Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Radar
DVN

DVN Research brief

Devon Energy

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$52.15(+1.92%)

Sagehood’s view on DVN

Devon Energy · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

62Neutral50 is balancedScore change −2 since 2026-10-29, from 64 to 62; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30In the current Top-7 book

Dated research brief

WhyDVN screens neutral because the cash-flow discount is wide but the tape is already recovering. The unresolved risk is that earnings in 5 days and a −2.0 percentage points 63-day sector lag leave the discount unconfirmed.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is that the discount may already be closing.
Break conditionFrom the valuation specialist: A later reading showing the FCF margin below the threshold of 19.8% on the grid's margin columns would break the base case case, since the base column assumes 23.8%.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$91.00
Base
$150.60
Bull
$308.70

Base case +189% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Peer-implied median $83.03 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bull case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Against peers

Energy
MultipleDVNGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)11.34×18.05×17th
P/S1.64×2.51×17th
P/B0.77×2.42×0th
FCF yield14.56%5.69%100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the valuation specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$52.15 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+1.92%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run64 on 2026-10-29 → 62 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set6 names in Energy: CVX, EQT, HAL, KMI, OXY, SLB. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $52.15

+23.2% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

DVN adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. DVN adjusted close. Continuous series. $52.15 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3062Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2964Neutral65Method 4
2026-10-2862Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2766Bullish60Method 4
2026-10-2664Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2365Bullish60Method 4
2026-10-2261Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2159Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-1666Bullish60Method 4
2026-10-0960Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-0762Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-0252Neutral48Method 4
2026-10-0156Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-3058Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2958Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-2858Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-2557Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective54Neutral52Method 4
2026-09-2355Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1855Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective57Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective61Neutral68Method 4
2026-09-0457Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective60Neutral65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective58Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2858Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective58Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective58Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1454Neutral60Method 2
2026-08-1355Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0755Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0655Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0455Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-3152Neutral64Method 1
2026-07-2358Neutral58Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

DVN research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bullish

Devon pairs $4,694 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow and 16.7% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth with a volatile quarterly path from −12.3% to 73.0%, while net debt to EBITDA is not available, so the read is growth-positive but leverage-blind.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $19,699 million with revenue growth of 16.7% and quarterly revenue growth of 12.0%, −12.3%, −0.9% and 73.0%, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $4,694 million and trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was $8,553 million.

Why it matters now

A 73.0% latest-quarter revenue jump and $4,694 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow support the growth case, but the swing from −12.3% to 73.0% quarterly growth shows the trajectory is volatile rather than durable.

What could change the view

Countercase: Net debt to EBITDA and interest coverage are not available, so the leverage read is incomplete and could be wrong. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 13.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth-led read.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
65
Evidence confidence
50
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
6.50
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.13
Weighted contribution
8.67
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bullish

Score
65
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
8.67

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.33

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
5.17

SEC filings specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.22

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
48
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.42

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.25
Weighted contribution
15.27

Valuation specialist

Bullish

Score
72
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
13.00

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.88

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

DVN: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

62

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Valuation specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 72Evidence confidence 55
What the specialist sees

The base case pairs 0.9% revenue growth with a 23.8% FCF margin for a $150.60 fair value, 189% above the $52.15 close, while the bear case at −5% growth and a 19.8% margin gives $91.00 and the bull case at 12.8% growth and a 27.8% margin gives $308.70.

Why it matters

The grid's fair value exceeds the traded price across the bear, base and bull cells, so the current price implies a discount to the cash flow the 23.8% trailing-twelve-month FCF margin already produces.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the 16.7% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth reverses and the 23.8% FCF margin compresses toward the 19.8% bear column, and the three-name comps median of $83.03 is too thin to confirm the discount.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing the FCF margin below the threshold of 19.8% on the grid's margin columns would break the base case case, since the base column assumes 23.8%.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 57.96. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +4.04. 64 on 2026-10-29 → 62 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Valuation specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $19,699 million with revenue growth of 16.7% and quarterly revenue growth of 12.0%, −12.3%, −0.9% and 73.0%, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $4,694 million and trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was $8,553 million.

  3. Price-trend specialist

    DVN closed at 52.15, up 9.44% over 20 days and 21.75% over 60 days, with a 90-day channel slope of 82.0% per year at fit R² 0.81 and trend-channel position of 0.39 standard deviations; price sits 14.6% over 200-day average and 6.8% over 50-day average.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing the FCF margin below the threshold of 19.8% on the grid's margin columns would break the base-cell case, since the base column assumes 23.8%.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

DVN: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $52.15 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$91.00+74% vs close
Base
$150.60+189% vs close
Bull
$308.70+492% vs close

The bull case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $83.03 (+59.2% vs close)

Peers: the 6 Liquid 100 names in Energy that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: CVX, EQT, HAL, KMI, OXY, SLB.

Multiples against the peer group

Energy · 6 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)11.34×

    Peer median 18.05× · middle half 13.64× to 22.23× · 17th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.64×

    Peer median 2.51× · middle half 2.22× to 3.49× · 17th percentile of the group

  • Price to book0.77×

    Peer median 2.42× · middle half 1.75× to 2.66× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield14.56%

    Peer median 5.69% · middle half 5.35% to 7.03% · 100th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 18 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; diluted-share and reported shares-outstanding data diverged by more than 25%; the measured beta of 0.05 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Devon Energy (DVN) research | Sagehood