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VICI

VICI Research brief

Vici Properties

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$24.46(−0.24%)

Sagehood’s view on VICI

Vici Properties · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

49Neutral50 is balancedScore change −2 since 2026-10-29, from 51 to 49; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 50 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe neutral view is driven by a net margin falling from 85.7% to 32.1% and an 8.2% return on equity against $16,917 million of debt. The unresolved risk is that a −35 basis point yield move and a 2.0% gap over 50-day average keep the bounce alive.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is the rate tailwind: a −35 basis point 20-day move in the 10-year yield supports a rate beta of −0.88. Price also sits 2.0% above 50-day average with 14-day RSI 60.1 and a 16-day MACD bull cross.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing twelve months return on equity at or above 12% with a rising trend would break the weak-return claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value · the exit earnings multiple model declined

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($161.70) was 6.6 times the close ($24.46), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $42.63).

Close $24.46 (recorded) on 2026-10-30; estimates use fundamentals to 2026-09-30.

Rejected model output (not a valuation)
Bear
$28.70
Base
$161.70
Bull
$250.70

The model’s own grid cells, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Against peers

Real Estate
MultipleVICIGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)11.32×32.30×0th
P/S6.29×2.80×67th
P/B0.90×1.57×0th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$24.46 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−0.24%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage7 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 3 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 7 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run51 on 2026-10-29 → 49 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set3 names in Real Estate: HST, O, WY. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $24.46

−6.0% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

VICI adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. VICI adjusted close. Continuous series. $24.46 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3049Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2951Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2846Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2750Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2647Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2345Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2247Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-2142Bearish45Method 4
2026-10-1645Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-0944Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0746Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0240Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-0138Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-3042Bearish50Method 4
2026-09-2942Bearish50Method 4
2026-09-2842Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-2547Neutral46Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective45Neutral48Method 4
2026-09-2345Neutral48Method 4
2026-09-1845Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective43Bearish50Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective42Bearish58Method 4
2026-09-0446Neutral50Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective47Neutral70Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective47Neutral71Method 3
2026-08-2845Neutral69Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective44Bearish68Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective45Neutral40Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective45Neutral68Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective44Bearish71Method 3
2026-08-1446Neutral68Method 2
2026-08-1348Neutral71Method 1
2026-08-0749Neutral40Method 1
2026-08-0649Neutral40Method 1
2026-08-0448Neutral68Method 1
2026-07-3147Neutral48Method 1
2026-07-2346Neutral49Method 1

Specialists

7 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

3 unavailable

VICI research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Vici's net margin collapsed from 85.7% to 32.1% across the last four quarters and trailing twelve months return on equity is 8.2%, while $16,917 million of total debt dwarfs $270 million of cash; the 4.7% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth is steady but thin.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $4,156 million with 4.7% growth and trailing-twelve-month net margin was 56.5%, but quarterly net margin fell from 85.7% to 32.1% and trailing twelve months return on equity was 8.2%, while total debt was $16,917 million against $270 million of cash.

Why it matters now

A net margin falling from 85.7% to 32.1% and an 8.2% trailing twelve months return on equity imply the rent roll is not covering the cost of a $16,917 million debt load, so equity returns depend on refinancing terms that are not observed.

What could change the view

Countercase: If the net-margin swing is a one-off property charge rather than a trend, the contracting read is wrong; the missing free-cash-flow conversion and net-debt-to-EBITDA figures leave cash quality and leverage unquantified. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing twelve months return on equity at or above 12% with a rising trend would break the weak-return claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.21
Weighted contribution
9.33
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $4,156 million with 4.7% growth and trailing-twelve-month net margin was 56.5%, but quarterly net margin fell from 85.7% to 32.1% and trailing twelve months return on equity was 8.2%, while total debt was $16,917 million against $270 million of cash.
Mechanism
A net margin falling from 85.7% to 32.1% and an 8.2% trailing twelve months return on equity imply the rent roll is not covering the cost of a $16,917 million debt load, so equity returns depend on refinancing terms that are not observed.
Countercase
If the net-margin swing is a one-off property charge rather than a trend, the contracting read is wrong; the missing free-cash-flow conversion and net-debt-to-EBITDA figures leave cash quality and leverage unquantified.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
44
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.21
Weighted contribution
9.33

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
6.26

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
46
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
4.82

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.92

News specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
48
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
6.40

Price-trend specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.28
Weighted contribution
14.54

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
6.04

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Valuation specialist, Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Valuation specialist: The valuation specialist did not vote on this run because the valuation model declined to give a fair value: the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($161.70) was 6.6 times the close ($24.46), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $42.63).
  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

VICI: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

49

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 44Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $4,156 million with 4.7% growth and trailing-twelve-month net margin was 56.5%, but quarterly net margin fell from 85.7% to 32.1% and trailing twelve months return on equity was 8.2%, while total debt was $16,917 million against $270 million of cash.

Why it matters

A net margin falling from 85.7% to 32.1% and an 8.2% trailing twelve months return on equity imply the rent roll is not covering the cost of a $16,917 million debt load, so equity returns depend on refinancing terms that are not observed.

What argues against it

If the net-margin swing is a one-off property charge rather than a trend, the contracting read is wrong; the missing free-cash-flow conversion and net-debt-to-EBITDA figures leave cash quality and leverage unquantified.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing twelve months return on equity at or above 12% with a rising trend would break the weak-return claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 49.30. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.30. 51 on 2026-10-29 → 49 on 2026-10-30 (−2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close 24.46 is 6.6% below 200-day average but 2.0% above 50-day average, with the 90-day channel slope at −35.4% per year and trend-channel position 2.41 standard deviations; the 1-year channel slopes −13.5% per year.

  3. Risk specialist

    VICI shows twenty-day annualized volatility 24.7% above sixty-day annualized volatility 20.0% with a rising volatility trend, drawdown from the one-year high −15.2% versus maximum one-year drawdown −21.9%, one-year large daily-move count 2, downside beta 0.0 against SPY beta −0.03, and twenty-day average dollar volume $231.9 million.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM return on equity at or above 12% with a rising trend would break the weak-return claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

VICI: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation: the model declined to give a fair value

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $24.46 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($161.70) was 6.6 times the close ($24.46), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $42.63).

Rejected model output (not a valuation)

The exit earnings multiple grid cells this run nominated, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Bear
$28.70+17% vs close
Base
$161.70+561% vs close
Bull
$250.70+925% vs close

The base and bull cases sit more than 5× from the close: extreme scenarios, shown as the model computed them.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $42.63 (+74.3% vs close)

Peers: the 3 Liquid 100 names in Real Estate that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: HST, O, WY.

Multiples against the peer group

Real Estate · 3 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)11.32×

    Peer median 32.30× · middle half 24.64× to 36.92× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales6.29×

    Peer median 2.80× · middle half 2.45× to 5.79× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Price to book0.90×

    Peer median 1.57× · middle half 1.46× to 2.15× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yieldNot computed in this research

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 14 valuation inputs required conservative handling: capital spending was unavailable; another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; no full-year operating income was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete; the measured beta of 0.25 was below the floor used for the cost of equity, so the floor was applied instead.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Vici Properties (VICI) research | Sagehood