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KLAC

KLAC Research brief

KLA Corporation

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$157.91(−5.69%)

Sagehood’s view on KLAC

KLA Corporation · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

38Bearish50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 38; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 65 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyKLAC looks bearish because the DCF base case of $44.6 sits 72% below the $157.91 close and price is 13.1% under 200-day average. The unresolved risk is that the 5-year channel still slopes 46.1% per year, so this may be a pullback.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against a bearish stance is that the long-run channels remain positive, with the 5-year slope at 46.1% per year at fit R² 0.9 and the 2-year at 101.8% per year at fit R² 0.91.
Break conditionA later reading that puts the comps median above the $157.91 close would break the confirm verdict that anchors this bearish read.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$17.70
Base
$44.60
Bull
$79.90

Base case −72% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-30. Peer-implied median $72.91 from 3 peer-median multiples. Those medians include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

The market price implies more growth or higher margins than this model assumes, so its base case sits far below the close. The valuation specialist weighs that gap; it is not a forecast that the price will fall.

Against peers

Information Technology
MultipleKLACGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)39.58×29.89×65th
P/S14.27×6.59×78th
P/B31.74×8.30×88th
FCF yield1.95%2.61%30th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$157.91 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−5.69%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run38 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set27 names in Information Technology, listed with how they were chosen under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $157.91

−38.9% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

KLAC adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. KLAC adjusted close. Continuous series. $157.91 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3038Bearish65Method 4
2026-10-2938Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2838Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2738Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-2638Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-2336Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2230Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-2136Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-1633Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-0944Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0746Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-0250Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0152Neutral48Method 4
2026-09-3047Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2945Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2845Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2546Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective48Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2350Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1852Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-0454Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective46Neutral50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective53Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-2854Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective58Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective60Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1457Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1357Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0755Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0655Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0457Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3146Neutral77Method 1
2026-07-2348Neutral55Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

KLAC research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

KLA's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $14,506 million grew 15.8%, below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, but quarterly growth accelerated to 28.9% and trailing-twelve-month net margin reached 36.2%. Free cash flow conversion of 0.77 trails the 1.01 sector median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $14,506 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 15.8% versus the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 7.2%, 11.5%, 15.2% and 28.9%.

Why it matters now

Accelerating revenue growth and a 36.2% trailing-twelve-month net margin support the quality read, but free cash flow conversion of 0.77 trails the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and the 296-day cash conversion cycle is a working-capital qualification.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth falling below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, or if the 0.77 free cash flow conversion reflects a temporary working-capital swing rather than a structural cash drag. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
50
Evidence confidence
80
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
10.40
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.18
Weighted contribution
9.15
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
80
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
9.15

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
32
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
2.48

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
33
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
3.20

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.45

News specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.86

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
32
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.25
Weighted contribution
7.89

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
22
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
4.03

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.18

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

KLAC: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

38

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 22Evidence confidence 65
What the specialist sees

The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $44.6 at the 12.3% revenue-growth row and 27.8% FCF margin, 72% below the $157.91 close, and the 3-price comps median of $72.91 is 53.8% below the close.

This view cites the peer-implied figure, whose sector median this page flags. See Valuation & peers.
Why it matters

If the 12.3% growth row and 27.8% margin hold, the discounted cash flows support less than a third of the traded price, so the shares depend on growth and margins well above the base case to justify the close.

What argues against it

The base growth row of 12.3% is above the 9.0% 3-year compound annual revenue growth and the 12.25% WACC is high, so the grid may understate a durable franchise, and the 3-price comps median is a thin basis.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading that puts the comps median above the $157.91 close would break the confirm verdict that anchors this bearish read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 38.24. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.24. 38 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Valuation specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close 157.91 is 47.6% below the 52-week high of 301.37 and 13.1% below 200-day average; the 1-year log channel slopes 74.1% per year with fit R² 0.55, and the 90-day slopes −63.6% per year with fit R² 0.6.

  3. Risk specialist

    Vol20d is 54.5% against sixty-day annualized volatility 50.0% with a stable trend, drawdown from the one-year high is −47.6% versus largest one-year drawdown −51.7%, one-year large daily-move count is 57, and worst five-day return over one year is −26.7%.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading that puts the comps median above the $157.91 close would break the confirm verdict that anchors this bearish read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

KLAC: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $14,506 million with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 15.8% versus the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly revenue growth over the last four quarters was 7.2%, 11.5%, 15.2% and 28.9%.

Valuation model

The DCF grid prints a base fair value of $44.6 at the 12.3% revenue-growth row and 27.8% FCF margin, 72% below the $157.91 close, and the 3-price comps median of $72.91 is 53.8% below the close.

This analysis cites the peer-implied figure, whose sector median this page flags. See Valuation & peers.

Potential upside

  • KLA's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $14,506 million grew 15.8%, below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, but quarterly growth accelerated to 28.9% and trailing-twelve-month net margin reached 36.2%. Free cash flow conversion of 0.77 trails the 1.01 sector median.

Potential downside

  • The DCF base case prints a fair value of $44.6, 72% below the $157.91 close, and even the bull case at $79.9 leaves the price 49% above fair value.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

  • A later reading that puts the comps median above the $157.91 close would break the confirm verdict that anchors this bearish read.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $157.91 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$17.70−89% vs close
Base
$44.60−72% vs close
Bull
$79.90−49% vs close

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $72.91 (−53.8% vs close)

Peers: the 27 Liquid 100 names in Information Technology that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The 27 names

AAPL, AMD, APH, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, GEN, GLW, HPE, HPQ, INTC, LRCX, MCHP, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NOW, NVDA, ON, ORCL, PLTR, QCOM, SMCI, SNDK, WDC.

Multiples against the peer group

Information Technology · 27 companies in the group

Sector median includes AVGO, whose per-share figure failed the share-basis check in this research.

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)39.58×

    Peer median 29.89× · middle half 19.24× to 49.15× · 65th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales14.27×

    Peer median 6.59× · middle half 4.55× to 11.36× · 78th percentile of the group

  • Price to book31.74×

    Peer median 8.30× · middle half 6.41× to 15.04× · 88th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield1.95%

    Peer median 2.61% · middle half 1.33% to 5.43% · 30th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 12 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

KLA Corporation (KLAC) research | Sagehood