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EXC

EXC Research brief

Exelon

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$46.16(+0.54%)

Sagehood’s view on EXC

Exelon · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

50Neutral50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 50; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 45 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyEXC screens neutral because a positive earnings reaction meets negative free cash flow. The unresolved risk is that the comps median of $28.02 implies 39.3% downside against the $46.16 close.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is that the peer-implied downside may be too harsh.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 9.16 sector net debt to operating income median would confirm the leverage concern.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

A newer 10-Q (filed 2026-10-30) is on record; some figures here may predate it.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

No fair-value range was computed for this run: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Against peers

Utilities
MultipleEXCGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)16.91×9.48×67th
P/S1.91×1.16×67th
P/B1.62×2.15×33rd
FCF yield−4.57%−15.2%100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$46.16 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+0.54%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run50 on 2026-10-29 → 50 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set3 names in Utilities: AES, NEE, PCG. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $46.16

−0.3% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

EXC adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. EXC adjusted close. Continuous series. $46.16 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 24 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3050Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2950Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-1644Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0941Bearish58Method 4
2026-10-0742Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0142Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-1844Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective46Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-0446Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective47Neutral55Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective52Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-2854Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective51Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective52Neutral69Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective55Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective54Neutral69Method 3
2026-08-1454Neutral69Method 2
2026-08-1353Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0754Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0654Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0453Neutral71Method 1
2026-07-3147Neutral55Method 1
2026-07-2350Neutral45Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

EXC research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Exelon shows $6,778 million of trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow but −$2,163 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow, with net debt to operating income of 9.16, so the utility's capital program is consuming more cash than operations generate.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,786 million with revenue growth of 4.6% and quarterly revenue growth of 1.2%, 9.0%, −1.1% and 7.9%, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$2,163 million against trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $6,778 million.

Why it matters now

Heavy capital spending leaves free cash flow at −$2,163 million despite $6,778 million of operating cash flow, and net debt to operating income of 9.16 shows the balance sheet carries that build.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-30 is not yet reflected in these facts, so the newest quarter could change the cash and leverage read. Falsifier: A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 9.16 sector net debt to operating income median would confirm the leverage concern.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
38
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
7.37
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,786 million with revenue growth of 4.6% and quarterly revenue growth of 1.2%, 9.0%, −1.1% and 7.9%, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$2,163 million against trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $6,778 million.
Mechanism
Heavy capital spending leaves free cash flow at −$2,163 million despite $6,778 million of operating cash flow, and net debt to operating income of 9.16 shows the balance sheet carries that build.
Countercase
The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-30 is not yet reflected in these facts, so the newest quarter could change the cash and leverage read.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
7.37

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
60
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.63

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.33

SEC filings specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.27

News specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
58
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
7.88

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.23
Weighted contribution
12.89

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.11

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.06

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

EXC: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

50

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 38Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,786 million with revenue growth of 4.6% and quarterly revenue growth of 1.2%, 9.0%, −1.1% and 7.9%, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$2,163 million against trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $6,778 million.

Why it matters

Heavy capital spending leaves free cash flow at −$2,163 million despite $6,778 million of operating cash flow, and net debt to operating income of 9.16 shows the balance sheet carries that build.

What argues against it

The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-30 is not yet reflected in these facts, so the newest quarter could change the cash and leverage read.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 9.16 sector net debt to operating income median would confirm the leverage concern.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 51.54. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −1.54. 50 on 2026-10-29 → 50 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. News specialist

    EXC closed 2026-10-30 at 46.16, up 0.54% on the day and 13.33% over 20 days, with material-news net tone +0.2 and good-news days followed by outperformance 6 against bad-news days followed by underperformance 0. The 2026-10-30 items 'Exelon: Q3 Earnings Snapshot' and 'What Exelon (EXC) Said on Its Q3 Earnings...' each showed one-day return relative to SPY 2.32 percentage points, and an 8-K dated 2026-10-30 carried items 2.02,7.01,9.01.

  3. Valuation specialist

    The DCF was not computed because the free cash flow path is negative, leaving no grid fair value, while the three-name comps median of $28.02 implies 39.3% downside against the $46.16 close and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$2163 million on a −8.7% FCF margin.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 9.16 sector net debt to operating income median would confirm the leverage concern.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

EXC: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,786 million with revenue growth of 4.6% and quarterly revenue growth of 1.2%, 9.0%, −1.1% and 7.9%, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$2,163 million against trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $6,778 million.

Valuation model

The DCF was not computed because the free cash flow path is negative, leaving no grid fair value, while the three-name comps median of $28.02 implies 39.3% downside against the $46.16 close and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$2163 million on a −8.7% FCF margin.

Potential upside

  • No DCF grid was computed because the free cash flow path is negative, so no fair value is available and the score sits at neutral. The three-name comps median of $28.02 implies 39.3% downside against the $46.16 close, while the −8.7% trailing-twelve-month FCF margin leaves the read unanchored.

Potential downside

  • Exelon shows $6,778 million of trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow but −$2,163 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow, with net debt to operating income of 9.16, so the utility's capital program is consuming more cash than operations generate.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing net debt to operating income above the 9.16 sector net debt to operating income median would confirm the leverage concern.

  • A later filing showing free cash flow turning positive would allow a grid fair value to be computed, and a fair value above the $46.16 close would break the comps-implied downside case.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $46.16 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-03-31 · a newer 10-Q (filed 2026-10-30) is on record; some figures here may predate it.

No fair-value range this session: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $28.02 (−39.3% vs close)

Peers: the 3 Liquid 100 names in Utilities that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: AES, NEE, PCG.

Multiples against the peer group

Utilities · 3 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)16.91×

    Peer median 9.48× · middle half 7.57× to 15.37× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.91×

    Peer median 1.16× · middle half 0.98× to 3.96× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.62×

    Peer median 2.15× · middle half 1.52× to 2.66× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield−4.57%

    Peer median −15.2% · middle half −15.71% to −14.69% · 100th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 23 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; stock-based compensation is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the measured beta of -0.18 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead; the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Exelon (EXC) research | Sagehood