Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Radar
O logo unavailable

O Research brief

Realty Income

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$56.93(−0.47%)

Sagehood’s view on O

Realty Income · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

50Neutral50 is balancedScore change +7 since 2026-10-29, from 43 to 50; view changed from Bearish to Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 45 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe neutral view is driven by thin profitability against a calm tape, since revenue grew 10.9% but return on equity is only 3.2%. The unresolved risk is the EPS-model base value of $12.6, far below the $56.93 close.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is the valuation gap between the two methods. The EPS-model base value of $12.6 sits 78% below the $56.93 close, while the peer-implied median of $23.26 contradicts the grid, so the anchor is unresolved.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · exit earnings multiple

Bear
$10.50
Base
$12.60
Bull
$47.40

Base case −78% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Peer-implied median $23.26 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

The market price implies more growth or higher margins than this model assumes, so its base case sits far below the close. The valuation specialist weighs that gap; it is not a forecast that the price will fall.

Against peers

Real Estate
MultipleOGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)41.55×16.98×100th
P/S8.79×2.80×100th
P/B1.35×1.57×33rd
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$56.93 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.47%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run43 on 2026-10-29 → 50 on 2026-10-30 (+7 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set3 names in Real Estate: HST, VICI, WY. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $56.93

−6.6% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

O adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. O adjusted close. Continuous series. $56.93 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-10-09 to 2026-10-30 · 10 publications

Each point is a verified published score.

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3050Neutral45Current method
2026-10-2943Bearish49Current method
2026-10-2843Bearish49Current method
2026-10-2740Bearish45Current method
2026-10-2644Bearish50Current method
2026-10-2350Neutral30Current method
2026-10-2245Neutral50Current method
2026-10-2150Neutral45Current method
2026-10-1645Neutral50Current method
2026-10-0936Bearish42Current method

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

O research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Realty Income is growing revenue at 10.9% year over year, above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, but return on equity is only 3.2% and free cash flow conversion is not available. The business is expanding but profitability remains thin.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,055 million grew 10.9% year over year, above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, with quarterly growth stable between 9.7% and 12.2%, but return on equity is only 3.2%.

Why it matters now

Revenue growth above the sector median combined with a low return on equity implies the company is growing but not yet translating that growth into strong shareholder returns, which limits the quality of the expansion.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth decelerating below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median or if return on equity falls below 3.2%, since both would signal the growth and profitability is deteriorating. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
44
Evidence confidence
40
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
5.20
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.13
Weighted contribution
5.65
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,055 million grew 10.9% year over year, above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, with quarterly growth stable between 9.7% and 12.2%, but return on equity is only 3.2%.
Mechanism
Revenue growth above the sector median combined with a low return on equity implies the company is growing but not yet translating that growth into strong shareholder returns, which limits the quality of the expansion.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth decelerating below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median or if return on equity falls below 3.2%, since both would signal the growth and profitability is deteriorating.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
40
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
5.65

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
4.78

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
4.89

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
2.04

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.11

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.27
Weighted contribution
13.58

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
25
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
2.96

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.52

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

O: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

50

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 44Evidence confidence 40
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,055 million grew 10.9% year over year, above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, with quarterly growth stable between 9.7% and 12.2%, but return on equity is only 3.2%.

Why it matters

Revenue growth above the sector median combined with a low return on equity implies the company is growing but not yet translating that growth into strong shareholder returns, which limits the quality of the expansion.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth decelerating below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median or if return on equity falls below 3.2%, since both would signal the growth and profitability is deteriorating.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 46.53. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +3.47. 43 on 2026-10-29 → 50 on 2026-10-30 (+7 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Risk specialist

    O shows twenty-day annualized volatility 19.0% against sixty-day annualized volatility 15.7% with volatility trend rising, drawdown from the one-year high −13.1% versus maximum one-year drawdown −18.5%, one-year large daily-move count 0, and days to earnings 3.

  3. News specialist

    Realty Income's material flow is neutral: material-news net tone is 0.02 with 48 material items, and the top capital item on 2026-10-29 reacted +2.11% excess while the guidance item on 2026-10-30 reacted +1.3% excess.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth at or below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the growth claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

O: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $56.93 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by exit earnings multiple, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$10.50−82% vs close
Base
$12.60−78% vs close
Bull
$47.40−17% vs close

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $23.26 (−59.1% vs close)

Peers: the 3 Liquid 100 names in Real Estate that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: HST, VICI, WY.

Multiples against the peer group

Real Estate · 3 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)41.55×

    Peer median 16.98× · middle half 14.15× to 24.64× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales8.79×

    Peer median 2.80× · middle half 2.45× to 4.54× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.35×

    Peer median 1.57× · middle half 1.24× to 2.15× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield7.52%

    Peer median 5.44% · middle half 4.34% to 6.54% · 50th percentile of the group

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 12 valuation inputs required conservative handling: the filing date could not be independently verified; another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete; the measured beta of 0.12 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Realty Income (O) research | Sagehood