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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

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F

F Research brief

Ford Motor Company

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$12.25(−0.89%)

Sagehood’s view on F

Ford Motor Company · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

38Bearish50 is balancedScore change −6 since 2026-10-29, from 44 to 38; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyF screens bearish because revenue fell 1.4% and operating margin is −3.8% against an 8.7% sector median. The unresolved risk is that $5,145 million of free cash flow and $22,275 million of cash cushion the contraction.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case for the company is that cash generation and liquidity remain intact despite the losses.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin at or above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median would break the contraction claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is 4.6 times the close.

Against peers

Consumer Discretionary
MultipleFGroup medianPercentile
P/S0.27×1.45×0th
P/B1.35×5.20×0th
FCF yield10.32%3.08%100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$12.25 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.89%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run44 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (−6 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Discretionary: AMZN, CCL, CMG, CVNA, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $12.25

−12.2% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

F adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. F adjusted close. Continuous series. $12.25 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3038Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2944Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2840Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2744Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-2636Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-2338Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-2238Bearish42Method 4
2026-10-2138Bearish40Method 4
2026-10-1640Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0938Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-0740Bearish52Method 4
2026-10-0238Bearish58Method 4
2026-10-0143Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-3041Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-2942Bearish58Method 4
2026-09-2842Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-2546Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective44Bearish50Method 4
2026-09-2346Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-1845Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective44Bearish48Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective41Bearish62Method 4
2026-09-0452Neutral70Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective48Neutral50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2857Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective58Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1457Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1358Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0758Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0658Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0458Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3156Neutral81Method 1
2026-07-2356Neutral54Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

F research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Ford's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $186,965 million fell 1.4% and trailing-twelve-month operating margin is −3.8%, far below the 8.7% sector operating-margin median. Gross margin fell 7.5 percentage points and operating margin fell 5.7 points, so the core business is contracting.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $186,965 million, down 1.4% year over year, and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −3.8% against the 8.7% sector operating-margin median. Gross margin fell 7.5 percentage points and operating margin fell 5.7 points, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $5,145 million and cash was $22,275 million.

Why it matters now

Contracting gross and operating margins alongside negative trailing-twelve-month operating margin imply the core vehicle business is earning less per unit of revenue, and the 1.5% share-count increase dilutes per-share claims on any recovery.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the margin contraction reflects one-time charges rather than structural cost pressure, and total debt, net debt to EBITDA and interest coverage are not available, so leverage risk is unmeasured. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin at or above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median would break the contraction claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
38
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
7.32
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $186,965 million, down 1.4% year over year, and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −3.8% against the 8.7% sector operating-margin median. Gross margin fell 7.5 percentage points and operating margin fell 5.7 points, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $5,145 million and cash was $22,275 million.
Mechanism
Contracting gross and operating margins alongside negative trailing-twelve-month operating margin imply the core vehicle business is earning less per unit of revenue, and the 1.5% share-count increase dilutes per-share claims on any recovery.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the margin contraction reflects one-time charges rather than structural cost pressure, and total debt, net debt to EBITDA and interest coverage are not available, so leverage risk is unmeasured.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
7.32

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.10

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.89

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.75

News specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
58
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
7.29

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.23
Weighted contribution
8.85

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.08

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.03

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

F: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

38

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 38Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $186,965 million, down 1.4% year over year, and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −3.8% against the 8.7% sector operating-margin median. Gross margin fell 7.5 percentage points and operating margin fell 5.7 points, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $5,145 million and cash was $22,275 million.

Why it matters

Contracting gross and operating margins alongside negative trailing-twelve-month operating margin imply the core vehicle business is earning less per unit of revenue, and the 1.5% share-count increase dilutes per-share claims on any recovery.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the margin contraction reflects one-time charges rather than structural cost pressure, and total debt, net debt to EBITDA and interest coverage are not available, so leverage risk is unmeasured.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin at or above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median would break the contraction claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 44.32. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −6.32. 44 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (−6 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close $12.25 sits 6.9% below 200-day average and 5.0% below 50-day average, with a death cross 8 days old; the 90-day channel slope is −40.2% per year and the 1-year slope is 5.1% per year.

  3. Risk specialist

    Ford shows twenty-day annualized volatility of 24.5 against sixty-day annualized volatility of 30.3 with a falling trend, drawdown from the one-year high of −29.0 versus maximum one-year drawdown of −32.9, one-year large daily-move count of 17, and worst five-day return over one year of −14.6.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM operating margin at or above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median would break the contraction claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

F: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $186,965 million, down 1.4% year over year, and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −3.8% against the 8.7% sector operating-margin median. Gross margin fell 7.5 percentage points and operating margin fell 5.7 points, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $5,145 million and cash was $22,275 million.

Valuation model

Ford closed at $12.25 on 2026-10-30 with trailing-twelve-month revenue of $186,965 million, trailing-twelve-month EBIT of −$7,136 million and trailing-twelve-month EPS diluted of −$1.98, while the peer-implied median of $56.88 rests on 2 implied prices.

This analysis cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation & peers.

Potential upside

  • No DCF or EPS grid was computed for Ford, so no base fair value or upside exists; the peer-implied median of $56.88 rests on only 2 implied prices and is far from the $12.25 close.

See the note under Key figures above.

Potential downside

  • Ford's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $186,965 million fell 1.4% and trailing-twelve-month operating margin is −3.8%, far below the 8.7% sector operating-margin median. Gross margin fell 7.5 percentage points and operating margin fell 5.7 points, so the core business is contracting.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin at or above the 8.7% sector operating-margin median would break the contraction claim.

  • A later reading of trailing-twelve-month EBIT margin that stays below the 5-year average EBIT margin of 1.7% would keep the negative-earnings read intact.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Cash-flow model unavailable

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $12.25 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is 4.6 times the close.

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Discretionary that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: AMZN, CCL, CMG, CVNA, NCLH, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Discretionary · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)Not computed in this research

    Peer median 18.96× · middle half 16.43× to 37.24×

  • Price to sales0.27×

    Peer median 1.45× · middle half 1.14× to 3.27× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.35×

    Peer median 5.20× · middle half 3.54× to 9.07× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield10.32%

    Peer median 3.08% · middle half 0.23% to 3.67% · 100th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 13 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year shares-outstanding figure was filed; total debt was unavailable; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Ford Motor Company (F) research | Sagehood