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BA Research brief

Boeing

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$171.55(−0.64%)

Sagehood’s view on BA

Boeing · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

38Bearish50 is balancedScore change −2 since 2026-10-29, from 40 to 38; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 49 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyBoeing's decelerating revenue and near-zero cash generation support a bearish view, because quarterly growth fell from 57.1% to 3.9% and free cash flow was $16 million. The unresolved risk is the −32.0% drawdown, which sits near the −33.7% one-year maximum.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case for the company is that margin expansion and a rate tailwind could revive cash generation. Gross margin expanded 20.5 points and operating margin 8.3 points, and the strongly negative rate beta of −1.43 gets a tailwind from falling rates.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the 0.85 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would confirm the cash weakness.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value · the discounted cash flow model declined

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the close ($171.55) was 8.1 times the model’s cash-flow estimate ($21.20), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $225.39).

Close $171.55 (recorded) on 2026-10-30; estimates use fundamentals to 2026-09-30.

Rejected model output (not a valuation)
Bear
$8.30
Base
$21.20
Bull
$86.00

The model’s own grid cells, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Against peers

Industrials
MultipleBAGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)17.70×23.26×25th
P/S1.42×6.39×0th
P/B20.65×5.84×75th
FCF yield0.01%3.81%0th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$171.55 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.64%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage7 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 3 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 7 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run40 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set4 names in Industrials: BE, CPRT, CSX, UBER. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $171.55

−21.4% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

BA adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. BA adjusted close. Continuous series. $171.55 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 · 4 publications

Each point is a verified published score.

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3038Bearish49Current method
2026-10-2940Bearish60Current method
2026-10-2835Bearish49Current method
2026-10-2730Bearish55Current method

Specialists

7 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

3 unavailable

BA research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Boeing's revenue growth is fading fast: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $94,913 million grew 17.5%, but quarterly growth decelerated from 57.1% to 3.9%, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was only $16 million against $4,012 million of operating cash flow.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $94,913 million grew 17.5% year over year, but quarterly revenue growth decelerated from 57.1% to 3.9%, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $16 million versus $4,012 million of operating cash flow, and net debt to EBITDA was 2.07 with equity after goodwill of −$11,231 million.

Why it matters now

Decelerating revenue growth combined with near-zero free cash flow conversion and negative equity after goodwill suggests the business is not yet generating cash to repair a leveraged balance sheet, so the improving margin trend is not enough to offset the cash weakness.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the margin expansion of 20.5 percentage points and 8.3 percentage points in gross margin reflects a durable cost reset that converts to cash in coming quarters, and the missing interest-coverage figure leaves debt service unassessed. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the 0.85 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would confirm the cash weakness.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.22
Weighted contribution
9.58
Business driver
Boeing's revenue growth is fading fast: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $94,913 million grew 17.5%, but quarterly growth decelerated from 57.1% to 3.9%, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was only $16 million against $4,012 million of operating cash flow.
Mechanism
Decelerating revenue growth combined with near-zero free cash flow conversion and negative equity after goodwill suggests the business is not yet generating cash to repair a leveraged balance sheet, so the improving margin trend is not enough to offset the cash weakness.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the margin expansion of 20.5 percentage points and 8.3 percentage points in gross margin reflects a durable cost reset that converts to cash in coming quarters, and the missing interest-coverage figure leaves debt service unassessed.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.22
Weighted contribution
9.58

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.51

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
32
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
3.45

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.78

News specialist

Bearish

Score
40
Evidence confidence
38
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.00

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
28
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.31
Weighted contribution
8.71

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
53
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.58

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Valuation specialist, Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Valuation specialist: The valuation specialist did not vote on this run because the valuation model declined to give a fair value: the close ($171.55) was 8.1 times the model’s cash-flow estimate ($21.20), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $225.39).
  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

BA: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

38

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 44Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Boeing's revenue growth is fading fast: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $94,913 million grew 17.5%, but quarterly growth decelerated from 57.1% to 3.9%, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was only $16 million against $4,012 million of operating cash flow.

Why it matters

Decelerating revenue growth combined with near-zero free cash flow conversion and negative equity after goodwill suggests the business is not yet generating cash to repair a leveraged balance sheet, so the improving margin trend is not enough to offset the cash weakness.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the margin expansion of 20.5 percentage points and 8.3 percentage points in gross margin reflects a durable cost reset that converts to cash in coming quarters, and the missing interest-coverage figure leaves debt service unassessed.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the 0.85 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would confirm the cash weakness.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 37.61. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.39. 40 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    1-year log-channel −5.8%/yr, 90-day −48.3%/yr; price −20.9% below 200-day average, death cross 43 days ago; holding $164.33 support (1 touch); wave-5 decline in primary downtrend; 14-week RSI 30.4; view breaks below $148.15.

  3. Risk specialist

    Dominant hazard axis is drawdown depth: drawdown from the one-year high −32.0% against maximum one-year drawdown −33.7%, with volatility trend rising (twenty-day annualized volatility 42.2% vs sixty-day annualized volatility 33.7%) and one-year large daily-move count 15.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free cash flow below the 0.85 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would confirm the cash weakness.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

BA: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation: the model declined to give a fair value

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $171.55 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the close ($171.55) was 8.1 times the model’s cash-flow estimate ($21.20), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $225.39).

Rejected model output (not a valuation)

The discounted cash flow grid cells this run nominated, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Bear
$8.30−95% vs close
Base
$21.20−88% vs close
Bull
$86.00−50% vs close

The bear and base cases sit more than 5× from the close: extreme scenarios, shown as the model computed them.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $225.39 (+31.4% vs close)

Peers: the 4 Liquid 100 names in Industrials that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BE, CPRT, CSX, UBER.

Multiples against the peer group

Industrials · 4 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)17.70×

    Peer median 23.26× · middle half 18.16× to 51.09× · 25th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.42×

    Peer median 6.39× · middle half 5.34× to 9.12× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to book20.65×

    Peer median 5.84× · middle half 4.52× to 13.45× · 75th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield0.01%

    Peer median 3.81% · middle half 2.66% to 5.09% · 0th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 4 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Boeing (BA) research | Sagehood