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KHC

KHC Research brief

Kraft Heinz

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$24.34(+1.84%)

Sagehood’s view on KHC

Kraft Heinz · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

45Neutral50 is balancedScore change +5 since 2026-10-29, from 40 to 45; view changed from Bearish to Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 49 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyKHC looks neutral because trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 1.6% against a 4.8% sector median and the operating margin is −12.8%. The unresolved risk is that price-to-book of 0.8 and a 13.2% FCF yield mark the shares as genuinely cheap.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against a neutral stance is that the shares may be genuinely cheap, since own price-to-book of 0.8 sits at the 0th percentile of the 9-name peer group and own FCF yield of 13.2% is at the 100th percentile.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is the average of two peer-median multiples (price to sales and price to book) that imply prices 4.6 times apart, and it is 5.9 times the close.

Against peers

Consumer Staples
MultipleKHCGroup medianPercentile
P/S1.16×2.43×11th
P/B0.80×7.74×0th
FCF yield13.2%4.03%100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$24.34 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+1.84%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run40 on 2026-10-29 → 45 on 2026-10-30 (+5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Staples: GIS, KDP, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PEP, PG, WMT. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $24.34

+5.4% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

KHC adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. KHC adjusted close. Continuous series. $24.34 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3045Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2940Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2842Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2742Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2647Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2348Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2245Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2142Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-1645Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-0938Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0740Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-0240Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-0140Bearish45Method 4
2026-09-3047Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2948Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2848Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2550Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective50Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-2350Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-1852Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective50Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective44Bearish52Method 4
2026-09-0450Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective52Neutral55Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2857Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective51Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective53Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective53Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1454Neutral73Method 2
2026-08-1354Neutral73Method 1
2026-08-0752Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0652Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0452Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3150Neutral75Method 1
2026-07-2357Neutral55Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

KHC research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Kraft Heinz's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $24,900 million fell 1.6%, below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and trailing-twelve-month operating margin is −12.8% versus the 16.8% sector operating-margin median. Free cash flow was $3,816 million.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,900 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of −1.6% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was −2.3%, −3.4%, 0.8% and −1.4%.

Why it matters now

Stable but negative revenue growth and a −12.8% trailing-twelve-month operating margin against the 16.8% sector operating-margin median support the weak-business read, while the 14.6 percentage-point operating-margin expansion is a qualification.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the next filing shows trailing-twelve-month revenue growth recovering above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, or if the negative trailing-twelve-month operating margin reflects a one-time impairment rather than an operating loss. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
7.15
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.16
Weighted contribution
6.13
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,900 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of −1.6% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was −2.3%, −3.4%, 0.8% and −1.4%.
Mechanism
Stable but negative revenue growth and a −12.8% trailing-twelve-month operating margin against the 16.8% sector operating-margin median support the weak-business read, while the 14.6 percentage-point operating-margin expansion is a qualification.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the next filing shows trailing-twelve-month revenue growth recovering above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, or if the negative trailing-twelve-month operating margin reflects a one-time impairment rather than an operating loss.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
6.13

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.37

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
5.21

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.86

News specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
40
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.47

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.27
Weighted contribution
14.09

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.42

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.36

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

KHC: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

45

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 38Evidence confidence 55
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,900 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of −1.6% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was −2.3%, −3.4%, 0.8% and −1.4%.

Why it matters

Stable but negative revenue growth and a −12.8% trailing-twelve-month operating margin against the 16.8% sector operating-margin median support the weak-business read, while the 14.6 percentage-point operating-margin expansion is a qualification.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the next filing shows trailing-twelve-month revenue growth recovering above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, or if the negative trailing-twelve-month operating margin reflects a one-time impairment rather than an operating loss.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 46.92. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −1.92. 40 on 2026-10-29 → 45 on 2026-10-30 (+5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Risk specialist

    Vol20d is 33.6% against sixty-day annualized volatility 28.0% with a rising trend, drawdown from the one-year high is −10.5% versus largest one-year drawdown −19.7%, one-year large daily-move count is 6, and earnings arrive in 5 days.

  3. Valuation specialist

    No DCF grid is available because debt and net debt are unavailable, and the 2-price comps median of $142.76 is 486.5% above the $24.34 close, a gap the input declines as far from the close.

    This view cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation & peers.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

KHC: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $24,900 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of −1.6% versus the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was −2.3%, −3.4%, 0.8% and −1.4%.

Valuation model

No DCF grid is available because debt and net debt are unavailable, and the 2-price comps median of $142.76 is 486.5% above the $24.34 close, a gap the input declines as far from the close.

This analysis cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation & peers.

Potential upside

  • No DCF grid was computed because the balance basis is unavailable, and the 2-price comps median of $142.76 is 486.5% above the $24.34 close, a figure the input itself declines as far from the close. With no grid and a 2-price peer set, the read is neutral.

See the note under Key figures above.

Potential downside

  • Kraft Heinz's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $24,900 million fell 1.6%, below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, and trailing-twelve-month operating margin is −12.8% versus the 16.8% sector operating-margin median. Free cash flow was $3,816 million.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the stabilization claim.

  • A later reading that supplies the missing debt and net debt and prints a DCF grid would replace this neutral read with a grid-anchored one.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Cash-flow model unavailable

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $24.34 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-27.

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is the average of two peer-median multiples (price to sales and price to book) that imply prices 4.6 times apart, and it is 5.9 times the close.

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Staples that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: GIS, KDP, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PEP, PG, WMT.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Staples · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)Not computed in this research

    Peer median 26.04× · middle half 20.78× to 38.11×

  • Price to sales1.16×

    Peer median 2.43× · middle half 1.92× to 5.55× · 11th percentile of the group

  • Price to book0.80×

    Peer median 7.74× · middle half 3.36× to 10.01× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield13.2%

    Peer median 4.03% · middle half 3.52% to 6.3% · 100th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 13 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; total debt was unavailable; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete; the measured beta of 0.16 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) research | Sagehood