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WDC

WDC Research brief

Western Digital

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$366.11(−7.41%)

Sagehood’s view on WDC

Western Digital · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

41Bearish50 is balancedScore change −3 since 2026-10-29, from 44 to 41; view unchanged at Bearish. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe bearish view is driven by free cash flow conversion of 0.43 against the 1.01 sector median and a 34.7% accrual ratio, despite 43.0% revenue growth. The unresolved risk is a 50.9% drawdown with 106 large-move days in the past year.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the bearish stance is the operating momentum: 43.0% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth and a 39.4% operating margin above the 23.2% sector median. The five-year channel still slopes up 66.1% per year, so this could be a deep correction.
Break conditionA later reading showing free-cash-flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the weak-conversion claim.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$53.70
Base
$312.80
Bull
$504.10

Base case −15% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-10-02. Peer-implied median $248.53 from 3 peer-median multiples. Those medians include figures from another company that are withheld on its own page; see “Valuation & peers”. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Against peers

Information Technology
MultipleWDCGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)14.17×32.93×15th
P/S9.71×6.59×63rd
P/B15.04×8.30×72nd
FCF yield3.05%2.54%59th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$366.11 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day−7.41%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run44 on 2026-10-29 → 41 on 2026-10-30 (−3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set27 names in Information Technology, listed with how they were chosen under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $366.11

−45.8% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

WDC adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. WDC adjusted close. Continuous series. $366.11 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-31 to 2026-10-30 · 25 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3041Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2944Bearish55Method 4
2026-10-2846Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2746Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2644Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2345Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2240Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-2145Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0938Bearish50Method 4
2026-10-0745Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-0247Neutral42Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective42Bearish50Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective45Neutral65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2855Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective55Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective56Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective57Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1458Neutral63Method 2
2026-08-1353Neutral61Method 1
2026-08-0752Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0652Neutral63Method 1
2026-08-0456Neutral63Method 1
2026-07-3148Neutral75Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

WDC research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bullish

Western Digital's operating momentum is strong, with 43.0% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth and a 39.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin above the 23.2% sector operating-margin median, but only 0.43 of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow converts from earnings versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: trailing-twelve-month revenue was $14,482 million with 43.0% growth and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 39.4% against the 23.2% sector operating-margin median, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion was 0.43 versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and the accrual ratio was 34.7%.

Why it matters now

A 39.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin above the 23.2% sector operating-margin median shows real pricing power, but 0.43 free-cash-flow conversion versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and a 34.7% accrual ratio imply reported profit is running well ahead of cash collection.

What could change the view

Countercase: If the 0.43 free-cash-flow conversion reflects a temporary working-capital build rather than a structural gap, the weak-quality read is wrong; the missing interest-coverage figure leaves debt service unquantified. Falsifier: A later reading showing free-cash-flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the weak-conversion claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
65
Evidence confidence
70
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
9.10
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.17
Weighted contribution
10.78
Business driver
Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $14,482 million with 43.0% growth and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 39.4% against the 23.2% sector operating-margin median, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion was 0.43 versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and the accrual ratio was 34.7%.
Mechanism
A 39.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin above the 23.2% sector operating-margin median shows real pricing power, but 0.43 free-cash-flow conversion versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and a 34.7% accrual ratio imply reported profit is running well ahead of cash collection.
Countercase
If the 0.43 free-cash-flow conversion reflects a temporary working-capital build rather than a structural gap, the weak-quality read is wrong; the missing interest-coverage figure leaves debt service unquantified.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bullish

Score
65
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.17
Weighted contribution
10.78

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
28
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
2.86

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
33
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
3.73

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.03
Weighted contribution
1.50

News specialist

Neutral

Score
48
Evidence confidence
52
Weight in the score
0.10
Weighted contribution
5.00

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
32
Evidence confidence
65
Weight in the score
0.24
Weighted contribution
7.58

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
35
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
5.61

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
4.37

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

WDC: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

41

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bullish

Specialist score 65Evidence confidence 70
What the specialist sees

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $14,482 million with 43.0% growth and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 39.4% against the 23.2% sector operating-margin median, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion was 0.43 versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and the accrual ratio was 34.7%.

Why it matters

A 39.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin above the 23.2% sector operating-margin median shows real pricing power, but 0.43 free-cash-flow conversion versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and a 34.7% accrual ratio imply reported profit is running well ahead of cash collection.

What argues against it

If the 0.43 free-cash-flow conversion reflects a temporary working-capital build rather than a structural gap, the weak-quality read is wrong; the missing interest-coverage figure leaves debt service unquantified.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing free-cash-flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the weak-conversion claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 41.44. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.44. 44 on 2026-10-29 → 41 on 2026-10-30 (−3 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close 366.11 is 12.6% below 200-day average and 13.1% below 50-day average, with the 90-day channel slope at −73.0% per year and the 1-year slope at 244.0% per year; 14-day ADX (trend strength) is 25.2 with negative directional indicator 31.2 against positive directional indicator 20.7.

  3. Risk specialist

    WDC shows drawdown from the one-year high −50.9% versus maximum one-year drawdown −55.5%, twenty-day annualized volatility 72.9% above sixty-day annualized volatility 65.0% with a stable volatility trend, one-year large daily-move count 106, downside beta 2.07 against SPY beta 3.22, and days to earnings 90.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing free-cash-flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the weak-conversion claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

WDC: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $14,482 million with 43.0% growth and trailing-twelve-month operating margin was 39.4% against the 23.2% sector operating-margin median, but trailing-twelve-month free cash flow conversion was 0.43 versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median and the accrual ratio was 34.7%.

Valuation model

The base case at 33.9% revenue growth and a 29.6% FCF margin gives a fair value of $312.8 per share, 15% below the $366.11 close, while the comps median of $248.53 implies a 32.1% decline.

This analysis cites the peer-implied figure, whose sector median this page flags. See Valuation & peers.

Potential upside

  • Western Digital's operating momentum is strong, with 43.0% trailing-twelve-month revenue growth and a 39.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin above the 23.2% sector operating-margin median, but only 0.43 of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow converts from earnings versus the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median.

Potential downside

  • Base fair value of $312.8 per share is 15% below the $366.11 close, and the comps median of $248.53 implies a 32.1% decline, so both methods read rich. Trailing-twelve-month FCF margin of 29.6% anchors the base case.

See the note under Key figures above.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing free-cash-flow conversion at or above the 1.01 sector free-cash-flow-conversion median would break the weak-conversion claim.

  • A later filing showing trailing-twelve-month FCF margin below 25.6% would break the base case claim that fair value stays near $312.8 per share.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $366.11 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-10-02.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$53.70−85% vs close
Base
$312.80−15% vs close
Bull
$504.10+38% vs close

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $248.53 (−32.1% vs close)

Peers: the 27 Liquid 100 names in Information Technology that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The 27 names

AAPL, AMD, APH, AVGO, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, DELL, GEN, GLW, HPE, HPQ, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NOW, NVDA, ON, ORCL, PLTR, QCOM, SMCI, SNDK.

Multiples against the peer group

Information Technology · 27 companies in the group

Sector median includes AVGO, whose per-share figure failed the share-basis check in this research.

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)14.17×

    Peer median 32.93× · middle half 20.61× to 49.15× · 15th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales9.71×

    Peer median 6.59× · middle half 4.55× to 12.88× · 63rd percentile of the group

  • Price to book15.04×

    Peer median 8.30× · middle half 6.41× to 15.99× · 72nd percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield3.05%

    Peer median 2.54% · middle half 1.33% to 5.43% · 59th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 6 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Western Digital (WDC) research | Sagehood