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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

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NFLX

NFLX Research brief

Netflix

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$62.08(+0.05%)

Sagehood’s view on NFLX

Netflix · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

38Bearish50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 38; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 60 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe bearish view is driven by a persistent downtrend, since price is 7.43% lower over 20 days and the 1-year channel sits at trend-channel position −1.25 standard deviations. The unresolved risk is the 31.3% operating margin and $11,375 million of free cash flow.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the bearish view is the profitability and cash generation. Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 31.3% against a 26.1% sector median and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is $11,375 million, so the business still funds itself while the price falls.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median would break the profitability claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$22.10
Base
$55.20
Bull
$100.10

Base case −11% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-30. Peer-implied median $23.26 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Communication Services
MultipleNFLXGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)17.94×14.53×71st
P/S5.37×2.01×57th
P/B9.11×1.79×100th
FCF yield4.26%3%67th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$62.08 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+0.05%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run38 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set8 names in Communication Services: CMCSA, DIS, GOOG, GOOGL, META, SKYD, T, VZ. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $62.08

−12.4% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

NFLX adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. NFLX adjusted close. Continuous series. $62.08 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3038Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-2938Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2840Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2733Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2636Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-2338Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2238Bearish58Method 4
2026-10-2138Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-1644Bearish52Method 4
2026-10-0941Bearish60Method 4
2026-10-0736Bearish58Method 4
2026-10-0238Bearish62Method 4
2026-10-0138Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-3041Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-2941Bearish70Method 4
2026-09-2841Bearish75Method 4
2026-09-2538Bearish62Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective38Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-2338Bearish68Method 4
2026-09-1842Bearish65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective45Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective42Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-0444Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective47Neutral60Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective44Bearish70Method 3
2026-08-2844Bearish70Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective45Neutral70Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective48Neutral70Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective48Neutral70Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective47Neutral70Method 3
2026-08-1446Neutral70Method 2
2026-08-1348Neutral70Method 1
2026-08-0748Neutral70Method 1
2026-08-0647Neutral70Method 1
2026-08-0442Bearish60Method 1
2026-07-3144Bearish64Method 1
2026-07-2342Bearish58Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

NFLX research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Netflix pairs a 31.3% operating margin and $11,375 million of free cash flow with 14.7% revenue growth, but four straight quarters of deceleration temper the trajectory.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $49,735 million with 14.7% growth to 2026-09-30, above the 9.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 31.3% against the 26.1% sector operating-margin median and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $11,375 million.

Why it matters now

A 31.3% operating margin and $11,375 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow with 0.77 conversion support earnings quality, but quarterly revenue growth has slowed from 17.6% to 11.8%, so the expansion is decelerating.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-21 is not yet reflected in these facts, and revenue growth has decelerated for four straight quarters, so the margin expansion may not persist. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median would break the profitability claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.16
Weighted contribution
9.47
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $49,735 million with 14.7% growth to 2026-09-30, above the 9.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 31.3% against the 26.1% sector operating-margin median and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $11,375 million.
Mechanism
A 31.3% operating margin and $11,375 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow with 0.77 conversion support earnings quality, but quarterly revenue growth has slowed from 17.6% to 11.8%, so the expansion is decelerating.
Countercase
The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-21 is not yet reflected in these facts, and revenue growth has decelerated for four straight quarters, so the margin expansion may not persist.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
9.47

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
2.37

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
34
Evidence confidence
74
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
4.51

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.48

News specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.97

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
28
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.23
Weighted contribution
6.53

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
7.10

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.30

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

NFLX: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

38

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 58Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $49,735 million with 14.7% growth to 2026-09-30, above the 9.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 31.3% against the 26.1% sector operating-margin median and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $11,375 million.

Why it matters

A 31.3% operating margin and $11,375 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow with 0.77 conversion support earnings quality, but quarterly revenue growth has slowed from 17.6% to 11.8%, so the expansion is decelerating.

What argues against it

The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-21 is not yet reflected in these facts, and revenue growth has decelerated for four straight quarters, so the margin expansion may not persist.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median would break the profitability claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 40.74. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −2.74. 38 on 2026-10-29 → 38 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    NFLX closed at 62.08 on 2026-10-30, down 7.43% over 20 days and 15.76% over 60 days, with the 1-year channel at trend-channel position −1.25 standard deviations and the 90-day at −1.84.

  3. News specialist

    A tier-1 Barrons.com earnings item dated 2026-10-30 carries tone −1 with one-day return relative to SPY 1.82 percentage points, while a tier-2 Yahoo Finance earnings item dated 2026-10-27 carries tone 0 with one-day return relative to SPY −2.72 percentage points and three-session return after the news −2.9%.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM operating margin below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median would break the profitability claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

NFLX: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $49,735 million with 14.7% growth to 2026-09-30, above the 9.6% sector revenue-growth median, while trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 31.3% against the 26.1% sector operating-margin median and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $11,375 million.

Valuation model

The base case pairs 11.6% revenue growth with a 22.9% FCF margin for a $55.2 fair value, 11% below the $62.08 close, while the comps median of $23.26 implies −62.5% downside and the own price-to-book of 9.11 sits at the 100th percentile.

Potential upside

  • Netflix pairs a 31.3% operating margin and $11,375 million of free cash flow with 14.7% revenue growth, but four straight quarters of deceleration temper the trajectory.

Potential downside

  • Base fair value of $55.2 sits 11% below the $62.08 close, and the comps median of $23.26 implies −62.5% downside, so both methods read rich. Revenue growth of 12.6% over three years and a 31.3% EBIT margin anchor the quality.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 26.1% sector operating-margin median would break the profitability claim.

  • A later reading showing the FCF margin holding at 22.9% while revenue growth stays at the 11.6% base row would keep the DCF below the close and break the neutral comps read.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $62.08 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$22.10−64% vs close
Base
$55.20−11% vs close
Bull
$100.10+61% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $23.26 (−62.5% vs close)

Peers: the 8 Liquid 100 names in Communication Services that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: CMCSA, DIS, GOOG, GOOGL, META, SKYD, T, VZ.

Multiples against the peer group

Communication Services · 8 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)17.94×

    Peer median 14.53× · middle half 11.46× to 17.80× · 71st percentile of the group

  • Price to sales5.37×

    Peer median 2.01× · middle half 1.26× to 6.88× · 57th percentile of the group

  • Price to book9.11×

    Peer median 1.79× · middle half 1.15× to 5.04× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield4.26%

    Peer median 3% · middle half 0.89% to 9.92% · 67th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 7 valuation inputs required conservative handling: no full-year gross-profit line was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Netflix (NFLX) research | Sagehood