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PEP

PEP Research brief

PepsiCo

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$137.34(+2.65%)

Sagehood’s view on PEP

PepsiCo · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

52Neutral50 is balancedScore change +4 since 2026-10-29, from 48 to 52; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 65 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyPEP looks neutral because cash generation is strong but the shares lag a leading staples sector. The unresolved risk is that a 15.3% operating margin and 2.16x net debt to EBITDA leave little cushion.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is that the margin gap and leverage leave little cushion.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $10,471 million is positive.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$53.80
Base
$149.90
Bull
$310.60

Base case +9% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-05. Peer-implied median $174.13 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Consumer Staples
MultiplePEPGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)17.28×27.75×14th
P/S1.92×2.43×33rd
P/B8.45×5.34×62nd
FCF yield5.56%4.03%56th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$137.34 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+2.65%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run48 on 2026-10-29 → 52 on 2026-10-30 (+4 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Staples: GIS, KDP, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PG, WMT. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $137.34

−0.5% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

PEP adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. PEP adjusted close. Continuous series. $137.34 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 36 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3052Neutral65Method 4
2026-10-2948Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2850Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2747Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2649Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2351Neutral65Method 4
2026-10-2252Neutral58Method 4
2026-10-2152Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-1652Neutral60Method 4
2026-10-0948Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0744Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0240Bearish65Method 4
2026-10-0141Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-3043Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-2944Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-2843Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-2544Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective45Neutral52Method 4
2026-09-2345Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1845Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-0448Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective48Neutral55Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective44Bearish73Method 3
2026-08-2846Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective45Neutral70Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective49Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective48Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective47Neutral73Method 3
2026-08-1452Neutral70Method 2
2026-08-1355Neutral70Method 1
2026-08-0754Neutral70Method 1
2026-08-0653Neutral70Method 1
2026-08-0454Neutral70Method 1
2026-07-3154Neutral75Method 1
2026-07-2352Neutral50Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

PEP research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

PepsiCo generates $10,471 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow on $98,241 million of revenue, with 6.4% growth above the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median. Operating margin of 15.3% trails the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $98,241 million with 6.4% growth against the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $10,471 million on $14,569 million of operating cash flow, and net debt to EBITDA was 2.16.

Why it matters now

Free cash flow of $10,471 million on $14,569 million of operating cash flow funds the business while net debt to EBITDA of 2.16 stays above the 1.46 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, and operating margin of 15.3% sits below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

What could change the view

Countercase: The revenue tag lineage is incomplete and the operating-margin comparison is not independently verified, so the margin read rests on the reported trailing-twelve-month figure alone. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $10,471 million is positive.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
58
Evidence confidence
80
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
10.40
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
11.25
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $98,241 million with 6.4% growth against the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $10,471 million on $14,569 million of operating cash flow, and net debt to EBITDA was 2.16.
Mechanism
Free cash flow of $10,471 million on $14,569 million of operating cash flow funds the business while net debt to EBITDA of 2.16 stays above the 1.46 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, and operating margin of 15.3% sits below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.
Countercase
The revenue tag lineage is incomplete and the operating-margin comparison is not independently verified, so the margin read rests on the reported trailing-twelve-month figure alone.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
80
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
11.25

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
3.94

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
40
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
3.36

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
58
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.62

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
40
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
4.10

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.24
Weighted contribution
12.60

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
10.08

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
55
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.92

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

PEP: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

52

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 58Evidence confidence 80
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $98,241 million with 6.4% growth against the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $10,471 million on $14,569 million of operating cash flow, and net debt to EBITDA was 2.16.

Why it matters

Free cash flow of $10,471 million on $14,569 million of operating cash flow funds the business while net debt to EBITDA of 2.16 stays above the 1.46 sector net-debt-to-EBITDA median, and operating margin of 15.3% sits below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

What argues against it

The revenue tag lineage is incomplete and the operating-margin comparison is not independently verified, so the margin read rests on the reported trailing-twelve-month figure alone.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $10,471 million is positive.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 51.87. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.13. 48 on 2026-10-29 → 52 on 2026-10-30 (+4 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Valuation specialist

    The base case pairs 2.7% revenue growth with a 10.7% FCF margin for a $149.9 fair value, 9% above the $137.34 close, while the bear case at a 6.7% margin gives $53.8, 61% below.

  3. Price-trend specialist

    PEP closed at $137.34 on 2026-10-30, 0.9% above the $136.07 support (1 touch) and 4.0% below the $142.82 resistance (3 touches); the 1-year channel slope is −10.1% per year with fit R² 0.24 and trend-channel position 0.26 standard deviations, while the 90-day channel slope is −18.2% per year with fit R² 0.33.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free cash flow below the threshold of 0 would break the cash-generation claim, since the current $10,471 million is positive.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

PEP: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $137.34 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-05.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$53.80−61% vs close
Base
$149.90+9% vs close
Bull
$310.60+126% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $174.13 (+26.8% vs close)

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Staples that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: GIS, KDP, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PG, WMT.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Staples · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)17.28×

    Peer median 27.75× · middle half 23.13× to 40.02× · 14th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.92×

    Peer median 2.43× · middle half 1.36× to 5.55× · 33rd percentile of the group

  • Price to book8.45×

    Peer median 5.34× · middle half 2.35× to 10.01× · 62nd percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield5.56%

    Peer median 4.03% · middle half 3.52% to 6.95% · 56th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 5 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete; the measured beta of 0.10 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

PepsiCo (PEP) research | Sagehood