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UBER

UBER Research brief

Uber

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$65.25(−0.75%)

Sagehood’s view on UBER

Uber · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

47Neutral50 is balancedScore unchanged since 2026-10-29 at 47; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe neutral view is driven by strong cash conversion of 1.06 on $10,116 million of free cash flow, offset by revenue growth slowing to 12.2% and a 12.1% operating margin below the 14.9% sector median. The unresolved risk is a 34.6% drawdown at its one-year maximum.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is valuation: base fair value of $100.0 per share sits 53% above the $65.25 close. The comps median of $170.37 implies a 161.1% gain, so the discount may already price the slowdown.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 16.7% sector revenue-growth median with accelerating quarterly growth would break the deceleration claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$35.20
Base
$100.00
Bull
$195.70

Base case +53% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-06-30. Peer-implied median $170.37 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

Against peers

Industrials
MultipleUBERGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)14.31×23.26×0th
P/S2.45×6.39×25th
P/B4.95×13.69×25th
FCF yield7.48%2%100th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$65.25 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.75%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run47 on 2026-10-29 → 47 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set4 names in Industrials: BA, BE, CPRT, CSX. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $65.25

−9.7% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

UBER adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. UBER adjusted close. Continuous series. $65.25 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3047Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2947Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2846Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2747Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2650Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2350Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2251Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2145Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-1650Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0952Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-0750Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0247Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0145Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-3048Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2948Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2847Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2554Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective56Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2356Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-1857Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective51Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective43Bearish64Method 4
2026-09-0454Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective51Neutral75Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective54Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2858Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective58Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective56Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective55Neutral61Method 3
2026-08-1452Neutral60Method 2
2026-08-1352Neutral58Method 1
2026-08-0752Neutral58Method 1
2026-08-0652Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-0450Neutral61Method 1
2026-07-3147Neutral62Method 1
2026-07-2345Neutral50Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

UBER research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Uber still converts revenue into cash well, with $10,116 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at 1.06 conversion, but growth is cooling: quarterly revenue growth fell from 20.4% to 12.2% and the 12.1% trailing-twelve-month operating margin trails the 14.9% sector operating-margin median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $55,227 million with 16.7% growth and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $10,116 million at 1.06 conversion, but quarterly revenue growth slowed from 20.4% to 12.2% and trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 12.1% was below the 14.9% sector operating-margin median.

Why it matters now

Slowing revenue growth from 20.4% to 12.2% alongside a 12.1% trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 14.9% sector operating-margin median implies bookings momentum is fading faster than costs, so the strong cash conversion may not persist at the same rate.

What could change the view

Countercase: If the 12.2% latest quarterly growth is a trough rather than a trend, the deceleration read is wrong; the missing gross-margin delta and interest-coverage figures leave margin direction and debt service unquantified. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 16.7% sector revenue-growth median with accelerating quarterly growth would break the deceleration claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
9.88
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $55,227 million with 16.7% growth and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $10,116 million at 1.06 conversion, but quarterly revenue growth slowed from 20.4% to 12.2% and trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 12.1% was below the 14.9% sector operating-margin median.
Mechanism
Slowing revenue growth from 20.4% to 12.2% alongside a 12.1% trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 14.9% sector operating-margin median implies bookings momentum is fading faster than costs, so the strong cash conversion may not persist at the same rate.
Countercase
If the 12.2% latest quarterly growth is a trough rather than a trend, the deceleration read is wrong; the missing gross-margin delta and interest-coverage figures leave margin direction and debt service unquantified.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
9.88

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
3.99

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.08
Weighted contribution
3.71

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.54

News specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.63

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.26
Weighted contribution
7.87

Valuation specialist

Neutral

Score
64
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
10.55

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
53
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.76

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

UBER: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

47

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 58Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $55,227 million with 16.7% growth and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $10,116 million at 1.06 conversion, but quarterly revenue growth slowed from 20.4% to 12.2% and trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 12.1% was below the 14.9% sector operating-margin median.

Why it matters

Slowing revenue growth from 20.4% to 12.2% alongside a 12.1% trailing-twelve-month operating margin below the 14.9% sector operating-margin median implies bookings momentum is fading faster than costs, so the strong cash conversion may not persist at the same rate.

What argues against it

If the 12.2% latest quarterly growth is a trough rather than a trend, the deceleration read is wrong; the missing gross-margin delta and interest-coverage figures leave margin direction and debt service unquantified.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth at or above the 16.7% sector revenue-growth median with accelerating quarterly growth would break the deceleration claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 46.93. Sagehood research’s adjustment was +0.07. 47 on 2026-10-29 → 47 on 2026-10-30 (0 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close 65.25 is 11.0% below 200-day average and 8.4% below 50-day average, with the 1-year channel slope at −20.7% per year and the 90-day slope at −21.1% per year; 14-day ADX (trend strength) is 27.4 with negative directional indicator 27.5 against positive directional indicator 9.4.

  3. Risk specialist

    UBER shows drawdown from the one-year high −34.6% equal to maximum one-year drawdown −34.6%, twenty-day annualized volatility 27.0% below sixty-day annualized volatility 31.5% with a falling volatility trend, one-year large daily-move count 21, downside beta 1.13 against SPY beta 0.8, and days to earnings 4.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth at or above the 16.7% sector revenue-growth median with accelerating quarterly growth would break the deceleration claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

UBER: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $65.25 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-06-30.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$35.20−46% vs close
Base
$100.00+53% vs close
Bull
$195.70+200% vs close

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $170.37 (+161.1% vs close)

Peers: the 4 Liquid 100 names in Industrials that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: BA, BE, CPRT, CSX.

Multiples against the peer group

Industrials · 4 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)14.31×

    Peer median 23.26× · middle half 19.01× to 51.09× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales2.45×

    Peer median 6.39× · middle half 5.09× to 9.12× · 25th percentile of the group

  • Price to book4.95×

    Peer median 13.69× · middle half 5.86× to 23.89× · 25th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield7.48%

    Peer median 2% · middle half 0.51% to 3.56% · 100th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 8 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Uber (UBER) research | Sagehood