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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

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MRK

MRK Research brief

Merck & Co.

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$149.52(+2.18%)

Sagehood’s view on MRK

Merck & Co. · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

58Neutral50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 58; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyMerck's cash conversion drives the neutral view, because free-cash-flow conversion of 5.06 far exceeds the 1.17 sector median while the $122.1 base value sits 18% below the close. The unresolved risk is a 25-NSE filed 2026-10-15.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is the 5.06 free-cash-flow conversion, far above the 1.17 sector median, with a 4.21% positive earnings reaction. That cash strength could justify a higher multiple than the $122.1 base value.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion below the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-conversion claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$67.50
Base
$122.10
Bull
$202.20

Base case −18% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 3.5 times the estimate.

Against peers

Health Care
MultipleMRKGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)119.62×20.39×100th
P/S5.55×2.87×83rd
P/B8.81×2.50×83rd
FCF yield4.35%6.03%17th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$149.52 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+2.18%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run58 on 2026-10-29 → 58 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set6 names in Health Care: BMY, BSX, MDT, MRNA, PFE, VTRS. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $149.52

+19.9% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

MRK adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. MRK adjusted close. Continuous series. $149.52 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3058Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2958Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2852Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2750Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2650Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2352Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2250Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2153Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-1652Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0955Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-0750Neutral48Method 4
2026-10-0258Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-0154Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-3054Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2955Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2855Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2554Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective55Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-2355Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-1857Neutral70Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective54Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective56Neutral70Method 4
2026-09-0458Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective52Neutral73Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2852Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective52Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective53Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective54Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective52Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1460Neutral71Method 2
2026-08-1360Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0759Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0658Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0457Neutral71Method 1
2026-07-3157Neutral62Method 1
2026-07-2364Neutral68Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

MRK research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Merck's trailing revenue grew 4.6%, in line with the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, and free-cash-flow conversion of 5.06 far exceeds the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $66,569 million with 4.6% growth, matching the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion was 5.06 versus the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Why it matters now

Free-cash-flow conversion of 5.06, far above the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median, supports cash generation, but the 1.5 percentage-point gross-margin decline and 4.8% net margin temper the read.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 5.06 free-cash-flow conversion and 4.6% revenue growth could weaken if the 1.5 percentage-point gross-margin decline continues and net margin stays depressed. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion below the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-conversion claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
51
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
8.55
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $66,569 million with 4.6% growth, matching the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion was 5.06 versus the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.
Mechanism
Free-cash-flow conversion of 5.06, far above the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median, supports cash generation, but the 1.5 percentage-point gross-margin decline and 4.8% net margin temper the read.
Countercase
The 5.06 free-cash-flow conversion and 4.6% revenue growth could weaken if the 1.5 percentage-point gross-margin decline continues and net margin stays depressed.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
51
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
8.55

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.30

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
60
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
6.63

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.37

News specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
7.53

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
64
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.26
Weighted contribution
16.50

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
35
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
4.64

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.86

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

MRK: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

58

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 51Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $66,569 million with 4.6% growth, matching the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion was 5.06 versus the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Why it matters

Free-cash-flow conversion of 5.06, far above the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median, supports cash generation, but the 1.5 percentage-point gross-margin decline and 4.8% net margin temper the read.

What argues against it

The 5.06 free-cash-flow conversion and 4.6% revenue growth could weaken if the 1.5 percentage-point gross-margin decline continues and net margin stays depressed.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion below the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-conversion claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 55.37. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +2.63. 58 on 2026-10-29 → 58 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. News specialist

    The aggregate shows material-news net tone of 0.14 with 7 good-news days followed by outperformance against 2 bad-news days followed by underperformance, and the top items are a Barrons.com earnings beat and an Associated Press Q3 snapshot, both with a 4.21% reaction.

  3. Price-trend specialist

    MRK closed at $149.52, 19.1% above its 200-day average and 3.0% above its EMA21, with the 1-year channel at trend-channel position −0.01 standard deviations and the 90-day channel at trend-channel position −0.46 standard deviations.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free-cash-flow conversion below the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-conversion claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

MRK: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $66,569 million with 4.6% growth, matching the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion was 5.06 versus the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Valuation model

The base case of the grid pairs 2.1% revenue growth with a 24.1% FCF margin for a fair value of $122.1, which is −18% versus the $149.52 close, while the peer-implied median of $42.41 is −71.6% below the close.

This analysis cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation range.

Potential upside

  • Merck's trailing revenue grew 4.6%, in line with the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, and free-cash-flow conversion of 5.06 far exceeds the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Potential downside

  • Base fair value of $122.1 is −18% versus the $149.52 close, with the peer-implied median at $42.41 (−71.6%) and own P/E at the 100th percentile, so the comps verdict is contradict.

See the note under Key figures above.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free-cash-flow conversion below the 1.17 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the cash-conversion claim.

  • A later reading showing revenue growth above the threshold of 2.1% would break the bearish read.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $149.52 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$67.50−55% vs close
Base
$122.10−18% vs close
Bull
$202.20+35% vs close

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 3.5 times the estimate.

Peers: the 6 Liquid 100 names in Health Care that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BMY, BSX, MDT, MRNA, PFE, VTRS.

Multiples against the peer group

Health Care · 6 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)119.62×

    Peer median 20.39× · middle half 16.21× to 27.88× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales5.55×

    Peer median 2.87× · middle half 2.61× to 3.22× · 83rd percentile of the group

  • Price to book8.81×

    Peer median 2.50× · middle half 2.15× to 4.72× · 83rd percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield4.35%

    Peer median 6.03% · middle half 5.15% to 7.01% · 17th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 10 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the measured beta of 0.22 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Merck & Co. (MRK) research | Sagehood