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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
CMCSA

CMCSA Research brief

Comcast

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$23.22(+4.27%)

Sagehood’s view on CMCSA

Comcast · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

60Neutral50 is balancedScore change +6 since 2026-10-29, from 54 to 60; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30

Dated research brief

WhyComcast's neutral case is driven by valuation, since the $87.0 base fair value sits 275% above the $23.22 close and the own P/E of 7.35 is at the 0th percentile. The unresolved risk is that revenue is down 0.2% and the 14.7% margin trails the 26.1% sector median.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is the flat top line. Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $123,005 million is down 0.2% and the 14.7% operating margin trails the 26.1% sector median, so the 275% discount to base fair value may reflect a structurally shrinking business.
Break conditionA later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 12% bear column while revenue growth stays at −5% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$52.10
Base
$87.00
Bull
$150.90

Base case +275% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-30. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is 3.8 times the close.

The bull case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Against peers

Communication Services
MultipleCMCSAGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)7.35×14.61×0th
P/S0.68×5.37×0th
P/B0.91×3.42×12th
FCF yield23.42%3%100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$23.22 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+4.27%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run54 on 2026-10-29 → 60 on 2026-10-30 (+6 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set8 names in Communication Services: DIS, GOOG, GOOGL, META, NFLX, SKYD, T, VZ. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $23.22

+5.3% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

CMCSA adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. CMCSA adjusted close. Continuous series. $23.22 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3060Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2954Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2845Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2746Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2645Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2350Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2248Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-2150Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-1646Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-0938Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0734Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0240Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-0142Bearish58Method 4
2026-09-3047Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2947Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2847Neutral75Method 4
2026-09-2550Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective52Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2352Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1852Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective52Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective45Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-0450Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective60Neutral65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective52Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2852Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective52Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective53Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective52Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective51Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1444Bearish63Method 2
2026-08-1348Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0749Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0649Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0448Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3146Neutral81Method 1
2026-07-2347Neutral48Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

CMCSA research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Comcast's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $123,005 million is down 0.2% and its 14.7% trailing-twelve-month operating margin is below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median, while free cash flow of $19,667 million converts at 1.74; the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $123,005 million with −0.2% growth at the 2026-09-30 period end, and the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected in these facts.

Why it matters now

Revenue of $123,005 million is flat to down while the 14.7% trailing-twelve-month operating margin sits below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median, so profit depends on cost control rather than on top-line growth.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected in these facts, and the 2026-09-30 period end predates it, so the falling equity trend and 11.9% trailing-twelve-month ROE may already have changed. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 9.6% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization read.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.18
Weighted contribution
7.76
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
7.76

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
46
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
3.92

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.25

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.45

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
42
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.48

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.21
Weighted contribution
10.23

Valuation specialist

Bullish

Score
77
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.20
Weighted contribution
15.51

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.69

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

CMCSA: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

60

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Valuation specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 77Evidence confidence 65
What the specialist sees

The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $87.0 at −2.3% revenue growth and a 16% FCF margin, 275% above the $23.22 close, while the peer-implied median of $87.49 rests on 3 implied prices and the own P/E of 7.35 sits at the 0th percentile of the peer set.

This view cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation range.
Why it matters

If the 16% FCF margin holds and revenue merely declines at the −2.3% base row, the discounted cash flows support a value far above the current price, and the 23.42% FCF yield at the 100th percentile shows the market is pricing a much weaker cash-flow stream.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the 16% FCF margin is unsustainable given the 14.7% trailing-twelve-month EBIT margin, or if the 6.6% WACC understates the risk in a capital structure carrying $79,755 million of net debt.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 12% bear column while revenue growth stays at −5% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 54.28. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +5.72. 54 on 2026-10-29 → 60 on 2026-10-30 (+6 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Valuation specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $123,005 million with −0.2% growth at the 2026-09-30 period end, and the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected in these facts.

  3. Risk specialist

    Comcast shows drawdown from the one-year high −25.6% versus maximum one-year drawdown −33.8%, twenty-day annualized volatility 31.1% against sixty-day annualized volatility 30.5% with volatility trend stable, one-year large daily-move count 12, and days to earnings 90.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 12% bear column while revenue growth stays at -5% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

CMCSA: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $123,005 million with −0.2% growth at the 2026-09-30 period end, and the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected in these facts.

Valuation model

The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $87.0 at −2.3% revenue growth and a 16% FCF margin, 275% above the $23.22 close, while the peer-implied median of $87.49 rests on 3 implied prices and the own P/E of 7.35 sits at the 0th percentile of the peer set.

This analysis cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation range.

Potential upside

  • Comcast's DCF base fair value is $87.0 at −2.3% revenue growth and a 16% FCF margin, 275% above the $23.22 close, and the peer-implied median of $87.49 rests on 3 implied prices. The own P/E of 7.35 sits at the 0th percentile of the peer set, confirming the cheap read.

See the note under Key figures above.

Potential downside

  • Comcast's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $123,005 million is down 0.2% and its 14.7% trailing-twelve-month operating margin is below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median, while free cash flow of $19,667 million converts at 1.74; the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 9.6% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization read.

  • A later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 12% bear column while revenue growth stays at −5% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $23.22 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$52.10+124% vs close
Base
$87.00+275% vs close
Bull
$150.90+550% vs close

The bull case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is 3.8 times the close.

Peers: the 8 Liquid 100 names in Communication Services that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: DIS, GOOG, GOOGL, META, NFLX, SKYD, T, VZ.

Multiples against the peer group

Communication Services · 8 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)7.35×

    Peer median 14.61× · middle half 13.02× to 19.46× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales0.68×

    Peer median 5.37× · middle half 1.68× to 6.88× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to book0.91×

    Peer median 3.42× · middle half 1.63× to 5.23× · 12th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield23.42%

    Peer median 3% · middle half 0.89% to 4.24% · 100th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 10 valuation inputs required conservative handling: no full-year gross-profit line was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year shares-outstanding figure was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Comcast (CMCSA) research | Sagehood