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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

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COIN Research brief

Coinbase

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$143.54(−10.62%)

Sagehood’s view on COIN

Coinbase · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

30Bearish50 is balancedScore change −6 since 2026-10-29, from 36 to 30; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 50 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyCoinbase's bearish case is driven by a shrinking revenue base, since trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 26.6% with a −12.5% net margin and price sits 19.5% below the long-term average. The unresolved risk is that volatility is falling from 75.2% to 61.9%.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the bearish view is the falling volatility trend.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization read.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

No fair-value range was computed for this run: the earnings-multiple valuation grid was unavailable because trailing earnings per share were missing or negative.

Against peers

Financials
MultipleCOINGroup medianPercentile
P/S6.75×3.04×90th
P/B2.73×1.29×80th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$143.54 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−10.62%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run36 on 2026-10-29 → 30 on 2026-10-30 (−6 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set10 names in Financials: BAC, C, HBAN, HOOD, KEY, PYPL, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $143.54

+0.7% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

COIN adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. COIN adjusted close. Continuous series. $143.54 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-08-24 to 2026-10-30 · 28 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (2 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3030Bearish50Method 2
2026-10-2936Bearish45Method 2
2026-10-2844Bearish49Method 2
2026-10-2744Bearish50Method 2
2026-10-2638Bearish50Method 2
2026-10-2338Bearish50Method 2
2026-10-2238Bearish44Method 2
2026-10-2140Bearish50Method 2
2026-10-1650Neutral30Method 2
2026-10-0940Bearish48Method 2
2026-10-0745Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-0238Bearish55Method 2
2026-10-0143Bearish58Method 2
2026-09-3047Neutral55Method 2
2026-09-2947Neutral48Method 2
2026-09-2849Neutral48Method 2
2026-09-2548Neutral45Method 2
2026-09-24 · retrospective48Neutral58Method 2
2026-09-2348Neutral50Method 2
2026-09-1848Neutral60Method 2
2026-09-16 · retrospective38Bearish55Method 2
2026-09-09 · retrospective42Bearish58Method 2
2026-09-0442Bearish55Method 2
2026-09-01 · retrospective42Bearish55Method 2
2026-08-31 · retrospective42Bearish71Method 1
2026-08-2842Bearish71Method 1
2026-08-26 · retrospective44Bearish71Method 1
2026-08-24 · retrospective42Bearish71Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

COIN research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Coinbase's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $5,630 million fell 26.6% and its trailing-twelve-month net margin was −12.5%, with quarterly revenue growth negative in all four quarters; the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $5,630 million with −26.6% growth at the 2026-09-30 period end, and the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected in these facts.

Why it matters now

Revenue of $5,630 million is down 26.6% with a −12.5% trailing-twelve-month net margin, so the business is shrinking and unprofitable at the current revenue base.

What could change the view

Countercase: Free cash flow, operating cash flow and net debt to EBITDA are not available, and the 2026-09-30 period end predates the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29, so the cash and leverage read is incomplete. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization read.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
30
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
5.63
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $5,630 million with −26.6% growth at the 2026-09-30 period end, and the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected in these facts.
Mechanism
Revenue of $5,630 million is down 26.6% with a −12.5% trailing-twelve-month net margin, so the business is shrinking and unprofitable at the current revenue base.
Countercase
Free cash flow, operating cash flow and net debt to EBITDA are not available, and the 2026-09-30 period end predates the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29, so the cash and leverage read is incomplete.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
5.63

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
22
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
2.00

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
32
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
4.09

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.55

News specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.75

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
32
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.25
Weighted contribution
7.93

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.95

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.72

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

COIN: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

30

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 30Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $5,630 million with −26.6% growth at the 2026-09-30 period end, and the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected in these facts.

Why it matters

Revenue of $5,630 million is down 26.6% with a −12.5% trailing-twelve-month net margin, so the business is shrinking and unprofitable at the current revenue base.

What argues against it

Free cash flow, operating cash flow and net debt to EBITDA are not available, and the 2026-09-30 period end predates the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29, so the cash and leverage read is incomplete.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 35.62. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −5.62. 36 on 2026-10-29 → 30 on 2026-10-30 (−6 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close 143.54 is 19.5% below the long-term moving average and 20.1% below the medium-term moving average, with the 90-day channel at +54.8% annualized and trend-channel position −3.04 standard deviations.

  3. Risk specialist

    Coinbase shows drawdown from the one-year high −58.2% versus maximum one-year drawdown −59.0%, twenty-day annualized volatility 61.9% against sixty-day annualized volatility 75.2% with volatility trend falling, one-year large daily-move count 89, and worst five-day return over one year −26.6%.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

COIN: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $5,630 million with −26.6% growth at the 2026-09-30 period end, and the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected in these facts.

Valuation model

Coinbase has no EPS-model grid, and the peer-implied median of $66.28 rests on 2 implied prices, below the $143.54 close, while the own P/B of 2.73 sits at the 80th percentile of the peer set and trailing-twelve-month EPS is −2.53.

Potential upside

  • Coinbase has no EPS-model grid, so the read rests on the peer-implied median of $66.28, which rests on 2 implied prices and sits below the $143.54 close, against an own P/B of 2.73 at the 80th percentile. The 2 implied prices are too few to force a directional verdict.

Potential downside

  • Coinbase's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $5,630 million fell 26.6% and its trailing-twelve-month net margin was −12.5%, with quarterly revenue growth negative in all four quarters; the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization read.

  • A later reading that shows the own P/B of 2.73 rising above the peer Q3 P/B of 2.39 would break the claim that the shares are not clearly rich on book value.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $143.54 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

No fair-value range this session: the earnings-multiple valuation grid was unavailable because trailing earnings per share were missing or negative

Implied by the median of 2 peer-median multiples: $66.28 (−53.8% vs close)

Peers: the 10 Liquid 100 names in Financials that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BAC, C, HBAN, HOOD, KEY, PYPL, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC.

Multiples against the peer group

Financials · 10 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)Not computed in this research

    Peer median 12.46× · middle half 11.80× to 15.26×

  • Price to sales6.75×

    Peer median 3.04× · middle half 2.91× to 3.24× · 90th percentile of the group

  • Price to book2.73×

    Peer median 1.29× · middle half 1.12× to 2.39× · 80th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yieldNot computed in this research

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 9 valuation inputs required conservative handling: capital spending was unavailable; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year shares-outstanding figure was filed; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the earnings-multiple valuation grid was unavailable because trailing earnings per share were missing or negative.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Coinbase (COIN) research | Sagehood