Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
AMD

AMD Research brief

Advanced Micro Devices

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$504.80(−10.88%)

Sagehood’s view on AMD

Advanced Micro Devices · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

49Neutral50 is balancedScore change −9 since 2026-10-29, from 58 to 49; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 49 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30

Dated research brief

WhyAMD's rapid growth and cash conversion support a neutral view, because revenue rose 39.5% to $41,305 million with $8,403 million of free cash flow. The unresolved risk is valuation, since the $126.1 base fair value sits 75% below the $504.80 close.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is that growth and cash generation could keep compounding. Revenue grew 39.5% to $41,305 million with the latest quarter up 50.1%, and $8,403 million of free cash flow converts 1.31 of net income.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$37.30
Base
$126.10
Bull
$285.40

Base case −75% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-27. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 3.1 times the estimate.

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

The market price implies more growth or higher margins than this model assumes, so its base case sits far below the close. The valuation specialist weighs that gap; it is not a forecast that the price will fall.

Against peers

Information Technology
MultipleAMDGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)129.44×29.89×92nd
P/S20.17×6.59×93rd
P/B12.39×8.30×68th
FCF yield1.01%2.61%19th

Those medians include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”.

Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$504.80 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−10.88%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run58 on 2026-10-29 → 49 on 2026-10-30 (−9 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set27 names in Information Technology, listed with how they were chosen under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $504.80

−5.2% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

AMD adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. AMD adjusted close. Continuous series. $504.80 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3049Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2958Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-2855Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2760Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2655Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2352Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2250Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2155Neutral48Method 4
2026-10-1652Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-0960Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-0762Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-0260Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-0165Bullish64Method 4
2026-09-3065Bullish64Method 4
2026-09-2965Bullish70Method 4
2026-09-2865Bullish70Method 4
2026-09-2565Bullish65Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective62Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2365Bullish70Method 4
2026-09-1863Neutral70Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective62Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective62Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-0455Neutral75Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective48Neutral65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2855Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective58Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1462Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1357Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0757Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0657Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0456Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3150Neutral65Method 1
2026-07-2350Neutral47Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

AMD research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bullish

AMD grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 39.5% to $41,305 million with the latest quarter up 50.1%, converted 1.31 of net income into $8,403 million free cash flow, and holds net cash with 44.14 interest coverage.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $41,305 million with 39.5% growth, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $8,403 million at 1.31 conversion, and the latest quarter's revenue grew 50.1%.

Why it matters now

Accelerating revenue growth with expanding gross and operating margins supports rising profitability, though the operating margin remains below the sector median.

What could change the view

Countercase: The next earnings report is four days away, and the 23.2% sector operating-margin median still sits above AMD's 15.7% trailing-twelve-month operating margin. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
73
Evidence confidence
50
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
6.50
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.14
Weighted contribution
9.88
Business driver
AMD grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 39.5% to $41,305 million with the latest quarter up 50.1%, converted 1.31 of net income into $8,403 million free cash flow, and holds net cash with 44.14 interest coverage.
Mechanism
Accelerating revenue growth with expanding gross and operating margins supports rising profitability, though the operating margin remains below the sector median.
Countercase
The next earnings report is four days away, and the 23.2% sector operating-margin median still sits above AMD's 15.7% trailing-twelve-month operating margin.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bullish

Score
73
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
9.88

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
3.25

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
6.71

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.55

News specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.49

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.27
Weighted contribution
14.88

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
22
Evidence confidence
35
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
2.56

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.58

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

AMD: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

49

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 73Evidence confidence 50
What the specialist sees

AMD grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 39.5% to $41,305 million with the latest quarter up 50.1%, converted 1.31 of net income into $8,403 million free cash flow, and holds net cash with 44.14 interest coverage.

Why it matters

Accelerating revenue growth with expanding gross and operating margins supports rising profitability, though the operating margin remains below the sector median.

What argues against it

The next earnings report is four days away, and the 23.2% sector operating-margin median still sits above AMD's 15.7% trailing-twelve-month operating margin.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 48.89. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.11. 58 on 2026-10-29 → 49 on 2026-10-30 (−9 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Valuation specialist

    Base fair value of $126.1 is 75% below the $504.80 close, and even the bull case at $285.4 is 43% below it. The peer-implied median of $164.97 is 67.3% below the close, so comps contradict the price.

    This view cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation range.
  3. Risk specialist

    Multiple elevated axes: earnings 4 days away, drawdown now of −22.3%, 75 large-move days over the last year, and 20-day annualized volatility of 65.4% above the 60-day 57.7%.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

AMD: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $41,305 million with 39.5% growth, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $8,403 million at 1.31 conversion, and the latest quarter's revenue grew 50.1%.

Valuation model

The base case pairs 25% revenue growth with a 20.3% FCF margin for a fair value of $126.1, 75% below the $504.80 close, while the peer-implied median of $164.97 rests on 3 implied prices and sits 67.3% below the close.

This analysis cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation range.

Potential upside

  • AMD grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 39.5% to $41,305 million with the latest quarter up 50.1%, converted 1.31 of net income into $8,403 million free cash flow, and holds net cash with 44.14 interest coverage.

Potential downside

  • Base fair value of $126.1 is 75% below the $504.80 close, and even the bull case at $285.4 is 43% below it. The peer-implied median of $164.97 is 67.3% below the close, so comps contradict the price.

See the note under Key figures above.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month FCF margin above the 28.3% grid column would break the claim that the base case's 20.3% margin caps fair value near $126.1.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $504.80 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-27.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$37.30−93% vs close
Base
$126.10−75% vs close
Bull
$285.40−43% vs close

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 3.1 times the estimate.

Peers: the 27 Liquid 100 names in Information Technology that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The 27 names

AAPL, APH, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, GEN, GLW, HPE, HPQ, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NOW, NVDA, ON, ORCL, PLTR, QCOM, SMCI, SNDK, WDC.

Multiples against the peer group

Information Technology · 27 companies in the group

Sector median includes AVGO, whose per-share figure failed the share-basis check in this research.

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)129.44×

    Peer median 29.89× · middle half 19.24× to 45.53× · 92nd percentile of the group

  • Price to sales20.17×

    Peer median 6.59× · middle half 4.55× to 11.36× · 93rd percentile of the group

  • Price to book12.39×

    Peer median 8.30× · middle half 6.41× to 15.99× · 68th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield1.01%

    Peer median 2.61% · middle half 1.75% to 5.43% · 19th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 10 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) research | Sagehood