Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
HST

HST Research brief

Host Hotels & Resorts

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$25.30(−1.56%)

Sagehood’s view on HST

Host Hotels & Resorts · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

62Neutral50 is balancedScore change +7 since 2026-10-29, from 55 to 62; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 60 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30

Dated research brief

WhyHost Hotels' constructive lean is driven by a strong trend and a valuation cushion, since price is 18.9% above 200-day average and base fair value is $45.8. The unresolved risk is flat growth, with revenue up 4.9% and earnings due in 6 days.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the constructive lean is that growth is not accelerating.
Break conditionFrom the price-trend specialist: Timing evidence: a daily close below 23.99, the nearest support beyond the noise band, would break the uptrend read.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · exit earnings multiple

Bear
$20.70
Base
$45.80
Bull
$75.90

Base case +81% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Peer-implied median $48.13 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Real Estate
MultipleHSTGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)16.98×32.30×33rd
P/S2.80×6.29×33rd
P/B2.73×1.35×100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the price-trend specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$25.30 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−1.56%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run55 on 2026-10-29 → 62 on 2026-10-30 (+7 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set3 names in Real Estate: O, VICI, WY. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $25.30

+6.1% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

HST adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. HST adjusted close. Continuous series. $25.30 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3062Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2955Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2856Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2752Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2652Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2356Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2255Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2155Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-1650Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-0948Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0748Neutral44Method 4
2026-10-0251Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-0150Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-3047Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2947Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2847Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2546Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective46Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2346Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1846Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective48Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-0446Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective43Bearish50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective53Neutral59Method 3
2026-08-2852Neutral59Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective53Neutral59Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective54Neutral59Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective54Neutral59Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective54Neutral59Method 3
2026-08-1454Neutral59Method 2
2026-08-1359Neutral69Method 1
2026-08-0761Neutral69Method 1
2026-08-0659Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0456Neutral69Method 1
2026-07-3155Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-2359Neutral53Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

HST research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Host Hotels' trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,219 million grew 4.9%, just above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month net margin reached 16.5% and trailing-twelve-month ROE was 15.8%. Growth is stable rather than accelerating, and equity trend is falling.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $6,219 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 4.9% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 0.9%, 12.3%, 3.2% and 3.4%.

Why it matters now

Stable but unaccelerating revenue growth near the sector median leaves the improving net margin as the main earnings driver, and the falling equity trend is a qualification on balance-sheet quality.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth falling below the sector revenue-growth median of 4.8% or if the falling equity trend reflects cash distributions rather than earnings retention. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the modest-growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
7.15
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.15
Weighted contribution
7.41
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.15
Weighted contribution
7.41

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.65

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.41

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.71

News specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.33

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Score
68
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.29
Weighted contribution
19.73

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.15
Weighted contribution
9.25

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.92

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

HST: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

62

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 68Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Close 25.3 sits 1.6% below the 52-week high of 25.7 and 18.9% above 200-day average; the 1-year log channel slopes 58.5% per year with fit R² 0.85, and the 2-year slopes 34.0% per year with fit R² 0.75.

Why it matters

If the 1-year channel holds with fit R² 0.85 and price stays above 200-day average, the pullback from the 25.31 high can resolve into continuation rather than a reversal.

What argues against it

The 5-year channel slope of 8.3% per year with fit R² 0.48 is weak, and the 90-day slope of −1.8% per year with fit R² 0.0 shows no short-term trend, so the advance could stall at the 25.31 resistance.

This specialist’s break condition: Timing evidence: a daily close below 23.99, the nearest support beyond the noise band, would break the uptrend read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 59.42. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +2.58. 55 on 2026-10-29 → 62 on 2026-10-30 (+7 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Price-trend specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $6,219 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 4.9% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 0.9%, 12.3%, 3.2% and 3.4%.

  3. Valuation specialist

    The EPS-model grid prints a base fair value of $45.8 at the 7.4% EPS-growth row and 32.3 exit P/E, against a $25.3 close, and the 3-name peer set implies a $48.13 median price, 90.2% above the close.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

Timing evidence: a daily close below 23.99, the nearest support beyond the noise band, would break the uptrend read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

HST: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $25.30 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by exit earnings multiple, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$20.70−18% vs close
Base
$45.80+81% vs close
Bull
$75.90+200% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $48.13 (+90.2% vs close)

Peers: the 3 Liquid 100 names in Real Estate that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: O, VICI, WY.

Multiples against the peer group

Real Estate · 3 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)16.98×

    Peer median 32.30× · middle half 21.81× to 36.92× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Price to sales2.80×

    Peer median 6.29× · middle half 4.20× to 7.54× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Price to book2.73×

    Peer median 1.35× · middle half 1.12× to 1.46× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield7.63%

    Peer median 5.38% · middle half 4.32% to 6.45% · 100th percentile of the group

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 7 valuation inputs required conservative handling: no full-year gross-profit line was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) research | Sagehood