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KMI

KMI Research brief

Kinder Morgan

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$33.87(−0.29%)

Sagehood’s view on KMI

Kinder Morgan · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

53Neutral50 is balancedScore change −5 since 2026-10-29, from 58 to 53; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyKMI looks neutral because the 5-year uptrend at 23.4% per year conflicts with a $15.8 base fair value 53% below the $33.87 close. The unresolved risk is that net debt to EBITDA of 4.12 exceeds the 1.31 sector median.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against a neutral stance is that the uptrend is intact, with the 5-year channel at 23.4% per year at fit R² 0.89 and price 6.7% above 200-day average. If the $30.48 support holds, the valuation gap may not bind over this horizon.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 5.5 leverage-relaxed threshold would break the balance-sheet read.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$4.50
Base
$15.80
Bull
$43.60

Base case −53% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-30. Peer-implied median $22.94 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

The market price implies more growth or higher margins than this model assumes, so its base case sits far below the close. The valuation specialist weighs that gap; it is not a forecast that the price will fall.

Against peers

Energy
MultipleKMIGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)20.91×14.16×67th
P/S4.50×2.23×100th
P/B2.39×2.00×50th
FCF yield4.09%6.61%0th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$33.87 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.29%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run58 on 2026-10-29 → 53 on 2026-10-30 (−5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set6 names in Energy: CVX, DVN, EQT, HAL, OXY, SLB. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $33.87

+3.6% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

KMI adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. KMI adjusted close. Continuous series. $33.87 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3053Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2958Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2852Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2752Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2652Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2357Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2255Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-2155Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-1650Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0952Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0752Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-0250Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0150Neutral46Method 4
2026-09-3049Neutral40Method 4
2026-09-2950Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-2849Neutral49Method 4
2026-09-2550Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective52Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2350Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1850Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective46Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-0446Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective52Neutral55Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective49Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-2849Neutral58Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective49Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective49Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective49Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective50Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1459Neutral70Method 2
2026-08-1358Neutral68Method 1
2026-08-0758Neutral68Method 1
2026-08-0658Neutral68Method 1
2026-08-0459Neutral68Method 1
2026-07-3157Neutral45Method 1
2026-07-2363Neutral64Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

KMI research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Kinder Morgan pairs $16,745 million of trailing-twelve-month revenue growing 13.4% with a 31.7% operating margin, but net debt to EBITDA of 4.12 is well above the 1.31 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, so leverage is the material constraint.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: Kinder Morgan shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $16,745 million, trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 13.4%, trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 31.7%, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $3,082 million, and net debt to EBITDA of 4.12.

Why it matters now

Stable mid-teens revenue growth and a 31.7% operating margin support steady cash generation, but net debt to EBITDA of 4.12 sits above the 1.31 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median and caps the quality read.

What could change the view

Countercase: If the next filing shows trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the $3,082 million level or net debt to EBITDA above the leverage-relaxed threshold, the modestly constructive read would be wrong. Falsifier: A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 5.5 leverage-relaxed threshold would break the balance-sheet read.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
9.73
Business driver
Kinder Morgan shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $16,745 million, trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 13.4%, trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 31.7%, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $3,082 million, and net debt to EBITDA of 4.12.
Mechanism
Stable mid-teens revenue growth and a 31.7% operating margin support steady cash generation, but net debt to EBITDA of 4.12 sits above the 1.31 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median and caps the quality read.
Countercase
If the next filing shows trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the $3,082 million level or net debt to EBITDA above the leverage-relaxed threshold, the modestly constructive read would be wrong.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
9.73

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
5.03

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.26

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.52

News specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
58
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.12

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Score
68
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.26
Weighted contribution
17.55

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
4.87

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.22

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

KMI: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

53

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 58Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Kinder Morgan shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $16,745 million, trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 13.4%, trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 31.7%, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $3,082 million, and net debt to EBITDA of 4.12.

Why it matters

Stable mid-teens revenue growth and a 31.7% operating margin support steady cash generation, but net debt to EBITDA of 4.12 sits above the 1.31 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median and caps the quality read.

What argues against it

If the next filing shows trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the $3,082 million level or net debt to EBITDA above the leverage-relaxed threshold, the modestly constructive read would be wrong.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 5.5 leverage-relaxed threshold would break the balance-sheet read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 53.30. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.30. 58 on 2026-10-29 → 53 on 2026-10-30 (−5 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close 33.87 sits 6.7% above 200-day average and 5.7% above 50-day average, with a golden cross 203 days old; the 5-year channel slopes 23.4% per year at fit R² 0.89 and the 1-year channel 24.7% per year at fit R² 0.54.

  3. Valuation specialist

    The base case pairs 0.3% revenue growth with an 18.4% FCF margin for a $15.8 fair value, 53% below the $33.87 close, while the peer-implied median of $22.94 is 32.3% below the close and the own price-to-sales percentile is 100.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 5.5 leverage-relaxed threshold would break the balance-sheet read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

KMI: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Kinder Morgan shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $16,745 million, trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 13.4%, trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 31.7%, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $3,082 million, and net debt to EBITDA of 4.12.

Valuation model

The base case pairs 0.3% revenue growth with an 18.4% FCF margin for a $15.8 fair value, 53% below the $33.87 close, while the peer-implied median of $22.94 is 32.3% below the close and the own price-to-sales percentile is 100.

Potential upside

  • Kinder Morgan pairs $16,745 million of trailing-twelve-month revenue growing 13.4% with a 31.7% operating margin, but net debt to EBITDA of 4.12 is well above the 1.31 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, so leverage is the material constraint.

Potential downside

  • Base fair value of $15.8 sits 53% below the $33.87 close, and the bear case at $4.5 is 87% below, so the grid reads rich. Comps confirm: the peer-implied median of $22.94 is 32.3% below the close. Revenue CAGR of −5.7% over three years caps the base growth row.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 5.5 leverage-relaxed threshold would break the balance-sheet read.

  • A later reading showing the peer-implied median above the traded close would break the rich-valuation claim, since the peer-implied median of $22.94 currently sits 32.3% below the close.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $33.87 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$4.50−87% vs close
Base
$15.80−53% vs close
Bull
$43.60+29% vs close

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $22.94 (−32.3% vs close)

Peers: the 6 Liquid 100 names in Energy that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: CVX, DVN, EQT, HAL, OXY, SLB.

Multiples against the peer group

Energy · 6 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)20.91×

    Peer median 14.16× · middle half 11.79× to 20.80× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales4.50×

    Peer median 2.23× · middle half 1.78× to 2.65× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to book2.39×

    Peer median 2.00× · middle half 1.41× to 2.66× · 50th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield4.09%

    Peer median 6.61% · middle half 5.64% to 10.04% · 0th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 15 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; stock-based compensation is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) research | Sagehood