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HOOD

HOOD Research brief

Robinhood Markets

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$84.99(−7.21%)

Sagehood’s view on HOOD

Robinhood Markets · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

38Bearish50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 38; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 45 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyRobinhood's bearish read is driven by decelerating growth and margin, since quarterly revenue growth fell to 11.8% and the net margin dropped to 32.9%. The unresolved risk is a 42.2% drawdown that is still shallower than the 55.7% one-year maximum.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case for the company is that the drawdown may already discount the slowdown. The current −42.2% drawdown is shallower than the −55.7% one-year maximum, volatility fell from 69.6% to 51.9%, and return on equity is still 21.3%.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim, since the 5.4% median is a trailing-twelve-month figure and the quarterly growth readings are not a matched-period comparison.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value · the exit earnings multiple model declined

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the close ($84.99) was 12.7 times the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($6.70).

Close $84.99 (recorded) on 2026-10-30; estimates use fundamentals to 2026-09-30.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 5.0 times the estimate.

Rejected model output (not a valuation)
Bear
$6.40
Base
$6.70
Bull
$8.70

The model’s own grid cells, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Against peers

Financials
MultipleHOODGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)39.17×12.35×100th
P/S15.30×3.04×100th
P/B7.72×1.29×100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$84.99 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−7.21%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage7 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 3 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 7 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run38 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set10 names in Financials: BAC, C, COIN, HBAN, KEY, PYPL, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $84.99

−9.1% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

HOOD adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. HOOD adjusted close. Continuous series. $84.99 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3038Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-2938Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2838Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2746Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2647Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2344Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2245Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2150Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-1642Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-0948Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0748Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-0244Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0150Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-3051Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-2951Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-2852Neutral49Method 4
2026-09-2554Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective54Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2356Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1859Neutral70Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective52Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-0458Neutral75Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective50Neutral55Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective55Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-2855Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective52Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective54Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective48Neutral68Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective50Neutral68Method 3
2026-08-1451Neutral71Method 2
2026-08-1353Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-0744Bearish60Method 1
2026-08-0643Bearish60Method 1
2026-08-0444Bearish60Method 1
2026-07-3142Bearish63Method 1
2026-07-2342Bearish49Method 1

Specialists

7 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

3 unavailable

HOOD research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Robinhood still earns well, with trailing-twelve-month revenue of $5,082 million up 20.9% and a 21.3% return on equity, but the latest quarter's revenue growth slowed to 11.8% and the net margin fell to 32.9% from 42.9%.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $5,082 million grew 20.9% and return on equity was 21.3%, but quarterly revenue growth fell from 32.3% to 11.8% and the net margin dropped from 42.9% to 32.9%.

Why it matters now

Decelerating revenue growth with a contracting net margin suggests the growth mix is shifting toward lower-margin activity, though the 21.3% return on equity shows the franchise still earns well.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 11.8% latest quarterly revenue growth and 32.9% net margin could be a seasonal dip rather than a trend break, and the input does not separate transaction revenue from net interest income. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim, since the 5.4% median is a trailing-twelve-month figure and the quarterly growth readings are not a matched-period comparison.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
55
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.22
Weighted contribution
12.31
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $5,082 million grew 20.9% and return on equity was 21.3%, but quarterly revenue growth fell from 32.3% to 11.8% and the net margin dropped from 42.9% to 32.9%.
Mechanism
Decelerating revenue growth with a contracting net margin suggests the growth mix is shifting toward lower-margin activity, though the 21.3% return on equity shows the franchise still earns well.
Countercase
The 11.8% latest quarterly revenue growth and 32.9% net margin could be a seasonal dip rather than a trend break, and the input does not separate transaction revenue from net interest income.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.22
Weighted contribution
12.31

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
35
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
3.79

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
5.68

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
2.03

News specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
6.82

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.22
Weighted contribution
6.64

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.85

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Valuation specialist, Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Valuation specialist: The valuation specialist did not vote on this run because the valuation model declined to give a fair value: the close ($84.99) was 12.7 times the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($6.70).
  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

HOOD: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

38

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 55Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $5,082 million grew 20.9% and return on equity was 21.3%, but quarterly revenue growth fell from 32.3% to 11.8% and the net margin dropped from 42.9% to 32.9%.

Why it matters

Decelerating revenue growth with a contracting net margin suggests the growth mix is shifting toward lower-margin activity, though the 21.3% return on equity shows the franchise still earns well.

What argues against it

The 11.8% latest quarterly revenue growth and 32.9% net margin could be a seasonal dip rather than a trend break, and the input does not separate transaction revenue from net interest income.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim, since the 5.4% median is a trailing-twelve-month figure and the quarterly growth readings are not a matched-period comparison.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 43.12. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −5.12. 38 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. News specialist

    Coverage shows 310 deduped items and 69 material items with material-news net tone −0.09, bad-news days followed by underperformance 8 against good-news days followed by outperformance 3, and good-news days followed by underperformance 6, with an 8-K/A dated 2026-10-28.

  3. Risk specialist

    The current drawdown of −42.2% is deep but shallower than the one-year maximum of −55.7%, and 20-day annualized volatility at 51.9% is below 60-day at 69.6%.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth at or below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim, since the 5.4% median is a TTM figure and the quarterly growth readings are not a matched-period comparison.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

HOOD: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation: the model declined to give a fair value

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $84.99 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the close ($84.99) was 12.7 times the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($6.70).

Rejected model output (not a valuation)

The exit earnings multiple grid cells this run nominated, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Bear
$6.40−92% vs close
Base
$6.70−92% vs close
Bull
$8.70−90% vs close

The bear, base, and bull cases sit more than 5× from the close: extreme scenarios, shown as the model computed them.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 5.0 times the estimate.

Peers: the 10 Liquid 100 names in Financials that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BAC, C, COIN, HBAN, KEY, PYPL, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC.

Multiples against the peer group

Financials · 10 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)39.17×

    Peer median 12.35× · middle half 11.76× to 12.93× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales15.30×

    Peer median 3.04× · middle half 2.91× to 3.24× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to book7.72×

    Peer median 1.29× · middle half 1.12× to 2.39× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yieldNot computed in this research

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 9 valuation inputs required conservative handling: capital spending was unavailable; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; no full-year shares-outstanding figure was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; total debt was unavailable; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) research | Sagehood