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Micron Technology

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$884.74(−5.30%)

Sagehood’s view on MU

Micron Technology · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

62Neutral50 is balancedScore change +2 since 2026-10-29, from 60 to 62; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30

Dated research brief

WhyMicron's cheap valuation drives the neutral view, because the $1952.5 base fair value sits 121% above the $884.74 close while the drawdown is −27.1%. The unresolved risk is 104 large-move days over the last year.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is the 256.3% revenue growth with a 74.6% operating margin and $58,963 million of free cash flow. That upcycle could close the valuation gap if memory demand holds.
Break conditionFrom the valuation specialist: A later reading showing revenue growth falling below 5% while the FCF margin drops to 40.3% would break the cheap-valuation claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$326.50
Base
$1,952.50
Bull
$2,110.70

Base case +121% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-03. Peer-implied median $1,015.34 from 3 peer-median multiples. Those medians include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Information Technology
MultipleMUGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)11.90×32.93×12th
P/S7.56×6.59×56th
P/B7.28×8.35×36th
FCF yield5.86%2.54%83rd
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the valuation specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$884.74 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−5.30%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run60 on 2026-10-29 → 62 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set27 names in Information Technology, listed with how they were chosen under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $884.74

−27.1% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

MU adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. MU adjusted close. Continuous series. $884.74 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3062Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2960Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2868Bullish60Method 4
2026-10-2762Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2660Neutral70Method 4
2026-10-2362Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2250Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-2154Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-1650Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0957Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-0758Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0255Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0163Neutral62Method 4
2026-09-3058Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2958Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2858Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2558Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective58Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-2358Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-1859Neutral75Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective50Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective62Neutral64Method 4
2026-09-0452Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2855Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1459Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1358Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0758Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0658Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0458Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3148Neutral74Method 1
2026-07-2349Neutral46Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

MU research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bullish

Micron's revenue is up 256.3% with a 74.6% operating margin and $58,963 million of free cash flow, but 0.69 conversion trails the sector and the cycle's durability is unproven.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $133,188 million with 256.3% growth to 2026-09-03, far above the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 74.6% against the 23.2% sector operating-margin median and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $58,963 million.

Why it matters now

Revenue growth of 256.3% with a 74.6% operating margin and $58,963 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow shows an extreme upcycle, but free-cash-flow conversion of 0.69 is below the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and the cycle's durability is unobserved.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-K filed on 2026-10-09 is not yet reflected in these facts, and free-cash-flow conversion of 0.69 sits below the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median, so cash conversion may read worse once that filing is captured. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
74
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
12.52
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bullish

Score
74
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
12.52

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
2.45

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
7.55

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.53

News specialist

Neutral

Score
47
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.29

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.22
Weighted contribution
10.04

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
64
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
10.47

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.46

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

MU: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

62

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 64Evidence confidence 55
What the specialist sees

The base case pairs 45% revenue growth with a 44.3% FCF margin for a $1952.5 fair value, 121% above the $884.74 close, while the comps median of $1015.34 implies +14.8% upside and the own P/E of 11.9 sits at the 12th percentile.

This view cites the peer-implied figure, whose sector median this page flags. See Valuation & peers.
Why it matters

If the grid's 14.9% WACC and 45% base growth hold, the market is paying roughly half the modeled intrinsic value, so the multiple would have to re-rate or the memory cycle would have to roll over to close the gap.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the 45% base growth row is a memory-cycle peak that mean-reverts, since the five-year revenue CAGR of 36.9% and the 2023 EBIT margin of −37.0% show how violent the down-cycle can be.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing revenue growth falling below 5% while the FCF margin drops to 40.3% would break the cheap-valuation claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 54.30. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +7.70. 60 on 2026-10-29 → 62 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Valuation specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $133,188 million with 256.3% growth to 2026-09-03, far above the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 74.6% against the 23.2% sector operating-margin median and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $58,963 million.

  3. Risk specialist

    MU shows twenty-day annualized volatility of 58.4 against sixty-day annualized volatility of 53.7, drawdown from the one-year high of −27.1 versus maximum one-year drawdown of −39.1, one-year large daily-move count of 104, downside beta of 3.4 against SPY beta of 3.4, and worst five-day return over one year of −23.0.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing revenue growth falling below the 5% row while the FCF margin drops to 40.3% would break the cheap-valuation claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

MU: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $884.74 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-03.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$326.50−63% vs close
Base
$1,952.50+121% vs close
Bull
$2,110.70+139% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $1,015.34 (+14.8% vs close)

Peers: the 27 Liquid 100 names in Information Technology that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The 27 names

AAPL, AMD, APH, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, GEN, GLW, HPE, HPQ, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MRVL, MSFT, NOW, NVDA, ON, ORCL, PLTR, QCOM, SMCI, SNDK, WDC.

Multiples against the peer group

Information Technology · 27 companies in the group

Sector median includes AVGO, whose per-share figure failed the share-basis check in this research.

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)11.90×

    Peer median 32.93× · middle half 20.61× to 49.15× · 12th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales7.56×

    Peer median 6.59× · middle half 4.55× to 12.88× · 56th percentile of the group

  • Price to book7.28×

    Peer median 8.35× · middle half 6.41× to 15.99× · 36th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield5.86%

    Peer median 2.54% · middle half 1.33% to 4.83% · 83rd percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 9 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Micron Technology (MU) research | Sagehood