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KEY

KEY Research brief

KeyCorp

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$21.12(−1.72%)

Sagehood’s view on KEY

KeyCorp · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

48Neutral50 is balancedScore change −2 since 2026-10-29, from 50 to 48; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 49 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyKEY looks neutral because quarterly revenue growth collapsed from 176.1% to 6.8% while trailing-twelve-month ROE sits at 10.3%. The unresolved risk is that the $10.2 base fair value, 51% below the $21.12 close, understates a durable growth base.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against a neutral stance is that the 51.6% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth is real and the comps median of $22.26 sits 5.4% above the $21.12 close.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · exit earnings multiple

Bear
$9.60
Base
$10.20
Bull
$26.00

Base case −51% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Peer-implied median $22.26 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The market price implies more growth or higher margins than this model assumes, so its base case sits far below the close. The valuation specialist weighs that gap; it is not a forecast that the price will fall.

Against peers

Financials
MultipleKEYGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)12.35×12.57×44th
P/S2.97×3.13×30th
P/B1.17×1.40×30th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$21.12 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−1.72%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run50 on 2026-10-29 → 48 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set10 names in Financials: BAC, C, COIN, HBAN, HOOD, PYPL, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $21.12

−8.9% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

KEY adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. KEY adjusted close. Continuous series. $21.12 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3048Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2950Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2848Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2750Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2646Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2350Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2248Neutral48Method 4
2026-10-2147Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-1640Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-0940Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-0741Bearish42Method 4
2026-10-0242Bearish58Method 4
2026-10-0142Bearish42Method 4
2026-09-3043Bearish52Method 4
2026-09-2943Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-2843Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-2542Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective43Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-2344Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-1846Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective43Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective45Neutral54Method 4
2026-09-0448Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective46Neutral50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective52Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-2852Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective52Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective52Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1453Neutral60Method 2
2026-08-1358Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0756Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0656Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0457Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-3153Neutral59Method 1
2026-07-2350Neutral52Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

KEY research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

KeyCorp's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $7,784 million grew 51.6%, far above the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, but quarterly growth decelerated from 176.1% to 6.8% and trailing-twelve-month ROE is 10.3%.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $7,784 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 51.6% versus the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 176.1%, 133.6%, 10.3% and 6.8%.

Why it matters now

Decelerating quarterly revenue growth from 176.1% to 6.8% and a 10.3% trailing-twelve-month ROE qualify the headline growth, while the flat equity trend and 1.1% share decline leave capital returns roughly neutral.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth recovering above the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, or if the 51.6% trailing-twelve-month growth reflects a one-time item rather than a durable base. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
7.15
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.15
Weighted contribution
7.64
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $7,784 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 51.6% versus the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 176.1%, 133.6%, 10.3% and 6.8%.
Mechanism
Decelerating quarterly revenue growth from 176.1% to 6.8% and a 10.3% trailing-twelve-month ROE qualify the headline growth, while the flat equity trend and 1.1% share decline leave capital returns roughly neutral.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth recovering above the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, or if the 51.6% trailing-twelve-month growth reflects a one-time item rather than a durable base.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.15
Weighted contribution
7.64

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.45

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
40
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.70

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.76

News specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.82

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.24
Weighted contribution
11.28

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.15
Weighted contribution
5.85

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.89

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

KEY: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

48

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 50Evidence confidence 55
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $7,784 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 51.6% versus the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 176.1%, 133.6%, 10.3% and 6.8%.

Why it matters

Decelerating quarterly revenue growth from 176.1% to 6.8% and a 10.3% trailing-twelve-month ROE qualify the headline growth, while the flat equity trend and 1.1% share decline leave capital returns roughly neutral.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth recovering above the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, or if the 51.6% trailing-twelve-month growth reflects a one-time item rather than a durable base.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 48.39. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.39. 50 on 2026-10-29 → 48 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Valuation specialist

    The EPS-model grid prints a base fair value of $10.2 at the −5% EPS-growth row and 12.6 exit P/E, 51% below the $21.12 close, while the 3-price comps median of $22.26 is 5.4% above the close and trailing-twelve-month revenue rose 51.6%.

  3. Sector specialist

    KEY is a laggard in a mixed Financials sector. XLF is above its long-term average but trails SPY by 1.2 percentage points over 63 days, and only 36.4% of peers hold above their 50-day average. KEY trails peers by 5.4 percentage points over 63 days and 11.1 percentage points over 126 days.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

KEY: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $7,784 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 51.6% versus the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 176.1%, 133.6%, 10.3% and 6.8%.

Valuation model

The EPS-model grid prints a base fair value of $10.2 at the −5% EPS-growth row and 12.6 exit P/E, 51% below the $21.12 close, while the 3-price comps median of $22.26 is 5.4% above the close and trailing-twelve-month revenue rose 51.6%.

Potential upside

  • KeyCorp's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $7,784 million grew 51.6%, far above the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, but quarterly growth decelerated from 176.1% to 6.8% and trailing-twelve-month ROE is 10.3%.

Potential downside

  • The EPS-model base case prints a fair value of $10.2, 51% below the $21.12 close, and even the bull case at $26.0 reaches only 23% above the price.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

  • A later reading that puts the comps median below the $21.12 close would remove the confirm verdict that keeps this read above the bearish band.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $21.12 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by exit earnings multiple, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$9.60−55% vs close
Base
$10.20−51% vs close
Bull
$26.00+23% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $22.26 (+5.4% vs close)

Peers: the 10 Liquid 100 names in Financials that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BAC, C, COIN, HBAN, HOOD, PYPL, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC.

Multiples against the peer group

Financials · 10 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)12.35×

    Peer median 12.57× · middle half 11.76× to 16.04× · 44th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales2.97×

    Peer median 3.13× · middle half 2.91× to 5.26× · 30th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.17×

    Peer median 1.40× · middle half 1.15× to 2.72× · 30th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield5.19%

    Peer median 8.37% · middle half −2.63% to 10.31% · 25th percentile of the group

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 12 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

KeyCorp (KEY) research | Sagehood