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Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

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PYPL

PYPL Research brief

PayPal

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$57.01(+0.11%)

Sagehood’s view on PYPL

PayPal · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

57Neutral50 is balancedScore change +2 since 2026-10-29, from 55 to 57; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 62 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyPYPL looks neutral because the earnings beat and cheap multiple are offset by decelerating growth. The unresolved risk is that the EPS-model base value of $181.9 sits 219% above the $57.01 close.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral view is that the modeled value sits far above the traded price.
Break conditionFrom the news specialist: A later close showing the 3.56% three-day excess return reversing to negative would break the confirmed-positive read.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · exit earnings multiple

Bear
$29.60
Base
$181.90
Bull
$330.10

Base case +219% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-09-30. Peer-implied median $65.87 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bull case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Against peers

Financials
MultiplePYPLGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)10.88×12.57×0th
P/S1.53×3.13×0th
P/B2.69×1.29×70th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the news specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$57.01 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+0.11%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run55 on 2026-10-29 → 57 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set10 names in Financials: BAC, C, COIN, HBAN, HOOD, KEY, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $57.01

+34.9% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

PYPL adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. PYPL adjusted close. Continuous series. $57.01 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3057Neutral62Method 4
2026-10-2955Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2854Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2753Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2650Neutral30Method 4
2026-10-2350Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-2248Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-2150Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-1650Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0951Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-0751Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-0249Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0150Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-3051Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-2950Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-2850Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-2551Neutral44Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective51Neutral48Method 4
2026-09-2351Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-1853Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective46Neutral48Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective48Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-0450Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective46Neutral50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective52Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-2853Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective56Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective56Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective56Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective55Neutral70Method 3
2026-08-1459Neutral70Method 2
2026-08-1358Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0758Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-0658Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-0455Neutral61Method 1
2026-07-3152Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-2349Neutral50Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

PYPL research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

PayPal's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $34,295 million grew 4.4%, below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly growth decelerated to 2.0%. Net margin slipped to 12.5% in the latest quarter from 16.6% a year earlier, while buybacks cut diluted shares 7.9% over the last year.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $34,295 million, up 4.4% year over year, below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and the latest quarter's revenue growth was 2.0% versus 3.7% a year earlier. Net margin fell to 12.5% in the quarter ended 2026-09-30 from 16.6% in the quarter ended 2025-12-31, and diluted shares fell 7.9% over the last year.

Why it matters now

Decelerating revenue growth and a contracting net margin suggest the core checkout franchise is losing pricing and volume momentum, while the falling share count supports per-share results without proving the cash source of repurchases.

What could change the view

Countercase: If the margin decline reflects one-time items rather than structural cost pressure, the weak-profitability read is wrong; the missing operating-margin and free-cash-flow-conversion comparisons leave the quality of earnings unverified. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the deceleration claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
46
Evidence confidence
60
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
7.80
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.15
Weighted contribution
7.12
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
46
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.15
Weighted contribution
7.12

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.54

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.68

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.85

News specialist

Bullish

Score
66
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
8.93

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.24
Weighted contribution
14.77

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
8.86

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
53
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.05

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

PYPL: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

57

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

News specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 66Evidence confidence 62
What the specialist sees

Three tier-1 items dated 2026-10-27 cover an earnings beat and a raised full-year outlook, with one-day return relative to SPY of 1.44 and three-session return after the news of 3.56, and an 8-K dated 2026-10-27 carrying items 2.02,9.01.

Why it matters

Because the beat and raised outlook were followed by positive excess returns, the news flow supports an attractive read over the next one to three months.

What argues against it

The positive read could be wrong if the 1.44% first-day excess return fades before the next filing, since the 3.56% three-day figure rests on only three tier-1 items.

This specialist’s break condition: A later close showing the 3.56% three-day excess return reversing to negative would break the confirmed-positive read.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 56.80. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.20. 55 on 2026-10-29 → 57 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. News specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Financial specialist

    Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $34,295 million, up 4.4% year over year, below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and the latest quarter's revenue growth was 2.0% versus 3.7% a year earlier. Net margin fell to 12.5% in the quarter ended 2026-09-30 from 16.6% in the quarter ended 2025-12-31, and diluted shares fell 7.9% over the last year.

  3. Valuation specialist

    The EPS-model grid prices the base case at $181.9, 219% above the $57.01 close, while the peer-implied median of $65.87 is 15.5% above the close and the own P/E of 10.88 sits at the 0th percentile of the Financials peer set.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later close showing the 3.56% three-day excess return reversing to negative would break the confirmed-positive read.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

PYPL: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $34,295 million, up 4.4% year over year, below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and the latest quarter's revenue growth was 2.0% versus 3.7% a year earlier. Net margin fell to 12.5% in the quarter ended 2026-09-30 from 16.6% in the quarter ended 2025-12-31, and diluted shares fell 7.9% over the last year.

Valuation model

The EPS-model grid prices the base case at $181.9, 219% above the $57.01 close, while the peer-implied median of $65.87 is 15.5% above the close and the own P/E of 10.88 sits at the 0th percentile of the Financials peer set.

Potential upside

  • PayPal's EPS-model base case gives a fair value of $181.9, 219% above the $57.01 close, with a bear-bull range of $29.6 to $330.1. The peer-implied median of $65.87 sits 15.5% above the close, so comps confirm the cheap read.

Potential downside

  • PayPal's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $34,295 million grew 4.4%, below the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median, and quarterly growth decelerated to 2.0%. Net margin slipped to 12.5% in the latest quarter from 16.6% a year earlier, while buybacks cut diluted shares 7.9% over the last year.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 5.4% sector revenue-growth median would break the deceleration claim.

  • A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.4% the current filing states, or an own P/E above the 12.57 Financials peer median, would break the cheap-verdict claim.

  • A later close showing the 3.56% three-day excess return reversing to negative would break the confirmed-positive read.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $57.01 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

Fair value by exit earnings multiple, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$29.60−48% vs close
Base
$181.90+219% vs close
Bull
$330.10+479% vs close

The bull case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $65.87 (+15.5% vs close)

Peers: the 10 Liquid 100 names in Financials that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BAC, C, COIN, HBAN, HOOD, KEY, RF, SCHW, TFC, WFC.

Multiples against the peer group

Financials · 10 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)10.88×

    Peer median 12.57× · middle half 11.91× to 16.04× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.53×

    Peer median 3.13× · middle half 2.97× to 5.26× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to book2.69×

    Peer median 1.29× · middle half 1.12× to 2.42× · 70th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield12.01%

    Peer median 6.09% · middle half −3.98% to 7.68% · 100th percentile of the group

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 9 valuation inputs required conservative handling: no full-year gross-profit line was filed; another valuation input required conservative handling; tax expense is not among this research’s inputs; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

PayPal (PYPL) research | Sagehood