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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
KDP

KDP Research brief

Keurig Dr Pepper

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$35.84(+1.53%)

Sagehood’s view on KDP

Keurig Dr Pepper · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

60Neutral50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 60; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 60 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30In the current Top-7 book

Dated research brief

WhyKeurig Dr Pepper's constructive lean is driven by a sector-leading trend and fast growth, since price equals its 52-week high and revenue rose 27.5%. The unresolved risk is that base fair value of $35.2 sits 2% below the $35.84 close.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the constructive lean is that the shares are priced for the base case.
Break conditionFrom the price-trend specialist: Timing evidence: a daily close below 33.94, the nearest support beyond the noise band, would break the uptrend read.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$8.10
Base
$35.20
Bull
$121.60

Base case −2% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Peer-implied median $35.21 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Consumer Staples
MultipleKDPGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)36.20×24.33×71st
P/S2.43×2.39×56th
P/B1.95×7.74×12th
FCF yield4.03%5.56%44th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the price-trend specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$35.84 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+1.53%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run60 on 2026-10-29 → 60 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Staples: GIS, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PEP, PG, WMT. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $35.84

+11.8% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

KDP adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. KDP adjusted close. Continuous series. $35.84 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3060Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2960Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2860Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2758Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2656Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2356Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2258Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-2155Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-1658Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0954Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0752Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-0250Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0152Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-3047Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2948Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2848Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2548Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective50Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2352Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1850Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective58Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-0452Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective53Neutral65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective52Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2852Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective52Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective54Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective53Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective50Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1455Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1357Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0756Neutral69Method 1
2026-08-0657Neutral69Method 1
2026-08-0459Neutral59Method 1
2026-07-3153Neutral70Method 1
2026-07-2354Neutral55Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

KDP research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Keurig Dr Pepper's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $20,090 million grew 27.5%, far above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, with free cash flow conversion of 1.38. Gross margin fell 5.5 percentage points and net debt to EBITDA is 6.1.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $20,090 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 27.5% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 10.7%, 10.5%, 9.4% and 75.6%.

Why it matters now

Accelerating revenue growth and free cash flow conversion of 1.38 support the growth read, but the 6.1 net debt to EBITDA and a 5.5 percentage-point gross-margin decline are material qualifications.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the 75.6% latest-quarter revenue growth proves non-recurring and the next filing shows growth back near the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, or if the 6.1 net debt to EBITDA reflects a temporary acquisition-related step-up. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
50
Evidence confidence
80
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
10.40
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.18
Weighted contribution
9.17
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
80
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
9.17

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
60
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.66

Sector specialist

Bullish

Score
68
Evidence confidence
75
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
8.99

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.46

News specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.54

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Score
72
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.23
Weighted contribution
16.51

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
9.54

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.19

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

KDP: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

60

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 72Evidence confidence 65
What the specialist sees

Close 35.84 equals the 52-week high and sits 20.9% above 200-day average; the 1-year log channel slopes 27.2% per year with fit R² 0.69, and the 90-day slopes 27.6% per year with fit R² 0.27.

Why it matters

If the 1-year channel holds with fit R² 0.69 and price stays above 200-day average, the breakout to a new 52-week high can extend rather than revert to the 5-year range.

What argues against it

The 5-year channel slope of −2.2% per year with fit R² 0.15 and the 2-year slope of −2.2% per year with fit R² 0.02 are flat, so the breakout could be a range expansion rather than a new uptrend.

This specialist’s break condition: Timing evidence: a daily close below 33.94, the nearest support beyond the noise band, would break the uptrend read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 59.05. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.95. 60 on 2026-10-29 → 60 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Price-trend specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $20,090 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 27.5% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 10.7%, 10.5%, 9.4% and 75.6%.

  3. Valuation specialist

    The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $35.2 at the 11.2% revenue-growth row and 9.8% FCF margin, 2% below the $35.84 close, and the 3-price comps median of $35.21 is 1.8% below the close.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

Timing evidence: a daily close below 33.94, the nearest support beyond the noise band, would break the uptrend read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

KDP: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $35.84 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$8.10−77% vs close
Base
$35.20−2% vs close
Bull
$121.60+239% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $35.21 (−1.8% vs close)

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Staples that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: GIS, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PEP, PG, WMT.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Staples · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)36.20×

    Peer median 24.33× · middle half 19.61× to 35.79× · 71st percentile of the group

  • Price to sales2.43×

    Peer median 2.39× · middle half 1.36× to 5.55× · 56th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.95×

    Peer median 7.74× · middle half 3.36× to 10.01× · 12th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield4.03%

    Peer median 5.56% · middle half 3.52% to 6.95% · 44th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 10 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the measured beta of 0.09 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) research | Sagehood