Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Radar
SMCI

SMCI Research brief

Supermicro

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$32.95(−4.30%)

Sagehood’s view on SMCI

Supermicro · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

46Neutral50 is balancedScore change +2 since 2026-10-29, from 44 to 46; view changed from Bearish to Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 45 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhySupermicro reads neutral because revenue grew 77.8% while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$6,972 million and conversion was −3.13 against a 1.01 sector median. The unresolved risk is the peer-implied median of $182.29, 453.2% above the close.This view cites the peer-multiple estimate, which this page does not show. See Valuation & peers.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is the peer-implied valuation gap, which is extreme. The peer-implied median of $182.29 sits 453.2% above the $32.95 close, though it rests on only 3 implied prices and may be a composition artifact.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value for this run

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is 5.5 times the close.

Against peers

Information Technology
MultipleSMCIGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)10.11×32.93×4th
P/S0.56×7.08×4th
P/B1.51×8.35×0th
FCF yield−31.9%2.61%0th

Those medians include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”.

Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$32.95 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−4.30%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run44 on 2026-10-29 → 46 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set27 names in Information Technology, listed with how they were chosen under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range says why the peer-multiple estimate is not shown.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $32.95

+4.0% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

SMCI adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. SMCI adjusted close. Continuous series. $32.95 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3046Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2944Bearish42Method 4
2026-10-2845Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2750Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2647Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2347Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2248Neutral48Method 4
2026-10-2144Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-1635Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0951Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-0755Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0252Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0153Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-3050Neutral48Method 4
2026-09-2950Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-2851Neutral45Method 4
2026-09-2544Bearish48Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective44Bearish48Method 4
2026-09-2344Bearish60Method 4
2026-09-1848Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective40Bearish45Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective48Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-0442Bearish40Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective48Neutral50Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective50Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-2846Neutral49Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective48Neutral49Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective51Neutral49Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective45Neutral59Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective46Neutral60Method 3
2026-08-1450Neutral60Method 2
2026-08-1348Neutral60Method 1
2026-08-0745Neutral70Method 1
2026-08-0642Bearish70Method 1
2026-08-0446Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-3145Neutral70Method 1
2026-07-2346Neutral49Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

SMCI research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Supermicro's 77.8% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth is not converting to cash: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is −$6,972 million and conversion is −3.13 versus the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was −$6,810 million and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$6,972 million, with free cash flow conversion of −3.13 versus the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median, while trailing-twelve-month revenue of $39,063 million grew 77.8% year over year.

Why it matters now

Rapid revenue growth is not converting into cash, as negative operating and free cash flow alongside a 23.1% accrual ratio and a 3.8% share increase point to earnings quality and funding pressure.

What could change the view

Countercase: A swing to positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in the next filing, or a share count that stops rising, would undercut the cash-quality concern, and the missing total debt leaves leverage unassessed. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
50
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.19
Weighted contribution
9.54
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was −$6,810 million and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$6,972 million, with free cash flow conversion of −3.13 versus the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median, while trailing-twelve-month revenue of $39,063 million grew 77.8% year over year.
Mechanism
Rapid revenue growth is not converting into cash, as negative operating and free cash flow alongside a 23.1% accrual ratio and a 3.8% share increase point to earnings quality and funding pressure.
Countercase
A swing to positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in the next filing, or a share count that stops rising, would undercut the cash-quality concern, and the missing total debt leaves leverage unassessed.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.19
Weighted contribution
9.54

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
28
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
2.58

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
5.77

SEC filings specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.19

News specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
52
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.48

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.25
Weighted contribution
10.57

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
30
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.03

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
51
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.14

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

SMCI: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

46

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 50Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was −$6,810 million and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was −$6,972 million, with free cash flow conversion of −3.13 versus the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median, while trailing-twelve-month revenue of $39,063 million grew 77.8% year over year.

Why it matters

Rapid revenue growth is not converting into cash, as negative operating and free cash flow alongside a 23.1% accrual ratio and a 3.8% share increase point to earnings quality and funding pressure.

What argues against it

A swing to positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in the next filing, or a share count that stops rising, would undercut the cash-quality concern, and the missing total debt leaves leverage unassessed.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 46.31. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.31. 44 on 2026-10-29 → 46 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Risk specialist

    SMCI shows drawdown from the one-year high −36.6% against maximum one-year drawdown −60.5%, one-year large daily-move count 90, twenty-day annualized volatility 73.1% versus sixty-day annualized volatility 77.6%, and downside beta 5.48 versus SPY beta 3.86.

  3. SEC filings specialist

    SMCI filed an 8-K with Item 5.02 and Item 9.01 on 2026-10-15 and another on 2026-10-08, alongside a 2024-11-18 8-K 4.01 auditor change and a 2025-02-11 NT late filing, with 34 Form 4s over the last 90 days.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM free cash flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free cash flow conversion median would break the cash-quality claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

SMCI: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Cash-flow model unavailable

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $32.95 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Cash-flow model unavailable: the recorded total debt, net debt are missing or invalid. Other valuation methods retain their own checks.

The peer-multiple estimate is not shown: it is 5.5 times the close.

Peers: the 27 Liquid 100 names in Information Technology that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The 27 names

AAPL, AMD, APH, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, GEN, GLW, HPE, HPQ, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NOW, NVDA, ON, ORCL, PLTR, QCOM, SNDK, WDC.

Multiples against the peer group

Information Technology · 27 companies in the group

Sector median includes AVGO, whose per-share figure failed the share-basis check in this research.

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)10.11×

    Peer median 32.93× · middle half 20.61× to 49.15× · 4th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales0.56×

    Peer median 7.08× · middle half 5.01× to 12.88× · 4th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.51×

    Peer median 8.35× · middle half 6.43× to 15.99× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield−31.9%

    Peer median 2.61% · middle half 1.75% to 5.43% · 0th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 13 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; total debt was unavailable; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Supermicro (SMCI) research | Sagehood