Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Radar
ON

ON Research brief

ON Semiconductor

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$71.67(−4.74%)

Sagehood’s view on ON

ON Semiconductor · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

42Bearish50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 42; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe bearish view is driven by a deep drawdown meeting soft guidance, since the 2026-10-28 item reacted −4.21% excess and the drawdown is −46.5%. The unresolved risk is the quarterly recovery, with growth accelerating to 9.2%.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the bearish view is the accelerating quarterly recovery. Quarterly revenue growth accelerated from −12.0% to 9.2% and operating margin expanded 3.4 percentage points, so the downturn may be turning.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value · the discounted cash flow model declined

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the model’s cash-flow estimate ($29.10) and the peer-multiple estimate ($111.34) were 3.8 times apart. The peer-multiple estimate rests on medians that include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”.

Close $71.67 (recorded) on 2026-10-30; estimates use fundamentals to 2026-07-03.

Rejected model output (not a valuation)
Bear
$25.00
Base
$29.10
Bull
$39.90

The model’s own grid cells, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Against peers

Information Technology
MultipleONGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)46.84×29.89×73rd
P/S4.56×7.08×26th
P/B3.91×8.35×12th
FCF yield5.31%2.54%74th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$71.67 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−4.74%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage7 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 3 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 7 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run42 on 2026-10-29 → 42 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set27 names in Information Technology, listed with how they were chosen under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $71.67

−39.6% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

ON adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. ON adjusted close. Continuous series. $71.67 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3042Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2942Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2842Bearish49Method 4
2026-10-2745Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2638Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2342Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2244Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2148Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-1638Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0938Bearish40Method 4
2026-10-0746Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-0248Neutral52Method 4
2026-10-0146Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-3045Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2945Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2843Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-2544Bearish52Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective44Bearish52Method 4
2026-09-2342Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-1842Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective35Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective38Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-0444Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective40Bearish65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective49Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-2849Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective49Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective49Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective49Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective50Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1450Neutral60Method 2
2026-08-1348Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0753Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0652Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0453Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-3144Bearish61Method 1
2026-07-2349Neutral52Method 1

Specialists

7 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

3 unavailable

ON research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

ON Semiconductor is recovering: quarterly revenue growth accelerated from −12.0% to 9.2% and operating margin expanded 3.4 percentage points, though trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,198 million still fell 3.1% year over year versus the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,198 million fell 3.1% year over year against the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, but quarterly growth accelerated from −12.0% to 9.2% and operating margin expanded 3.4 percentage points.

Why it matters now

Accelerating quarterly revenue growth and expanding operating margins imply the business is recovering from a downturn, which supports earnings and cash generation if the trend continues.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth decelerating below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median or if free cash flow conversion falls below 1.01, since both would signal the recovery is stalling rather than strengthening. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
7.80
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
9.54
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,198 million fell 3.1% year over year against the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, but quarterly growth accelerated from −12.0% to 9.2% and operating margin expanded 3.4 percentage points.
Mechanism
Accelerating quarterly revenue growth and expanding operating margins imply the business is recovering from a downturn, which supports earnings and cash generation if the trend continues.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth decelerating below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median or if free cash flow conversion falls below 1.01, since both would signal the recovery is stalling rather than strengthening.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
9.54

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
3.23

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
32
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
4.31

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
2.02

News specialist

Bearish

Score
40
Evidence confidence
52
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
5.60

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.27
Weighted contribution
12.11

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
5.87

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Valuation specialist, Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Valuation specialist: The valuation specialist did not vote on this run because the valuation model declined to give a fair value: the model’s cash-flow estimate ($29.10) and the peer-multiple estimate ($111.34) were 3.8 times apart. The peer-multiple estimate rests on medians that include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”.
  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

ON: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

42

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 50Evidence confidence 60
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,198 million fell 3.1% year over year against the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median, but quarterly growth accelerated from −12.0% to 9.2% and operating margin expanded 3.4 percentage points.

Why it matters

Accelerating quarterly revenue growth and expanding operating margins imply the business is recovering from a downturn, which supports earnings and cash generation if the trend continues.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the next filing shows revenue growth decelerating below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median or if free cash flow conversion falls below 1.01, since both would signal the recovery is stalling rather than strengthening.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 42.68. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.68. 42 on 2026-10-29 → 42 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. News specialist

    ON Semiconductor's guidance item on 2026-10-28 reacted −4.21% excess and −8.9% over three days, with material-news net tone at −0.16 and bad-news days followed by underperformance 2 against good-news days followed by outperformance 1.

  3. Risk specialist

    ON shows twenty-day annualized volatility 47.9% against sixty-day annualized volatility 51.7% with volatility trend stable, drawdown from the one-year high −46.5% versus maximum one-year drawdown −50.3%, one-year large daily-move count 62, and days to earnings 3.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth at or below the 23.1% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

ON: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation: the model declined to give a fair value

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $71.67 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-07-03.

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the model’s cash-flow estimate ($29.10) and the peer-multiple estimate ($111.34) were 3.8 times apart.

Rejected model output (not a valuation)

The discounted cash flow grid cells this run nominated, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Bear
$25.00−65% vs close
Base
$29.10−59% vs close
Bull
$39.90−44% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $111.34 (+55.4% vs close)

Peers: the 27 Liquid 100 names in Information Technology that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The 27 names

AAPL, AMD, APH, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, GEN, GLW, HPE, HPQ, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NOW, NVDA, ORCL, PLTR, QCOM, SMCI, SNDK, WDC.

Multiples against the peer group

Information Technology · 27 companies in the group

Sector median includes AVGO, whose per-share figure failed the share-basis check in this research.

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)46.84×

    Peer median 29.89× · middle half 19.24× to 47.84× · 73rd percentile of the group

  • Price to sales4.56×

    Peer median 7.08× · middle half 5.00× to 12.88× · 26th percentile of the group

  • Price to book3.91×

    Peer median 8.35× · middle half 6.43× to 15.99× · 12th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield5.31%

    Peer median 2.54% · middle half 1.33% to 4.96% · 74th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 4 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

ON Semiconductor (ON) research | Sagehood