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AMZN

AMZN Research brief

Amazon

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$240.35(−1.41%)

Sagehood’s view on AMZN

Amazon · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

47Neutral50 is balancedScore change +1 since 2026-10-29, from 46 to 47; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 49 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyAmazon's revenue growth and margin expansion support a neutral view, because revenue rose 15.4% to $797,455 million at a 13.1% operating margin. The unresolved risk is cash flow, since capital spending of 27.0% of revenue left free cash flow at −$46,892 million.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is that margin expansion and revenue growth could restore cash generation. Revenue grew 15.4% to $797,455 million at a 13.1% operating margin above the 8.7% sector median, and price holds $231.00 support.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion below the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

No fair-value range was computed for this run: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Against peers

Consumer Discretionary
MultipleAMZNGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)19.43×18.50×57th
P/S3.28×1.25×89th
P/B4.26×4.95×50th
FCF yield−1.79%3.64%11th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$240.35 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−1.41%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run46 on 2026-10-29 → 47 on 2026-10-30 (+1 point). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Discretionary: CCL, CMG, CVNA, F, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $240.35

+5.9% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

AMZN adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. AMZN adjusted close. Continuous series. $240.35 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3047Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2946Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2849Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2750Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2650Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2351Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2250Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2156Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-1649Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-0952Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0750Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-0250Neutral57Method 4
2026-10-0149Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-3048Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-2948Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-2849Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2552Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective50Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2351Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-1852Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective47Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective47Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-0448Neutral70Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective46Neutral70Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective53Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-2854Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1456Neutral60Method 2
2026-08-1353Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0752Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0652Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0448Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-3150Neutral64Method 1
2026-07-2341Bearish51Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

AMZN research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Amazon grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 15.4% to $797,455 million with a 13.1% operating margin above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median, but capital spending of 27.0% of revenue left trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at −$46,892 million.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $797,455 million with 15.4% growth, trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was $168,300 million, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$46,892 million on capital spending of 27.0% of revenue.

Why it matters now

Heavy capital investment of 27.0% of revenue absorbs operating cash flow, so free cash flow is negative even as the 13.1% operating margin expands.

What could change the view

Countercase: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at −$46,892 million, and the latest quarter's revenue growth slowed to 12.1% from 19.6%. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion below the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
51
Evidence confidence
80
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
10.40
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.21
Weighted contribution
10.58
Business driver
Amazon grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 15.4% to $797,455 million with a 13.1% operating margin above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median, but capital spending of 27.0% of revenue left trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at −$46,892 million.
Mechanism
Heavy capital investment of 27.0% of revenue absorbs operating cash flow, so free cash flow is negative even as the 13.1% operating margin expands.
Countercase
Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at −$46,892 million, and the latest quarter's revenue growth slowed to 12.1% from 19.6%.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
51
Evidence confidence
80
Weight in the score
0.21
Weighted contribution
10.58

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
40
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.15

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
40
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.95

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.65

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.48

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.24
Weighted contribution
11.49

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.79

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
51
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.47

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

AMZN: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

47

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 51Evidence confidence 80
What the specialist sees

Amazon grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 15.4% to $797,455 million with a 13.1% operating margin above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median, but capital spending of 27.0% of revenue left trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at −$46,892 million.

Why it matters

Heavy capital investment of 27.0% of revenue absorbs operating cash flow, so free cash flow is negative even as the 13.1% operating margin expands.

What argues against it

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at −$46,892 million, and the latest quarter's revenue growth slowed to 12.1% from 19.6%.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion below the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 47.54. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.54. 46 on 2026-10-29 → 47 on 2026-10-30 (+1 point). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Risk specialist

    Two elevated axes: rising volatility, with 20-day annualized volatility of 35.2% above the 60-day 28.1%, and drawdown now of −15.4% in the 15-25% band; downside beta of 1.62 exceeds beta to SPY of 1.47.

  3. Price-trend specialist

    1-year log-channel +16.3%/yr, −1.3% below 200-day average; holding $231.00 support (1 touch); wave-2 pullback in primary impulse; 14-week RSI 45.5; view breaks below $224.13.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free cash flow conversion below the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

AMZN: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $240.35 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

No fair-value range this session: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $228.85 (−4.8% vs close)

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Discretionary that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: CCL, CMG, CVNA, F, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Discretionary · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)19.43×

    Peer median 18.50× · middle half 15.19× to 44.69× · 57th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales3.28×

    Peer median 1.25× · middle half 0.97× to 3.09× · 89th percentile of the group

  • Price to book4.26×

    Peer median 4.95× · middle half 2.77× to 9.07× · 50th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield−1.79%

    Peer median 3.64% · middle half 1.71% to 4.17% · 11th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 12 valuation inputs required conservative handling: the filing date could not be independently verified; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; free cash flow was rolled from the latest available fiscal year; the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Amazon (AMZN) research | Sagehood