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WY Research brief

Weyerhaeuser

Adjusted close as of 2026-10-30
$20.35(+3.04%)

Sagehood’s view on WY

Weyerhaeuser · Research 2026-10-30 · Accepted

Research score

44Bearish50 is balancedWY was not in the previous published research (2026-10-29), so there is no earlier score or view to compare.Confidence 50 · It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.Confidence across the 100 names in this research run: 45 to 70, median 55.
How to read this score

Dated research brief

WhyThe bearish view is driven by a five-year channel sloping −6.6% per year and price 12.8% below 200-day average, with trailing-twelve-month revenue down 1.1%. The unresolved risk is the latest quarter's 8.4% revenue growth and a 3.0 percentage points operating-margin expansion.
What argues against this viewThe strongest case against the bearish stance is the early turn: the latest quarter's revenue grew 8.4% and the operating margin expanded 3.0 percentage points. The Q3 earnings item produced a 4.81% one-day excess return with material-news net tone of 0.18.
Break conditionFrom the financial specialist: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.Tests that specialist’s reading, not this page’s whole Bearish view.

Sagehood does not check this condition automatically. See research limitations below.

Valuation range

No model fair value · the exit earnings multiple model declined

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the close ($20.35) was 10.7 times the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($1.90), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $17.55).

Close $20.35 (recorded) on 2026-10-30; estimates use fundamentals to 2026-09-30.

Rejected model output (not a valuation)
Bear
$1.60
Base
$1.90
Bull
$4.20

The model’s own grid cells, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Against peers

Real Estate
MultipleWYGroup medianPercentile
P/E (TTM)32.30×16.98×67th
P/S2.10×6.29×0th
P/B1.57×1.35×67th
Score details & research limitations11 unavailable fields
Conditions Sagehood can check on its ownNot available in this run. A written break condition is not an automated check; this run does not provide a source-linked rule Sagehood can verify on its own.

Where the break condition comes from: Sagehood research took this condition from the financial specialist. It tests that specialist’s own reading, so it does not say everything that would change this page’s Bearish view.

How to read this research

The score expresses the published research view. 50 is balanced.

Bullish, Neutral or Bearish beside the score is the direction of that view, set by the research from the score: 65 and above is Bullish, 45 to 64 Neutral, 44 and below Bearish.

Confidence is how well the evidence supports this view, not which way it points: Sagehood research is asked to keep it no higher than its most confident specialist, and lower when the specialists disagree or much of the evidence is weak. It is not a calibrated probability of investment success.

Source verification checks the identity and origin of evidence. It does not prove that a claim is correct or that an investment will succeed.

Valuation estimates depend on their inputs and assumptions. They are not guaranteed future prices.

Retrospective research looks back at an earlier period. It is not a verified record of a decision made then using only information available then.

Unavailable is not zero. Read the adjacent reason: information may be missing, unverified or deliberately withheld.

How Sagehood works

The session this view is fixed to

Close$20.35 on 2026-10-30, as the research recorded it
Change on the day+3.04%
First eligible market session2026-11-02

Recorded score context

Specialist source coverage7 of 10 specialists have a verified source on this run. 3 do not.
Score reconciliationThe 7 specialist contributions shown add up to the weighted starting point this score was built from.
Change since the last accepted runPrior run is not identified in this research; score change is unavailable.

Not in this run: Run-specific score definition, Confidence band, Horizon, Why the score changed, The run this is compared with, Today's unexplained move and Blockers.

What this was built from

Filing cited in the evidenceNot recorded on this card. The newest filing on record is under Key financials, and recent filings are listed under SEC filings.
Peer set3 names in Real Estate: HST, O, VICI. How they were chosen is under “Valuation & peers”. The peer-implied median is under “Valuation & peers”.

Not in this run: Company profile date and Standing disclosure.

Not available in this run

11 fields are unavailable. Each is identified with its reason above; missing information is not zero or a negative research signal.

Price context

· adjusted close $20.35

−20.3% from 2026-06-25

Recent price-basis check: 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-30 (20 sessions). Economic comparability outside this window remains unchecked.

WY adjusted close
Adjusted price · USD · viewing 2026-06-25 to 2026-10-30

Selected 2026-10-30. WY adjusted close. Continuous series. $20.35 US dollars.

90 daily adjusted-price observations through 2026-10-30, ending at the 2026-10-30 research date. The final point is a dated final close. Shown for context, not point-in-time research evidence: the research used the prices recorded with it.

Use the arrow keys on the chart to step through observations.

Specialists

7 of 10 published specialist analyses are available.

Each specialist’s view is shown as the published research recorded it; supporting detail appears only when it was recorded with that same view.

3 unavailable

WY research

Financial specialist

Showing Financial specialist result.

Financial specialist

Evaluated for this session

Bearish

Weyerhaeuser's trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,997 million fell 1.1% and trailing-twelve-month ROE is 4.8%, but the latest quarter grew 8.4% and the operating margin expanded 3.0 percentage points, an early turn.

Full analyst note

What the specialist sees

Evidence: Weyerhaeuser shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,997 million with −1.1% growth, a 6.5% trailing-twelve-month net margin, and a 4.8% trailing-twelve-month ROE, while the latest quarter's revenue growth turned positive at 8.4% and the operating margin expanded 3.0 percentage points.

Why it matters now

If the 8.4% latest-quarter revenue growth and 3.0 percentage points operating-margin expansion persist, the wood-products earnings base would recover from the −1.1% trailing-twelve-month revenue decline, though the 4.8% trailing-twelve-month ROE remains low.

What could change the view

Countercase: The read would be wrong if the 8.4% latest-quarter revenue growth marks a durable turn, or if the 3.0 percentage points operating-margin expansion is a one-time cost swing rather than a trend. Falsifier: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.

Specialist score details
Specialist score
38
Evidence confidence
35
Base weight for this role
0.13
Base weight × confidence
4.55
Weight in the score (the chip's weight)
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.62
Business driver
Weyerhaeuser shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,997 million with −1.1% growth, a 6.5% trailing-twelve-month net margin, and a 4.8% trailing-twelve-month ROE, while the latest quarter's revenue growth turned positive at 8.4% and the operating margin expanded 3.0 percentage points.
Mechanism
If the 8.4% latest-quarter revenue growth and 3.0 percentage points operating-margin expansion persist, the wood-products earnings base would recover from the −1.1% trailing-twelve-month revenue decline, though the 4.8% trailing-twelve-month ROE remains low.
Countercase
The read would be wrong if the 8.4% latest-quarter revenue growth marks a durable turn, or if the 3.0 percentage points operating-margin expansion is a one-time cost swing rather than a trend.
Contributions & coverage details

Specialist contributions

Each specialist’s recorded numbers, in the usual specialist order, as recorded: nothing is re-ranked or recalculated. Weights and contributions show two decimals; hover for the exact value.

Financial specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
35
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.62

Risk specialist

Bearish

Score
42
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
5.38

Sector specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
45
Weight in the score
0.12
Weighted contribution
4.57

SEC filings specialist

Neutral

Score
50
Evidence confidence
58
Weight in the score
0.05
Weighted contribution
2.32

News specialist

Neutral

Score
58
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.16
Weighted contribution
9.37

Price-trend specialist

Bearish

Score
38
Evidence confidence
55
Weight in the score
0.29
Weighted contribution
11.16

Economy specialist

Neutral

Score
54
Evidence confidence
60
Weight in the score
0.13
Weighted contribution
6.92

Published specialist analyses unavailable: Valuation specialist, Geopolitics specialist, Social-media specialist. No specialist result is inferred.

  • Valuation specialist: The valuation specialist did not vote on this run because the valuation model declined to give a fair value: the close ($20.35) was 10.7 times the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($1.90), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $17.55).
  • Geopolitics specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.
  • Social-media specialist: This specialist had no checked public source on this run, so no source-backed analysis is shown.

How this insight was formed

Each specialist view shown here is checked against the published research files. Sagehood research combined those views into the one Research Score above.

Evidence & method

Inspect the reasoning, source records and valuation behind this dated view.

Sagehood research reasoningSpecialist reasoning, selected statements and filing context
Accepted publication2026-10-30 researchNext eligible session 2026-11-02point-in-time

WY: Sagehood research reasoning

Accepted research score

44

Bearish50 is balanced
Lead specialist in the research decision:

Financial specialist

Bearish

Specialist score 38Evidence confidence 35
What the specialist sees

Weyerhaeuser shows trailing-twelve-month revenue of $6,997 million with −1.1% growth, a 6.5% trailing-twelve-month net margin, and a 4.8% trailing-twelve-month ROE, while the latest quarter's revenue growth turned positive at 8.4% and the operating margin expanded 3.0 percentage points.

Why it matters

If the 8.4% latest-quarter revenue growth and 3.0 percentage points operating-margin expansion persist, the wood-products earnings base would recover from the −1.1% trailing-twelve-month revenue decline, though the 4.8% trailing-twelve-month ROE remains low.

What argues against it

The read would be wrong if the 8.4% latest-quarter revenue growth marks a durable turn, or if the 3.0 percentage points operating-margin expansion is a one-time cost swing rather than a trend.

This specialist’s break condition: A later reading showing trailing-twelve-month revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.

How the score was formed

The specialists’ weighted starting point was 44.35. Sagehood research’s adjustment was −0.35. Prior run is not identified in this research; score change is unavailable.

Evidence Sagehood research weighed

These selected claims are evidence Sagehood research weighed, not a reconstruction of the numeric adjustment.

Claims as this research published them. Sagehood confirms each claim and its support were published together with this research. That is not an independent check, and it does not prove the claim is accurate or predict future performance.

  1. Financial specialist

    Same statement as under “What the specialist sees” above.

  2. Price-trend specialist

    Close $20.35 is 12.8% below 200-day average and 2.3% below 50-day average, with the 5-year channel slope −6.6%/yr (fit R² 0.59), 2-year −12.4%/yr and 1-year −8.5%/yr; 14-day ADX (trend strength) is 34.4, rsi14W 40.4 and 126-session relative-strength percentile within the universe 18.

  3. Risk specialist

    WY shows twenty-day annualized volatility 28.7% against sixty-day annualized volatility 26.9% with volatility trend stable, drawdown from the one-year high −22.9% versus maximum one-year drawdown −30.0%, one-year large daily-move count 8, worst five-day return over one year −10.0%, downside beta −0.09 below SPY beta 0.16, and twenty-day average dollar volume $177.4 million at volatility percentile within the universe 2.

Sagehood research decision

The investment case, main risk and break condition are the ones shown under Sagehood’s view at the top of this page.

Recorded break condition
Break condition as kept in the decision trail

A later reading showing TTM revenue growth below the 4.8% sector revenue-growth median would break the recovery claim.

Evidence & sourcesClaim-support availability, filing-context links and research method

WY: This run has no checked links from its claims to their evidence. The specialists’ writing is shown as recorded, and no missing evidence is filled in.

Accepted research

Research dated 2026-10-30.

How this research was made

This research is AI-generated and is not investment advice.

Research date
2026-10-30
Valuation & peersInput limits notedFair-value cells, peer multiples and the inputs behind the range

Valuation: the model declined to give a fair value

Against the 2026-10-30 close of $20.35 (recorded)

Fundamentals reference date: 2026-09-30.

The valuation model declined to give a fair value for this stock: the close ($20.35) was 10.7 times the model’s earnings-multiple estimate ($1.90), and no other valuation method came within 3 times of that estimate (the peer-multiple estimate was $17.55).

Rejected model output (not a valuation)

The exit earnings multiple grid cells this run nominated, kept for reference. The model’s own check rejected them: they are not a valuation and not a price target.

Bear
$1.60−92% vs close
Base
$1.90−91% vs close
Bull
$4.20−79% vs close

The bear and base cases sit more than 5× from the close: extreme scenarios, shown as the model computed them.

Implied by the median of 3 peer-median multiples: $17.55 (−13.8% vs close)

Peers: the 3 Liquid 100 names in Real Estate that this run priced. Companies outside the Liquid 100 are not in the set.

The names: HST, O, VICI.

Multiples against the peer group

Real Estate · 3 companies in the group

  • Price to earnings (trailing twelve months)32.30×

    Peer median 16.98× · middle half 14.15× to 29.27× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Price to sales2.10×

    Peer median 6.29× · middle half 4.54× to 7.54× · 0th percentile of the group

  • Price to book1.57×

    Peer median 1.35× · middle half 1.12× to 2.04× · 67th percentile of the group

  • Free cash flow yield3.25%

    Peer median 7.57% · middle half 7.55% to 7.6% · 0th percentile of the group

    Free cash flow is not in the financial analysis for financial and real-estate names, and no fair-value figure in this research uses it, including the peer-implied figure.

This run declares Enterprise value to EBITDA and computes no value for it, for this company or for its peer group.

Evidence limits: 12 valuation inputs required conservative handling: another valuation input required conservative handling; depreciation and amortization were available but not used because this version does not compute an EV/EBITDA multiple; debt coverage was incomplete.

Includes the currently displayed specialist or comparison, not every specialist. Dates and limitations remain attached.

Sagehood research is for general information. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Weyerhaeuser (WY) research | Sagehood