Skip to main content
Preview

Research from Friday’s close · next update overnight after Monday’s close

Radar
WMT

WMT Research brief

Walmart

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$123.51(+1.86%)

Sagehood’s view on WMT

Walmart · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

56Neutral50 is balancedScore change +2 since 2026-10-29, from 54 to 56; view unchanged at Neutral. Compare the two recordsConfidence 55 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe neutral view is driven by a 4.4% operating margin and 0.6 free-cash-flow conversion against the 16.8% sector median, offset by a 29.5% five-year price channel. The unresolved risk is a base fair value of $44.4, 64% below the $123.51 close.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the neutral stance is the trend itself: price sits 4.5% above 200-day average and 12.0% above 50-day average, with a 29.5% five-year channel and positive directional indicator 47.0 against negative directional indicator 11.1. Momentum could keep extending.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing the operating margin below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median would break the margin claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Neutral view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

Close vs. model fair value · discounted cash flow

Bear
$19.80
Base
$44.40
Bull
$124.90

Base case −64% vs. the 2026-10-30 close, on fundamentals to 2026-07-31. Peer-implied median $67.15 from 3 peer-median multiples. Estimates from this research’s valuation model, not a price target.

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

The market price implies more growth or higher margins than this model assumes, so its base case sits far below the close. The valuation specialist weighs that gap; it is not a forecast that the price will fall.

Against peers

Consumer Staples
MultipleWMTGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)44.75×24.33×100th
P/S1.36×2.43×22nd
P/B10.06×5.34×88th
FCF yield1.37%5.56%0th
Score details & research limitations9 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Neutral view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$123.51 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+1.86%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage8 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 2 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 8 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted run54 on 2026-10-29 → 56 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.
The run this is compared withResearch of 2026-10-29

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set9 names in Consumer Staples: GIS, KDP, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PEP, PG. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The valuation range shows the peer-implied median from 3 peer-median multiples.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

9 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $123.51

+6.9% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

WMT adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. WMT adjusted close. Continuous series. $123.51 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Published score history

2026-07-23 to 2026-10-30 · 37 publications

Each point is a verified published score. The line breaks where the research method changed (4 methods, numbered in the order they were first used), so scores are not joined across methods. Hollow points were published after their decision window (retrospective).

Every published score and confidence
Research dateScoreViewConfidenceMethod
2026-10-3056Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2954Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2853Neutral49Method 4
2026-10-2755Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2650Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2354Neutral55Method 4
2026-10-2250Neutral50Method 4
2026-10-2149Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-1645Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0950Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0746Neutral45Method 4
2026-10-0246Neutral40Method 4
2026-10-0144Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-3045Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2945Neutral55Method 4
2026-09-2845Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-2545Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-24 · retrospective46Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-2345Neutral60Method 4
2026-09-1845Neutral65Method 4
2026-09-16 · retrospective40Bearish65Method 4
2026-09-09 · retrospective43Bearish52Method 4
2026-09-0442Bearish55Method 4
2026-09-01 · retrospective42Bearish65Method 4
2026-08-31 · retrospective46Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-2846Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-26 · retrospective45Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-24 · retrospective46Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-20 · retrospective46Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-19 · retrospective46Neutral63Method 3
2026-08-1449Neutral58Method 2
2026-08-1350Neutral58Method 1
2026-08-0751Neutral58Method 1
2026-08-0650Neutral58Method 1
2026-08-0450Neutral60Method 1
2026-07-3147Neutral70Method 1
2026-07-2343Bearish52Method 1

Specialists

8 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

2 unavailable

WMT research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Neutral

Walmart grows trailing-twelve-month revenue 6.1% to $728,466 million, but a 4.4% operating margin and 0.6 free-cash-flow conversion leave thin profitability versus the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: Walmart shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $728,466 million with 6.1% growth, a 4.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin, and $13,509 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at 0.6 conversion, versus a 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

Why it matters now

If the 4.4% operating margin holds, Walmart converts only a thin slice of each sales dollar into profit, so the 6.1% revenue growth carries less earnings leverage than the 16.8% sector operating-margin median implies.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the 4.4% operating margin is a mix artifact that reverses, or if the 0.6 free-cash-flow conversion reflects timing rather than a durable cash gap. Falsifier: A later reading showing the operating margin below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median would break the margin claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
60
Evidence confidence
60
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
7.80
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.15
Weighted contribution
9.15
Business driver
Walmart shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $728,466 million with 6.1% growth, a 4.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin, and $13,509 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at 0.6 conversion, versus a 16.8% sector operating-margin median.
Mechanism
If the 4.4% operating margin holds, Walmart converts only a thin slice of each sales dollar into profit, so the 6.1% revenue growth carries less earnings leverage than the 16.8% sector operating-margin median implies.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the 4.4% operating margin is a mix artifact that reverses, or if the 0.6 free-cash-flow conversion reflects timing rather than a durable cash gap.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Neutral

Score
60
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.15
Weighted contribution
9.15

Risk specialist

Neutral

Score
60
Evidence confidence
70
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
6.57

Sector specialist

Neutral

Score
62
Evidence confidence
62
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
7.52

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.04
Weighted contribution
1.76

News specialist

Neutral

Score
52
Evidence confidence
52
Weight in the score
0.11
Weighted contribution
5.82

Price-trend specialist

Bullish

Score
68
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.23
Weighted contribution
15.96

Valuation specialist

Bearish

Score
30
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.14
Weighted contribution
4.23

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.09
Weighted contribution
5.07

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

WMT: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

56

Neutral50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Neutral

Specialist score 60Evidence confidence 60
What the specialist sees

Walmart shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $728,466 million with 6.1% growth, a 4.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin, and $13,509 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at 0.6 conversion, versus a 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

Why it matters

If the 4.4% operating margin holds, Walmart converts only a thin slice of each sales dollar into profit, so the 6.1% revenue growth carries less earnings leverage than the 16.8% sector operating-margin median implies.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the 4.4% operating margin is a mix artifact that reverses, or if the 0.6 free-cash-flow conversion reflects timing rather than a durable cash gap.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing the operating margin below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median would break the margin claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 56.08. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.08. 54 on 2026-10-29 → 56 on 2026-10-30 (+2 points). This is simple arithmetic between the two published scores, not an explanation of the change.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close $123.51 is 4.5% above 200-day average and 12.0% above 50-day average, with the 5-year channel slope +29.5%/yr (fit R² 0.92) and 2-year +19.1%/yr; 14-day ADX (trend strength) is 40.8, positive directional indicator 47.0 versus negative directional indicator 11.1, and rsi14W 61.0.

  3. Risk specialist

    WMT shows twenty-day annualized volatility 20.1% against sixty-day annualized volatility 28.4% with volatility trend falling, drawdown from the one-year high −7.7% versus maximum one-year drawdown −23.3%, one-year large daily-move count 4, worst five-day return over one year −11.7%, downside beta −0.39 below SPY beta −0.12, and twenty-day average dollar volume $2.31 billion.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing the operating margin below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median would break the margin claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

WMT: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Research evidence at a glance

Accepted specialist evidence · no score adjustment

Key figures

Fundamentals

Walmart shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $728,466 million with 6.1% growth, a 4.4% trailing-twelve-month operating margin, and $13,509 million of trailing-twelve-month free cash flow at 0.6 conversion, versus a 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

Valuation model

The base DCF case at 2.6% revenue growth and a 3% FCF margin gives a fair value of $44.4 and −64% upside, while the peer-implied median of $67.15 rests on 3 implied prices and sits 45.6% below the $123.51 close.

Potential upside

  • Walmart grows trailing-twelve-month revenue 6.1% to $728,466 million, but a 4.4% operating margin and 0.6 free-cash-flow conversion leave thin profitability versus the 16.8% sector operating-margin median.

Potential downside

  • Walmart's base DCF case at 2.6% revenue growth and a 3% FCF margin gives a fair value of $44.4, about 64% below the $123.51 close, and the peer-implied median of $67.15 sits 45.6% below the close.

Questions to watch

  • A later reading showing the operating margin below the 16.8% sector operating-margin median would break the margin claim.

  • A later reading showing the FCF margin at or above the threshold of 9.9% would break the base margin path, since that column's fair value of $147.5 sits above the $123.51 close.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation the research computed

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $123.51 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-07-31.

Fair value by discounted cash flow, at the cells this run nominated.

Bear
$19.80−84% vs close
Base
$44.40−64% vs close
Bull
$124.90+1% vs close

The bear case sits more than 5× from the close: an extreme scenario, shown as the model computed it.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $67.15 (−45.6% vs close)

Peers: the 9 Liquid 100 names in Consumer Staples that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: GIS, KDP, KHC, KO, KVUE, MNST, MO, PEP, PG.

Multiples against the peer group

Consumer Staples · 9 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)44.75×

    Peer median 24.33× · middle half 19.61× to 31.98× · 100th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales1.36×

    Peer median 2.43× · middle half 1.92× to 5.55× · 22nd percentile of the group

  • Price to book10.06×

    Peer median 5.34× · middle half 2.35× to 8.83× · 88th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield1.37%

    Peer median 5.56% · middle half 3.94% to 6.95% · 0th percentile of the group

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 6 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; no full-year gross-profit line was filed; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Walmart (WMT) research | Sagehood