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PCG

PCG Research brief

PG&E Corporation

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$13.18(−0.38%)

Sagehood’s view on PCG

PG&E Corporation · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

42Bearish50 is balancedScore change +2 since 2026-10-29, from 40 to 42; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 70 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyPCG looks bearish because cash generation is negative and the downtrend is steep. The unresolved risk is that a 0.89 price-to-book and a $23.5 peer-implied median mark the shares as deeply undervalued.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case for the company is that book value and peer multiples point far higher. Price-to-book of 0.89 sits at the 0th percentile and the $23.5 peer-implied median is 78.3% above the $13.18 close, while volatility is falling from 55.0% to 22.7%.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow above the threshold of 0 would break the cash-drain claim, since the current figure is negative $4,263 million.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

A newer 10-Q (filed 2026-10-22) is on record; some figures here may predate it.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

No fair-value range was computed for this run: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Against peers

Utilities
MultiplePCGGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)9.48×16.91×33rd
P/S1.16×1.91×33rd
P/B0.89×2.15×0th
FCF yield−14.18%−10.39%50th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$13.18 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.38%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run40 on 2026-10-29 → 42 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set3 names in Utilities: AES, EXC, NEE. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $13.18

−22.3% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

PCG adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. PCG adjusted close. Continuous series. $13.18 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3042Bearish70Method 4
2026-10-2940Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-2848Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2735Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-2636Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2340Bearish62Method 4
2026-10-2238Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2138Bearish40Method 4
2026-10-1636Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0948Neutral30Method 4
2026-10-0738Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0236Bearish62Method 4
2026-10-0135Bearish56Method 4
2026-09-3033Bearish68Method 4
2026-09-2933Bearish70Method 4
2026-09-2833Bearish75Method 4
2026-09-2534Bearish62Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective33Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-2335Bearish62Method 4
2026-09-1836Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective32Bearish40Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective37Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-0440Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective44Bearish50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective49Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-2851Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective53Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective55Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective54Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective53Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-1453Neutral71Method 2
2026-08-1351Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0752Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0651Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0451Neutral71Method 1
2026-07-3147Neutral66Method 1
2026-07-2348Neutral50Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

PCG research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

PG&E's cash generation is negative: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of negative $4,263 million on $8,147 million of operating cash flow, with capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue. Net debt to operating income of 11.98 exceeds the 9.16 sector median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative $4,263 million on $8,147 million of operating cash flow, with capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue, and the facts' period ends 2026-06-30 while the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected.

Why it matters now

Heavy capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue turns $8,147 million of operating cash flow into negative $4,263 million of free cash flow, and net debt to operating income of 11.98 sits above the 9.16 sector net-debt-to-operating-income median.

What could change the view

Countercase: The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected in these facts, and interest coverage is not available, so the debt-service burden cannot be sized from the supplied figures. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow above the threshold of 0 would break the cash-drain claim, since the current figure is negative $4,263 million.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
38
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
7.37
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative $4,263 million on $8,147 million of operating cash flow, with capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue, and the facts' period ends 2026-06-30 while the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected.
Mechanism
Heavy capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue turns $8,147 million of operating cash flow into negative $4,263 million of free cash flow, and net debt to operating income of 11.98 sits above the 9.16 sector net-debt-to-operating-income median.
Countercase
The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected in these facts, and interest coverage is not available, so the debt-service burden cannot be sized from the supplied figures.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
7.37

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
3.57

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
33
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
3.17

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.92

News specialist

Neutral

Score
45
Evidence confidence
50
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
5.28

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.26
Weighted contribution
9.72

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.12

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.63

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

PCG: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

42

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 38Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative $4,263 million on $8,147 million of operating cash flow, with capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue, and the facts' period ends 2026-06-30 while the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected.

Why it matters

Heavy capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue turns $8,147 million of operating cash flow into negative $4,263 million of free cash flow, and net debt to operating income of 11.98 sits above the 9.16 sector net-debt-to-operating-income median.

What argues against it

The 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected in these facts, and interest coverage is not available, so the debt-service burden cannot be sized from the supplied figures.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow above the threshold of 0 would break the cash-drain claim, since the current figure is negative $4,263 million.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 41.77. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.23. 40 on 2026-10-29 → 42 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    PCG closed at $13.18 on 2026-10-30, 0.7% below the $13.28 resistance (3 touches) and 3.0% above the $12.78 support (2 touches); the 1-year channel slope is −12.6% per year with fit R² 0.13 and trend-channel position −1.21 standard deviations, while the 90-day channel slope is −70.2% per year with fit R² 0.72.

  3. Risk specialist

    PCG shows drawdown from the one-year high −30.3% against maximum one-year drawdown −37.1%, twenty-day annualized volatility 22.7% versus sixty-day annualized volatility 55.0% with volatility trend falling, worst five-day return over one year −26.8%, and one-year large daily-move count 11.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free cash flow above the threshold of 0 would break the cash-drain claim, since the current figure is negative $4,263 million.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

PCG: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative $4,263 million on $8,147 million of operating cash flow, with capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue, and the facts' period ends 2026-06-30 while the 10-Q filed on 2026-10-22 is not yet reflected.

Valuation model

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$4,263 million on revenue of $25,837 million, a −16.5% FCF margin, and the price-to-book of 0.89 sits at the 0th percentile of the Utilities peer set.

Potential upside

  • No DCF grid is available because the free-cash-flow path is negative, so the read rests on the $23.5 peer-implied median (78.3% upside) against a $13.18 close and a 0.89 price-to-book at the 0th percentile.

Potential downside

  • PG&E's cash generation is negative: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of negative $4,263 million on $8,147 million of operating cash flow, with capital expenditure at 48.0% of revenue. Net debt to operating income of 11.98 exceeds the 9.16 sector median.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow above the threshold of 0 would break the cash-drain claim, since the current figure is negative $4,263 million.

  • A later filing showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow still below the −$4,263 million level would keep the DCF grid absent and leave the peer-implied median of $23.5 as the only anchor.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $13.18 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30 · a newer 10-Q (filed 2026-10-22) is on record; some figures here may predate it.

No fair-value range this session: the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $23.50 (+78.3% vs close)

Peers: the 3 Liquid 100 names in Utilities that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: AES, EXC, NEE.

Multiples against the peer group

Utilities · 3 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)9.48×

    Peer median 16.91× · middle half 11.29× to 19.08× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.16×

    Peer median 1.91× · middle half 1.36× to 4.33× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Price to book0.89×

    Peer median 2.15× · middle half 1.89× to 2.66× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield−14.18%

    Peer median −10.39% · middle half −13.31% to −7.48% · 50th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 12 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; the measured beta of 0.22 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead; the cash-flow valuation grid was unavailable because forecast free cash flow was negative.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

PG&E Corporation (PCG) research | Sagehood