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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Sagehood30
OXY

OXY Research brief

Occidental Petroleum

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$64.00(+1.57%)

Sagehood’s view on OXY

Occidental Petroleum · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

52Neutral50 is balancedScore change −3 since 2026-10-29, from 55 to 52; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 70 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

In Sagehood30 · book 2026-10-30

Dated research brief

WhyOXY looks neutral because cash generation is solid but the price already sits near fair value. The unresolved risk is that energy-sector leadership pulls the shares higher despite the modest 5% base-case gap.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is that energy leadership could pull OXY up with it. XLE sits 19.8 percentage points above SPY over 63 days with all 8 peers above their 50-day line, and OXY's 1-year channel slope of 55.6% per year with fit R² 0.68 shows an intact uptrend.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $4,793 million is positive.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$53.60
Base
$66.90
Bull
$141.00

Base case +5% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Peer-implied median $100.33 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Energy
MultipleOXYGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)9.89×18.05×0th
P/S2.78×2.23×67th
P/B1.54×2.42×33rd
FCF yield7.44%5.69%67th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$64.00 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+1.57%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run55 on 2026-10-29 → 52 on 2026-10-30 (−3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set6 names in Energy: CVX, DVN, EQT, HAL, KMI, SLB. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $64.00

+25.5% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

OXY adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. OXY adjusted close. Continuous series. $64.00 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3052Neutral70Method 4
2026-10-2955Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2856Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2760Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2658Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2359Neutral65Method 4
2026-10-2260Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-2160Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-1662Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-0954Neutral48Method 4
2026-10-0757Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-0252Neutral66Method 4
2026-10-0157Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-3053Neutral52Method 4
2026-09-2953Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2853Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2555Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective54Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-2354Neutral58Method 4
2026-09-1854Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective50Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective54Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-0455Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective53Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-2853Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective51Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective53Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective54Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1461Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1357Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0756Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0657Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0458Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3155Neutral70Method 1
2026-07-2364Neutral58Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

OXY research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Occidental converts revenue into cash: $4,793 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow on $23,215 million of revenue, with 15.2% growth above the 13.4% sector revenue-growth median. The balance-sheet read is limited because interest coverage is not available.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $23,215 million with 15.2% growth against the 13.4% sector revenue-growth median, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $4,793 million on $10,976 million of operating cash flow, with the facts' period ending 2026-06-30.

Why it matters now

Positive operating cash flow of $10,976 million and $4,793 million of free cash flow support the cash-generation claim, while the missing operating-margin and interest-coverage comparisons leave the balance-sheet read unconfirmed.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-Q filed on 2026-08-05 is not yet reflected in these facts, and the operating-margin and interest-coverage comparisons are not available, so the balance-sheet read rests on debt principal alone. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $4,793 million is positive.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
50
Evidence confidence
75
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.75
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.18
Weighted contribution
9.02
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $23,215 million with 15.2% growth against the 13.4% sector revenue-growth median, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $4,793 million on $10,976 million of operating cash flow, with the facts' period ending 2026-06-30.
Mechanism
Positive operating cash flow of $10,976 million and $4,793 million of free cash flow support the cash-generation claim, while the missing operating-margin and interest-coverage comparisons leave the balance-sheet read unconfirmed.
Countercase
The 10-Q filed on 2026-08-05 is not yet reflected in these facts, and the operating-margin and interest-coverage comparisons are not available, so the balance-sheet read rests on debt principal alone.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
75
Weight in the score
0.18
Weighted contribution
9.02

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.23

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.48

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.72

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.58

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.26
Weighted contribution
15.02

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
8.46

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.00

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

OXY: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

52

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 50Evidence confidence 75
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $23,215 million with 15.2% growth against the 13.4% sector revenue-growth median, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $4,793 million on $10,976 million of operating cash flow, with the facts' period ending 2026-06-30.

Why it matters

Positive operating cash flow of $10,976 million and $4,793 million of free cash flow support the cash-generation claim, while the missing operating-margin and interest-coverage comparisons leave the balance-sheet read unconfirmed.

What argues against it

The 10-Q filed on 2026-08-05 is not yet reflected in these facts, and the operating-margin and interest-coverage comparisons are not available, so the balance-sheet read rests on debt principal alone.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $4,793 million is positive.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 51.51. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.49. 55 on 2026-10-29 → 52 on 2026-10-30 (−3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    OXY closed at $64.00 on 2026-10-30, 2.8% below the $65.81 resistance (2 touches) and 0.6% above the $63.61 support (2 touches); the 1-year channel slope is 55.6% per year with fit R² 0.68 and trend-channel position −0.14 standard deviations, while the 5-year channel slope is 0.1% per year with fit R² 0.0.

  3. Valuation specialist

    The base case pairs −5% revenue growth with a 20.6% FCF margin for a $66.9 fair value, 5% above the $64.0 close, while the bear case at a 16.6% margin gives $53.6, 16% below.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $4,793 million is positive.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

OXY: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $64.00 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$53.60−16% vs close
Base
$66.90+5% vs close
Bull
$141.00+120% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $100.33 (+56.8% vs close)

Peers: the 6 Liquid 100 names in Energy that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: CVX, DVN, EQT, HAL, KMI, SLB.

Multiples against the peer group

Energy · 6 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)9.89×

    Peer median 18.05× · middle half 13.64× to 22.23× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales2.78×

    Peer median 2.23× · middle half 1.78× to 3.36× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.54×

    Peer median 2.42× · middle half 1.62× to 2.66× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield7.44%

    Peer median 5.69% · middle half 5.35% to 9.63% · 67th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 13 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete; the measured beta of 0.01 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) research | Sagehood