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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

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CMG

CMG Research brief

Chipotle Mexican Grill

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$31.89(+1.95%)

Sagehood’s view on CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

44Bearish50 is balancedScore change +2 since 2026-10-29, from 42 to 44; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 50 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyChipotle's bearish case is driven by valuation, since the $23.3 base fair value sits 27% below the $31.89 close and the own P/B of 16.91 is at the 100th percentile. The unresolved risk is that 7.9% revenue growth keeps the premium supported.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the bearish view is the revenue trend. Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $12,713 million grew 7.9% against the 5.0% sector median and quarterly growth rose from 4.9% to 9.6%, so unit expansion could keep the premium multiple supported.
Break conditionA later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 7.9% bear column while revenue growth stays at −0.1% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$11.20
Base
$23.30
Bull
$44.50

Base case −27% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-30. Peer-implied median $12.21 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Consumer Discretionary
MultipleCMGGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)29.80×18.50×71st
P/S3.27×1.25×78th
P/B16.91×4.01×100th
FCF yield3.64%3.08%56th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$31.89 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+1.95%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run42 on 2026-10-29 → 44 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Discretionary: AMZN, CCL, CVNA, F, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $31.89

−1.2% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

CMG adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. CMG adjusted close. Continuous series. $31.89 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3044Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2942Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2841Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2738Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2642Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2336Bearish58Method 4
2026-10-2236Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-2138Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-1644Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0942Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0735Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0244Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0142Bearish56Method 4
2026-09-3047Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2947Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2847Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2550Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective51Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2351Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1851Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral52Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective53Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-0452Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective53Neutral60Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective48Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-2850Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective51Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective48Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective49Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective49Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1443Bearish73Method 2
2026-08-1344Bearish73Method 1
2026-08-0744Bearish73Method 1
2026-08-0645Neutral73Method 1
2026-08-0443Bearish73Method 1
2026-07-3150Neutral78Method 1
2026-07-2340Bearish51Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

CMG research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Chipotle grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 7.9% to $12,713 million, above the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median, with quarterly growth rising to 9.6%, but the 2.3 percentage-point operating-margin decline and falling equity temper the read.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $12,713 million with 7.9% growth, and quarterly revenue growth rose from 4.9% to 9.6% across the last four quarters.

Why it matters now

Revenue growth of 7.9% with a rising quarterly trend supports continued unit expansion, while the 2.3 percentage-point operating-margin decline shows the growth is costing margin.

What could change the view

Countercase: Free-cash-flow conversion and the accrual ratio are not available, and the 2.3 percentage-point operating-margin decline shows costs are rising, so the quality read rests on incomplete cash evidence. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth read.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
52
Evidence confidence
80
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
10.40
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.21
Weighted contribution
10.86
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
80
Weight in the score
0.21
Weighted contribution
10.86

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
3.36

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
4.64

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.51

News specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
58
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
7.43

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
46
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.20
Weighted contribution
9.24

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
4.34

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.60

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

CMG: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

44

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 30Evidence confidence 45
What the specialist sees

The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $23.3 at 9.6% revenue growth and an 11.9% FCF margin, 27% below the $31.89 close, while the peer-implied median of $12.21 rests on 3 implied prices and the own P/B of 16.91 sits at the 100th percentile of the peer set.

Why it matters

If the 11.9% FCF margin holds and revenue grows at the 9.6% base row, the discounted cash flows support a value below the current price, and the 16.91 P/B at the 100th percentile shows the market is already paying a premium for that growth.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the 9.6% base growth row understates Chipotle's unit expansion, or if the 9.54% cost of equity overstates the risk for a debt-free balance sheet with $634 million of net cash.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 7.9% bear column while revenue growth stays at −0.1% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 45.98. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −1.98. 42 on 2026-10-29 → 44 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Valuation specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $12,713 million with 7.9% growth, and quarterly revenue growth rose from 4.9% to 9.6% across the last four quarters.

  3. Risk specialist

    Chipotle shows twenty-day annualized volatility 53.3% against sixty-day annualized volatility 40.9% with volatility trend rising, drawdown from the one-year high −22.0% versus maximum one-year drawdown −32.7%, one-year large daily-move count 25, and worst five-day return over one year −23.3%.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 7.9% bear column while revenue growth stays at -0.1% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

CMG: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $12,713 million with 7.9% growth, and quarterly revenue growth rose from 4.9% to 9.6% across the last four quarters.

Valuation model

The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $23.3 at 9.6% revenue growth and an 11.9% FCF margin, 27% below the $31.89 close, while the peer-implied median of $12.21 rests on 3 implied prices and the own P/B of 16.91 sits at the 100th percentile of the peer set.

Potential upside

  • Chipotle grew trailing-twelve-month revenue 7.9% to $12,713 million, above the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median, with quarterly growth rising to 9.6%, but the 2.3 percentage-point operating-margin decline and falling equity temper the read.

Potential downside

  • Chipotle's DCF base fair value is $23.3 at 9.6% revenue growth and an 11.9% FCF margin, 27% below the $31.89 close, and the peer-implied median of $12.21 rests on 3 implied prices. The own P/B of 16.91 sits at the 100th percentile of the peer set, confirming the rich read.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth read.

  • A later reading that shows the FCF margin falling to the 7.9% bear column while revenue growth stays at −0.1% would break the claim that the base case supports the current price.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $31.89 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$11.20−65% vs close
Base
$23.30−27% vs close
Bull
$44.50+39% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $12.21 (−61.7% vs close)

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Discretionary that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: AMZN, CCL, CVNA, F, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Discretionary · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)29.80×

    Peer median 18.50× · middle half 15.19× to 39.50× · 71st percentile of the group

  • Price to sales3.27×

    Peer median 1.25× · middle half 0.97× to 3.09× · 78th percentile of the group

  • Price to book16.91×

    Peer median 4.01× · middle half 2.77× to 6.30× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield3.64%

    Peer median 3.08% · middle half 0.23% to 4.17% · 56th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 3 valuation inputs required conservative handling: no full-year gross-profit line was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) research | Sagehood