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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
NCLH

NCLH Research brief

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$17.57(−3.57%)

Sagehood’s view on NCLH

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

44Bearish50 is balancedScore change −3 since 2026-10-29, from 47 to 44; view changed from Neutral to Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 49 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30

Dated research brief

WhyThe bearish view is driven by a stretched balance sheet, since free cash flow is −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA is 5.38. The unresolved risk is the 13.83% earnings reaction, which shows the market repricing guidance higher.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the bearish view is the sharp positive earnings reaction. A tier-1 earnings item dated 2026-10-29 drew 13.83% excess return, and price rose 16.36% over five days, so the market has already repriced the guidance higher.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would keep the leverage claim intact rather than break it.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

No fair-value range was computed for this run: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Against peers

Consumer Discretionary
MultipleNCLHGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)9.65×19.43×0th
P/S0.81×1.45×11th
P/B2.60×5.20×12th
FCF yield−6.89%3.64%0th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$17.57 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−3.57%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run47 on 2026-10-29 → 44 on 2026-10-30 (−3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Discretionary: AMZN, CCL, CMG, CVNA, F, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $17.57

−16.3% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

NCLH adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. NCLH adjusted close. Continuous series. $17.57 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3044Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2947Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2842Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2740Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2640Bearish65Method 4
2026-10-2338Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2238Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-2143Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-1638Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0940Bearish58Method 4
2026-10-0738Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-0242Bearish54Method 4
2026-10-0140Bearish58Method 4
2026-09-3037Bearish62Method 4
2026-09-2937Bearish62Method 4
2026-09-2837Bearish75Method 4
2026-09-2537Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective34Bearish68Method 4
2026-09-2337Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-1839Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective36Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective35Bearish64Method 4
2026-09-0440Bearish65Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective36Bearish75Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective40Bearish70Method 3
2026-08-2842Bearish70Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective43Bearish70Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective44Bearish70Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective44Bearish70Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective45Neutral70Method 3
2026-08-1445Neutral71Method 2
2026-08-1345Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0744Bearish71Method 1
2026-08-0644Bearish71Method 1
2026-08-0445Neutral68Method 1
2026-07-3142Bearish65Method 1
2026-07-2344Bearish48Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

NCLH research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Norwegian's revenue growth of 4.9% is in line with the sector, but −$564 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow and 5.38 net debt to EBITDA against a 0.93 sector median leave the balance sheet stretched.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $10,163 million with 4.9% growth to 2026-09-30, near the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA was 5.38 against the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median.

Why it matters now

Operating cash flow of $2,165 million is being outspent by capital needs, leaving trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA at 5.38 versus the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, so the balance sheet carries the strain.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected in these facts, and negative free cash flow of −$564 million with 5.7% share growth leaves the funding path for the fleet unobserved. Falsifier: A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would keep the leverage claim intact rather than break it.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
30
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
5.61
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $10,163 million with 4.9% growth to 2026-09-30, near the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA was 5.38 against the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median.
Mechanism
Operating cash flow of $2,165 million is being outspent by capital needs, leaving trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA at 5.38 versus the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, so the balance sheet carries the strain.
Countercase
The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected in these facts, and negative free cash flow of −$564 million with 5.7% share growth leaves the funding path for the fleet unobserved.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
5.61

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
2.71

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
5.73

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.70

News specialist

Bullish

Score
68
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
10.76

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.21
Weighted contribution
9.87

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.93

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.93

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

NCLH: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

44

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 30Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $10,163 million with 4.9% growth to 2026-09-30, near the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA was 5.38 against the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median.

Why it matters

Operating cash flow of $2,165 million is being outspent by capital needs, leaving trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA at 5.38 versus the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, so the balance sheet carries the strain.

What argues against it

The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-29 is not yet reflected in these facts, and negative free cash flow of −$564 million with 5.7% share growth leaves the funding path for the fleet unobserved.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would keep the leverage claim intact rather than break it.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 46.25. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −2.25. 47 on 2026-10-29 → 44 on 2026-10-30 (−3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Risk specialist

    NCLH shows twenty-day annualized volatility of 59.4 against sixty-day annualized volatility of 45.4, drawdown from the one-year high of −29.8 versus maximum one-year drawdown of −43.6, one-year large daily-move count of 50, downside beta of 1.76 against SPY beta of 2.0, and worst five-day return over one year of −19.1.

  3. News specialist

    A tier-1 Wall Street Journal earnings item dated 2026-10-29 carries tone 2 with one-day return relative to SPY 13.83 percentage points, and a tier-2 Associated Press earnings item on the same date carries tone 0 with the same 13.83 reaction.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would keep the leverage claim intact rather than break it.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

NCLH: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $10,163 million with 4.9% growth to 2026-09-30, near the 5.0% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$564 million and net debt to EBITDA was 5.38 against the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median.

Valuation model

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$564 million on $10163 million of revenue, so no DCF grid is available, while the comps median of $35.13 implies +99.9% upside and the own price-to-book of 2.6 sits at the 12th percentile.

Potential upside

  • No DCF grid is available because the FCF path is negative, so the read rests on the comps median of $35.13, which implies +99.9% upside, against a 2.6 price-to-book and a 9.65 P/E at the 0th percentile.

Potential downside

  • Norwegian's revenue growth of 4.9% is in line with the sector, but −$564 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow and 5.38 net debt to EBITDA against a 0.93 sector median leave the balance sheet stretched.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing net debt to EBITDA above the 0.93 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median would keep the leverage claim intact rather than break it.

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow still negative while the price-to-book stays at 2.6 would leave the equity value without a cash-flow anchor.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $17.57 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

No fair-value range this session: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $35.13 (+99.9% vs close)

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Discretionary that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: AMZN, CCL, CMG, CVNA, F, NKE, SBUX, TSCO, TSLA.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Discretionary · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)9.65×

    Peer median 19.43× · middle half 18.09× to 44.69× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales0.81×

    Peer median 1.45× · middle half 1.14× to 3.27× · 11th percentile of the group

  • Price to book2.60×

    Peer median 5.20× · middle half 3.54× to 9.07× · 12th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield−6.89%

    Peer median 3.64% · middle half 1.71% to 4.17% · 0th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 11 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) research | Sagehood