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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

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MO

MO Research brief

Altria

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$78.03(+1.67%)

Sagehood’s view on MO

Altria · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

60Neutral50 is balancedMO was not in the previous published research (2026-10-29), so there is no earlier score or view to compare.Confidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyAltria's cheap valuation drives the neutral view, because the $91.3 base fair value sits 17% above the $78.03 close while revenue grew only 0.5%. The unresolved risk is repeated 10-K/A amendments dated 2026-05-27.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is the 47.0% operating margin and 1.12 free-cash-flow conversion, far above the 16.8% sector margin median. That cash generation could keep re-rating the shares even with flat revenue.
Break conditionFrom the valuation specialist: A later reading showing revenue growth below the threshold of −1% would break the bullish read.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$57.40
Base
$91.30
Bull
$138.50

Base case +17% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-30. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is the average of two peer-median multiples (price to earnings and price to sales) that imply prices 4.0 times apart.

Against peers

Consumer Staples
MultipleMOGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)16.09×27.75×0th
P/S5.55×2.39×78th
FCF yield6.95%4.03%78th
Score details & research limitations11 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the valuation specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$78.03 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+1.67%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted runPrior run is not identified in this research; score change is unavailable.

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, The run this is compared with, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Staples: GIS, KDP, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, PEP, PG, WMT. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

11 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $78.03

+8.3% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

MO adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. MO adjusted close. Continuous series. $78.03 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-08-07 to 2026-10-30 · 30 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3060Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2656Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2356Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2260Neutral68Method 4
2026-10-2155Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-1658Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-0957Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-0752Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-0254Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0151Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-3052Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2952Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2853Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2552Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective50Neutral52Method 4
2026-09-2352Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-1853Neutral70Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective55Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective47Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-0451Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-2854Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1458Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1358Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0756Neutral63Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

MO research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Altria's trailing revenue was essentially flat at 0.5% growth, below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, but its 47.0% operating margin and 1.12 free-cash-flow conversion remain strong.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $23,517 million with 0.5% growth, below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 47.0% versus the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

Why it matters now

A 47.0% operating margin and 1.12 free-cash-flow conversion support cash generation, but flat 0.5% revenue growth and a 1.89 net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio limit the read.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 47.0% trailing-twelve-month operating margin and 1.12 free-cash-flow conversion could compress if revenue stays flat and the 1.89 net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio rises. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median would break the margin claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
10.11
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
10.11

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
60
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.70

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
60
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
6.32

SEC filings specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.39

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
40
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.21

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Score
66
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.25
Weighted contribution
16.43

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
9.27

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.06

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

MO: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

60

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 55Evidence confidence 55
What the specialist sees

The base case of the grid pairs −1% revenue growth with a 38.6% FCF margin for a fair value of $91.3, which is 17% above the $78.03 close, while the peer-implied median of $84.09 is 7.8% above the close.

This view cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation range.
Why it matters

If Altria can hold its FCF margin near 38.6% while revenue declines only 1%, the grid's base fair value of $91.3 implies the stock is undervalued by 17%.

What argues against it

The base case assumes −1% revenue growth and a 38.6% FCF margin, but Altria's revenue has been declining and its margin trend is −0.5 points per year, so the base case may be optimistic.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing revenue growth below the threshold of −1% would break the bullish read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 58.49. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +1.51. Prior run is not identified in this research; score change is unavailable.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Valuation specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $23,517 million with 0.5% growth, below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 47.0% versus the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

  3. Price-trend specialist

    MO closed at $78.03, 16.1% above its 200-day average and 6.5% above its EMA21, with the 5-year channel at trend-channel position 1.46 standard deviations and the 2-year channel at trend-channel position 1.32 standard deviations.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing revenue growth below the threshold of -1% would break the bullish read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

MO: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $78.03 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$57.40−26% vs close
Base
$91.30+17% vs close
Bull
$138.50+78% vs close

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is the average of two peer-median multiples (price to earnings and price to sales) that imply prices 4.0 times apart.

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Staples that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: GIS, KDP, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, PEP, PG, WMT.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Staples · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)16.09×

    Peer median 27.75× · middle half 23.13× to 40.02× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales5.55×

    Peer median 2.39× · middle half 1.36× to 4.42× · 78th percentile of the group

  • Price to bookNot computed in this research

    Peer median 7.03× · middle half 2.48× to 9.99×

  • Free cash flow yield6.95%

    Peer median 4.03% · middle half 3.52% to 6.3% · 78th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 5 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; stock-based compensation is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the measured beta of -0.20 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Altria (MO) research | Sagehood