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CCL

CCL Research brief

Carnival Corporation

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$28.83(−0.03%)

Sagehood’s view on CCL

Carnival Corporation · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

56Neutral50 is balancedScore change +4 since 2026-10-29, from 52 to 56; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 60 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyCarnival's neutral case is driven by cash conversion, since $3,176 million of free cash flow converts at 1.01 against the 0.67 sector median. The unresolved risk is that net debt to operating income of 3.1 exceeds the 0.93 sector median.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is the leverage. Net debt to operating income of 3.1 exceeds the 0.93 sector median, revenue growth of 5.2% is decelerating, and the DCF bear case at $0.8 sits 97% below the $28.83 close, so the base case is fragile.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would break the deleveraging read.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$0.80
Base
$34.30
Bull
$113.00

Base case +19% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-08-31. Peer-implied median $44.11 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Against peers

Consumer Discretionary
MultipleCCLGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)12.70×19.43×14th
P/S1.45×1.25×56th
P/B2.83×5.20×25th
FCF yield7.91%3.08%89th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$28.83 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.03%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run52 on 2026-10-29 → 56 on 2026-10-30 (+4 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Discretionary: AMZN, CMG, CVNA, F, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $28.83

+1.8% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

CCL adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. CCL adjusted close. Continuous series. $28.83 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3056Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2952Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2855Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2753Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2655Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2354Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-2254Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-2160Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-1650Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0958Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-0758Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-0255Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-0150Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-3044Bearish65Method 4
2026-09-2942Bearish65Method 4
2026-09-2838Bearish75Method 4
2026-09-2542Bearish50Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective43Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-2342Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-1844Bearish65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective36Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective38Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-0443Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective44Bearish50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective45Neutral72Method 3
2026-08-2847Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective48Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective48Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective47Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective49Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-1454Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1356Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0759Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0658Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0459Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3149Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-2345Neutral49Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

CCL research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Carnival converts trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $3,176 million at 1.01, above the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median, but revenue growth of 5.2% is decelerating and net debt to operating income of 3.1 exceeds the 0.93 sector median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $3,176 million on $6,821 million of operating cash flow, with 1.01 free-cash-flow conversion against the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Why it matters now

Free cash flow of $3,176 million and 1.01 conversion show cash earnings cover reported profit, so the balance sheet can keep deleveraging if demand holds.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 3.1 net debt to operating income sits above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, and interest coverage is not available, so the leverage read could be worse than the cash flow suggests. Falsifier: A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would break the deleveraging read.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
7.60
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $3,176 million on $6,821 million of operating cash flow, with 1.01 free-cash-flow conversion against the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.
Mechanism
Free cash flow of $3,176 million and 1.01 conversion show cash earnings cover reported profit, so the balance sheet can keep deleveraging if demand holds.
Countercase
The 3.1 net debt to operating income sits above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, and interest coverage is not available, so the leverage read could be worse than the cash flow suggests.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
7.60

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.18

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
6.06

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.57

News specialist

Bullish

Score
68
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
8.81

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.23
Weighted contribution
13.21

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
9.19

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
53
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.43

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

CCL: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

56

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 44Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $3,176 million on $6,821 million of operating cash flow, with 1.01 free-cash-flow conversion against the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Why it matters

Free cash flow of $3,176 million and 1.01 conversion show cash earnings cover reported profit, so the balance sheet can keep deleveraging if demand holds.

What argues against it

The 3.1 net debt to operating income sits above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, and interest coverage is not available, so the leverage read could be worse than the cash flow suggests.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would break the deleveraging read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 55.04. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.96. 52 on 2026-10-29 → 56 on 2026-10-30 (+4 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Valuation specialist

    The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $34.3 at 12.1% revenue growth and an 11.5% FCF margin, 19% above the $28.83 close, while the bear case at $0.8 sits 97% below price and the peer-implied median of $44.11 rests on 3 implied prices.

  3. News specialist

    The research data shows material-news net tone of 0.38 with 13 material items, good-news days followed by outperformance of 4 against good-news days followed by underperformance of 1, and a tier-3 earnings item on 2026-10-29 with one-day return relative to SPY of 3.16.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would break the deleveraging read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

CCL: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $3,176 million on $6,821 million of operating cash flow, with 1.01 free-cash-flow conversion against the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Valuation model

The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $34.3 at 12.1% revenue growth and an 11.5% FCF margin, 19% above the $28.83 close, while the bear case at $0.8 sits 97% below price and the peer-implied median of $44.11 rests on 3 implied prices.

Potential upside

  • Carnival's DCF base fair value is $34.3 at 12.1% revenue growth and an 11.5% FCF margin, 19% above the $28.83 close, while the peer-implied median of $44.11 rests on 3 implied prices. The bear case at $0.8 and the 9.39% WACC sensitivity keep the case fragile.

Potential downside

  • Carnival converts trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $3,176 million at 1.01, above the 0.67 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median, but revenue growth of 5.2% is decelerating and net debt to operating income of 3.1 exceeds the 0.93 sector median.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would break the deleveraging read.

  • A later reading that shows revenue growth falling to the −5% bear row while the FCF margin stays at 7.5% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $28.83 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-08-31.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$0.80−97% vs close
Base
$34.30+19% vs close
Bull
$113.00+292% vs close

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $44.11 (+53% vs close)

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Discretionary that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: AMZN, CMG, CVNA, F, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Discretionary · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)12.70×

    Peer median 19.43× · middle half 18.09× to 44.69× · 14th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.45×

    Peer median 1.25× · middle half 0.97× to 3.27× · 56th percentile of the group

  • Price to book2.83×

    Peer median 5.20× · middle half 3.48× to 9.07× · 25th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield7.91%

    Peer median 3.08% · middle half 0.23% to 3.67% · 89th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 10 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Carnival Corporation (CCL) research | Sagehood