 45 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyAES's accelerating revenue supports a neutral view, because the latest quarter grew 19.9% even as free cash flow stayed at −$1,720 million. The unresolved risk is filing reliability, since a non-reliance flag and an auditor change leave reported figures uncertain.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is that revenue acceleration and a washed-out channel could drive a rebound. Revenue grew 19.9% in the latest quarter, and the 90-day channel slopes 10.4% per year with price holding $14.52 support on three touches.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion below the −0.92 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

Peer-implied median $34.87 from 3 peer-median multiples.

Against peers

Utilities
MultipleAESGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)5.66×16.91×0th
P/S0.81×1.91×0th
P/B2.15×1.62×67th
FCF yield−16.22%−9.38%0th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$14.83 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−1.46%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run45 on 2026-10-29 → 48 on 2026-10-30 (+3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set3 names in Utilities: EXC, NEE, PCG. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $14.83

+2.4% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

AES adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. AES adjusted close. Continuous series. $14.83 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-08-26 to 2026-10-30 · 24 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (2 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3048Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-2945Neutral48Method 2
2026-10-2847Neutral49Method 2
2026-10-2750Neutral40Method 2
2026-10-2650Neutral49Method 2
2026-10-2350Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-2250Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-2152Neutral44Method 2
2026-10-1650Neutral48Method 2
2026-10-0945Neutral40Method 2
2026-10-0748Neutral50Method 2
2026-10-0252Neutral55Method 2
2026-10-0150Neutral55Method 2
2026-09-3047Neutral45Method 2
2026-09-2947Neutral42Method 2
2026-09-2848Neutral50Method 2
2026-09-2548Neutral50Method 2
2026-09-24 · retrospective49Neutral55Method 2
2026-09-2348Neutral55Method 2
2026-09-0451Neutral65Method 2
2026-09-01 · retrospective51Neutral55Method 2
2026-08-31 · retrospective54Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-2852Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-26 · retrospective50Neutral61Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

AES research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

AES shows accelerating revenue growth of 19.9% in the latest quarter and 8.5% trailing twelve months, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$1,720 million on capital spending of 51.7% of revenue, and debt figures are not available.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$1,720 million against $5,032 million operating cash flow, trailing-twelve-month revenue was $13,054 million with 8.5% growth, and the latest quarter's revenue grew 19.9%.

Why it matters now

Heavy capital spending of 51.7% of revenue consumes operating cash flow, so free cash flow stays negative even as revenue growth accelerates.

What could change the view

Countercase: Debt and net-debt-to-EBITDA figures are not available, so leverage and interest coverage cannot be assessed, and the next earnings report is four days away. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion below the −0.92 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
44
Evidence confidence
50
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
6.50
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.15
Weighted contribution
6.70
Business driver
AES shows accelerating revenue growth of 19.9% in the latest quarter and 8.5% trailing twelve months, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$1,720 million on capital spending of 51.7% of revenue, and debt figures are not available.
Mechanism
Heavy capital spending of 51.7% of revenue consumes operating cash flow, so free cash flow stays negative even as revenue growth accelerates.
Countercase
Debt and net-debt-to-EBITDA figures are not available, so leverage and interest coverage cannot be assessed, and the next earnings report is four days away.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.15
Weighted contribution
6.70

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.63

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
52
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.09

SEC filings specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
40
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
0.84

News specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
40
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.67

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.26
Weighted contribution
13.40

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.62

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.36

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

AES: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

48

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 44Evidence confidence 50
What the specialist sees

AES shows accelerating revenue growth of 19.9% in the latest quarter and 8.5% trailing twelve months, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$1,720 million on capital spending of 51.7% of revenue, and debt figures are not available.

Why it matters

Heavy capital spending of 51.7% of revenue consumes operating cash flow, so free cash flow stays negative even as revenue growth accelerates.

What argues against it

Debt and net-debt-to-EBITDA figures are not available, so leverage and interest coverage cannot be assessed, and the next earnings report is four days away.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion below the −0.92 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 48.30. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.30. 45 on 2026-10-29 → 48 on 2026-10-30 (+3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. SEC filings specialist

    Red flags dominate: 8-K 4.02 non-reliance dated 2025-03-11, 8-K 4.01 auditor change dated 2026-07-27, an NT late filing dated 2025-03-03, and an amendment dated 2025-04-11.

  3. Risk specialist

    Two elevated axes: earnings 4 days away and rising volatility, with 20-day annualized volatility of 5.9% above the 60-day 4.0%; drawdown now is −12.1% and dollar volume is bottom-decile.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free cash flow conversion below the -0.92 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

AES: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$1,720 million against $5,032 million operating cash flow, trailing-twelve-month revenue was $13,054 million with 8.5% growth, and the latest quarter's revenue grew 19.9%.

Valuation model

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of −$1,720 million is negative and the DCF was not computed because debt and net debt are unavailable, while the peer-implied median of $34.87 rests on 3 implied prices and sits 135.1% above the $14.83 close.

Potential upside

  • No DCF grid was computed because debt and net debt are unavailable, and the peer-implied median of $34.87 rests on 3 implied prices against a $14.83 close. Trailing-twelve-month FCF of −$1,720 million is negative.

Potential downside

  • AES shows accelerating revenue growth of 19.9% in the latest quarter and 8.5% trailing twelve months, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$1,720 million on capital spending of 51.7% of revenue, and debt figures are not available.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion below the −0.92 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow still negative at −$1,720 million would break the claim that the peer-implied median of $34.87 is a usable valuation anchor.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Cash-flow model unavailable

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $14.83 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $34.87 (+135.1% vs close)

Peers: the 3 Liquid 100 names in Utilities that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: EXC, NEE, PCG.

Multiples against the peer group

Utilities · 3 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)5.66×

    Peer median 16.91× · middle half 13.20× to 19.08× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales0.81×

    Peer median 1.91× · middle half 1.53× to 4.33× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to book2.15×

    Peer median 1.62× · middle half 1.26× to 2.40× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield−16.22%

    Peer median −9.38% · middle half −11.78% to −6.97% · 0th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 10 valuation inputs required conservative handling: no full-year operating income was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; total debt was unavailable; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

AES Corporation (AES) research | Sagehood