Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Radar
FCX

FCX Research brief

Freeport-McMoRan

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$62.47(−5.55%)

Sagehood’s view on FCX

Freeport-McMoRan · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

45Neutral50 is balancedScore change −5 since 2026-10-29, from 50 to 45; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 50 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyFCX screens neutral because a 27.4% operating margin meets a top line that fell 1.6% and swung to −8.1% quarterly. The unresolved risk is a downside beta of 2.01 with 37 large-move days over the last year.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is that the pullback may be a buying window rather than a breakdown.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 8.7% universe revenue-growth median would break the deceleration claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

No fair-value range was computed for this run: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because free cash flow or share data was missing.

Against peers

Materials
MultipleFCXGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)30.62×not measurednot placed
P/S3.57×0.56×100th
P/B4.49×1.03×100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$62.47 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−5.55%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run50 on 2026-10-29 → 45 on 2026-10-30 (−5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set2 names in Materials: DOW, MOS. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. “Valuation & peers” says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $62.47

−0.1% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

FCX adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. FCX adjusted close. Continuous series. $62.47 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3045Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2950Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2852Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2748Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2645Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2348Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2245Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-2148Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-1650Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0958Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-0758Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0252Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-0148Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-3051Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2951Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2851Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2555Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective54Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-2355Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1855Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective52Neutral52Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective56Neutral68Method 4
2026-09-0452Neutral75Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective49Neutral50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective50Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2850Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective51Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective51Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective49Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective50Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1449Neutral61Method 2
2026-08-1351Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-0751Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0651Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0452Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3147Neutral69Method 1
2026-07-2344Bearish58Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

FCX research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Freeport-McMoRan's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $25,257 million fell 1.6% and quarterly growth swung from 12.2% to −8.1%, a decelerating pattern. Trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 27.4% is above the 17.0% universe operating-margin median, but free cash flow is not available.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $25,257 million, down 1.6% year over year, and quarterly revenue growth moved from 12.2% to −8.1% with decelerating acceleration. Trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 27.4% versus the 17.0% universe operating-margin median, and net debt to EBITDA was 0.59 against the 1.04 universe net-debt-to-EBITDA median.

Why it matters now

A high operating margin with falling revenue and decelerating quarterly growth implies the copper franchise remains profitable per unit but is losing top-line momentum, and free cash flow and accrual quality are unobserved so cash conversion cannot be confirmed.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the quarterly revenue swing reflects timing of shipments rather than demand, and free cash flow, accrual ratio and interest coverage are not available, so cash quality is unmeasured. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 8.7% universe revenue-growth median would break the deceleration claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
38
Evidence confidence
60
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
7.80
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
6.41
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $25,257 million, down 1.6% year over year, and quarterly revenue growth moved from 12.2% to −8.1% with decelerating acceleration. Trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 27.4% versus the 17.0% universe operating-margin median, and net debt to EBITDA was 0.59 against the 1.04 universe net-debt-to-EBITDA median.
Mechanism
A high operating margin with falling revenue and decelerating quarterly growth implies the copper franchise remains profitable per unit but is losing top-line momentum, and free cash flow and accrual quality are unobserved so cash conversion cannot be confirmed.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the quarterly revenue swing reflects timing of shipments rather than demand, and free cash flow, accrual ratio and interest coverage are not available, so cash quality is unmeasured.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
6.41

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
3.61

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
40
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.75

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.78

News specialist

Neutral

Score
49
Evidence confidence
52
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.06

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.26
Weighted contribution
14.26

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.19

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.14

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

FCX: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

45

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 38Evidence confidence 60
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $25,257 million, down 1.6% year over year, and quarterly revenue growth moved from 12.2% to −8.1% with decelerating acceleration. Trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 27.4% versus the 17.0% universe operating-margin median, and net debt to EBITDA was 0.59 against the 1.04 universe net-debt-to-EBITDA median.

Why it matters

A high operating margin with falling revenue and decelerating quarterly growth implies the copper franchise remains profitable per unit but is losing top-line momentum, and free cash flow and accrual quality are unobserved so cash conversion cannot be confirmed.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the quarterly revenue swing reflects timing of shipments rather than demand, and free cash flow, accrual ratio and interest coverage are not available, so cash quality is unmeasured.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 8.7% universe revenue-growth median would break the deceleration claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 47.20. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −2.20. 50 on 2026-10-29 → 45 on 2026-10-30 (−5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Risk specialist

    Freeport-McMoRan shows twenty-day annualized volatility of 35.4 against sixty-day annualized volatility of 41.0 with a falling trend, drawdown from the one-year high of −21.7 versus maximum one-year drawdown of −24.3, one-year large daily-move count of 37, and worst five-day return over one year of −19.1.

  3. Price-trend specialist

    Close $62.47 is 3.8% below 200-day average and 12.6% below 50-day average, with a golden cross 330 days old; the 1-year channel slope is 60.5% per year and the 90-day slope is 57.2% per year.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth at or above the 8.7% universe revenue-growth median would break the deceleration claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

FCX: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $25,257 million, down 1.6% year over year, and quarterly revenue growth moved from 12.2% to −8.1% with decelerating acceleration. Trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 27.4% versus the 17.0% universe operating-margin median, and net debt to EBITDA was 0.59 against the 1.04 universe net-debt-to-EBITDA median.

Valuation model

Freeport-McMoRan closed at $62.47 on 2026-10-30 with trailing-twelve-month revenue of $25,257 million, trailing-twelve-month EBIT of $6,923 million and a trailing-twelve-month EBIT margin of 27.4%, while the peer-implied median of $12.07 rests on 2 implied prices.

This analysis cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation & peers.

Potential upside

  • No DCF or EPS grid was computed for Freeport-McMoRan, so no base fair value or upside exists; the peer-implied median of $12.07 rests on only 2 implied prices and sits far below the $62.47 close.

See the note under Key figures above.

Potential downside

  • Freeport-McMoRan's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $25,257 million fell 1.6% and quarterly growth swung from 12.2% to −8.1%, a decelerating pattern. Trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 27.4% is above the 17.0% universe operating-margin median, but free cash flow is not available.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 8.7% universe revenue-growth median would break the deceleration claim.

  • A later reading of trailing-twelve-month EBIT margin that falls below the 5-year average EBIT margin of 29.6% would weaken the margin-supported read.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $62.47 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

No fair-value range this session: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because free cash flow or share data was missing

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 5.2 times the estimate.

Peers: the 2 Liquid 100 names in Materials that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: DOW, MOS.

Multiples against the peer group

Materials · 2 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)30.62×

    Peer group not measured for this multiple

  • Price to sales3.57×

    Peer median 0.56× · middle half 0.52× to 0.60× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to book4.49×

    Peer median 1.03× · middle half 0.77× to 1.29× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yieldNot computed in this research

    Peer median −8.57% · middle half −12.4% to −4.75%

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 13 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because free cash flow or share data was missing.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) research | Sagehood