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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
MRNA

MRNA Research brief

Moderna

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$221.72(−0.47%)

Sagehood’s view on MRNA

Moderna · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

50Neutral50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 50; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 45 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30

Dated research brief

WhyModerna's cash burn drives the neutral view, because operating margin is −149.0% and free cash flow is negative $1,244 million while price sits 156.1% above its 200-day average. The unresolved risk is earnings in 7 days.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is the 156.1% advance above the 200-day average with a 614.3% one-year slope. That momentum could persist if the 7-day earnings event confirms the pipeline narrative.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the negative 149.0% level would break the margin claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

No fair-value range was computed for this run: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Against peers

Health Care
MultipleMRNAGroup medianPercentile
P/S39.31×2.87×100th
P/B12.95×2.50×100th
FCF yield−1.42%6.03%0th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$221.72 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.47%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run50 on 2026-10-29 → 50 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set6 names in Health Care: BMY, BSX, MDT, MRK, PFE, VTRS. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. “Valuation & peers” says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $221.72

+271.1% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

MRNA adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. MRNA adjusted close. Continuous series. $221.72 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-08-19 to 2026-10-30 · 30 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (2 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3050Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-2950Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-2850Neutral50Method 2
2026-10-2745Neutral55Method 2
2026-10-2645Neutral49Method 2
2026-10-2344Bearish55Method 2
2026-10-2250Neutral40Method 2
2026-10-2150Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-1650Neutral50Method 2
2026-10-0950Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-0750Neutral45Method 2
2026-10-0240Bearish55Method 2
2026-10-0148Neutral55Method 2
2026-09-3050Neutral40Method 2
2026-09-2951Neutral40Method 2
2026-09-2853Neutral50Method 2
2026-09-2550Neutral55Method 2
2026-09-24 · retrospective50Neutral45Method 2
2026-09-2350Neutral55Method 2
2026-09-1850Neutral75Method 2
2026-09-16 · retrospective44Bearish45Method 2
2026-09-09 · retrospective44Bearish63Method 2
2026-09-0455Neutral65Method 2
2026-09-01 · retrospective51Neutral60Method 2
2026-08-31 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-2851Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-26 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-24 · retrospective50Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-20 · retrospective50Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-19 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

MRNA research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Moderna's trailing revenue fell 27.6%, below the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, with a −149.0% operating margin and negative $1,244 million free cash flow.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $2,228 million with −27.6% growth, below the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −149.0% versus the 17.1% sector operating-margin median.

Why it matters now

A −149.0% operating margin and negative $1,244 million free cash flow show the business is burning cash, and the 42.7 percentage-point operating-margin decline confirms severe deterioration.

What could change the view

Countercase: The negative $1,244 million free cash flow and −149.0% operating margin could persist if revenue stays depressed and the 42.7 percentage-point operating-margin decline continues. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the negative 149.0% level would break the margin claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
30
Evidence confidence
65
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
8.45
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.18
Weighted contribution
5.25
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $2,228 million with −27.6% growth, below the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −149.0% versus the 17.1% sector operating-margin median.
Mechanism
A −149.0% operating margin and negative $1,244 million free cash flow show the business is burning cash, and the 42.7 percentage-point operating-margin decline confirms severe deterioration.
Countercase
The negative $1,244 million free cash flow and −149.0% operating margin could persist if revenue stays depressed and the 42.7 percentage-point operating-margin decline continues.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
5.25

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
35
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
3.60

Sector specialist

Bullish

Score
72
Evidence confidence
78
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
11.64

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
47
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.46

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.13

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.23
Weighted contribution
13.22

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.97

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.97

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

MRNA: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

50

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 30Evidence confidence 65
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $2,228 million with −27.6% growth, below the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −149.0% versus the 17.1% sector operating-margin median.

Why it matters

A −149.0% operating margin and negative $1,244 million free cash flow show the business is burning cash, and the 42.7 percentage-point operating-margin decline confirms severe deterioration.

What argues against it

The negative $1,244 million free cash flow and −149.0% operating margin could persist if revenue stays depressed and the 42.7 percentage-point operating-margin decline continues.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the negative 149.0% level would break the margin claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 50.24. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.24. 50 on 2026-10-29 → 50 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    MRNA closed at $221.72, 156.1% above its 200-day average and 5.8% above its EMA21, with the 1-year channel at trend-channel position 1.24 standard deviations and the 5-year channel at trend-channel position 3.68 standard deviations.

  3. Risk specialist

    MRNA shows twenty-day annualized volatility 104.3% against sixty-day annualized volatility 371.8% with volatility trend falling, one-year large daily-move count 93, drawdown from the one-year high −9.8% against maximum one-year drawdown −34.2%, downside beta 1.75 against SPY beta 2.2, and days to earnings 7.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM operating margin below the negative 149.0% level would break the margin claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

MRNA: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $2,228 million with −27.6% growth, below the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was −149.0% versus the 17.1% sector operating-margin median.

Valuation model

No DCF grid is available because the FCF path is negative, and the peer-implied median of $29.49 is −86.7% below the $221.72 close, while own P/B is at the 100th percentile.

This analysis cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation & peers.

Potential upside

  • No DCF grid is available, so the read rests on the peer-implied median of $29.49, which is −86.7% versus the $221.72 close, and own P/B sits at the 100th percentile.

See the note under Key figures above.

Potential downside

  • Moderna's trailing revenue fell 27.6%, below the 4.6% sector revenue-growth median, with a −149.0% operating margin and negative $1,244 million free cash flow.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the negative 149.0% level would break the margin claim.

  • A later reading showing the peer-implied median above the threshold of $29.49 would break the bearish read.

See the note under Key figures above.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $221.72 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

No fair-value range this session: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: the close is 7.5 times the estimate.

Peers: the 6 Liquid 100 names in Health Care that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BMY, BSX, MDT, MRK, PFE, VTRS.

Multiples against the peer group

Health Care · 6 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)Not computed in this research

    Peer median 23.78× · middle half 17.00× to 40.16×

  • Price to sales39.31×

    Peer median 2.87× · middle half 2.61× to 3.22× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to book12.95×

    Peer median 2.50× · middle half 2.15× to 4.72× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield−1.42%

    Peer median 6.03% · middle half 5.15% to 7.01% · 0th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 9 valuation inputs required conservative handling: no full-year gross-profit line was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete; the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Moderna (MRNA) research | Sagehood